Patrick Mahomes to Start…

It looks like the quarterback of the future, Patrick Mahomes II, will start for the Kansas City Chiefs… at some point this season. The odds are in his favor. Sure, the season is winding down, so he’s running out of chances, but there is a precedence and a pattern of Chiefs back-up QB stating at least one game each season for the past five years….

• In Alex Smith’s first season with the Chiefs in 2013, he started 15 games. Back-up QB Chase Daniel, started the last game of the year in week 17 vs the Chargers on December 29, 2013 (a 27-to-24 loss in OT).
• In Alex Smith’s second year with the Chiefs in 2014, he also started 15 games. Back-up QB Chase Daniel, started the last game of the season in week 17 vs the Chargers on December 28, 2014 (a 19-to-7 win).
• In Alex Smith’s third campaign with the Chiefs in 2015, he started all 16 regular season game. The only time that has happened in his five years with the organization. So far.
• In Alex Smith’s fourth year with the team in 2016 (last year) he started 15 games due to a concussion. Back-up QB Nick Foles started the other game and beat the Jags, 19-to-14 on November 6, 2016.

Alex Smith also missed half of a game the week before, when he suffered the concussion. Foles came in and played about half the game going 16-of-22 for 223 yards passing while leading the Chiefs to a 30-to-14 victory in Indianapolis.

Now, let me be clear, in no way do I want to see Alex Sith injured. Nor am I predicting he will be injured. What I am saying is that there are two ways we may see Patrick Mahomes start this year and one of those is through Alex Smith needing to take time away… for what ever reason. The second reason we may be seeing Mahomes slinging the ball around a football field during a game this years is… if the Chiefs are ahead in the AFC West — which is fairly likely — going into the last week of the season, head Coach Andy Reid will have every reason to sit and rest Smith, while gaining critical information about his rookie phenom apprentice.

Of course, there is a another motivation Reid may have to start Mahomes one of these last three games — especially if the Chiefs KNOW mathematically that they’re in the playoffs — because Reid will want to know if trading away his five-year starter Alex smith this coming offseason is feasible, and thereby opening the door for his rook, is a good idea or not.

Some QBs can come into the league and start right away and learn on the job. Others, even like Aaron Rodgers, learn a tremendous amount by sitting behind a knowledgeable and experienced vet for a few years. Consequently, getting to see where Mahomes is at in his development can help Reid to determine which switch he’ll flip: start in year two… or start in year three. I’m 99% in doubt that Reid will wait more than one more season to give Mahomes the reins of this offense. 

If the Chiefs beat the Chargers at Arrowhead two days from now, you can almost bank on Patrick Mahomes starting in week 17 vs the Broncos in Denver. The Chiefs finish the regular season by hosting the Miami Dolphins (currently 6-and-7) a week from Sunday, on Christmas eve, then traveling to Denver a week later. The Chargers finish their regular season by traveling from the West coast, to the East coast, to play the New York Jets on Christmas eve, then they host the Raiders in Los Angeles… which will likely feel more like a Home game for the Raiders who spent 13 seasons there from 1982 to 1994.

The chance for Chiefs fans to see Patrick Mahomes start in Denver comes down to the next two games (mostly just the Charger game). Here’s what it will take:

1. If the Chiefs have beat the Chargers… and lost to the Dolphins, even if the Chargers bet the Jets in New York, the Chiefs would have the tie-breaker even if they lose to Denver because they swept the Chargers.

2. If the Chargers beat the Chiefs … and then lose to the Jets, if the Chiefs beat the Dolphins and both teams have the same record — and more importantly, the same divisional record at 3-and-2 going into their last game… then the 3rd tie-breaker would apply, which is: “Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (games played against the same opponents).”

TheBigLead.com explains it like this:

“If the Chargers win, they do not clinch the tiebreaker. They would have the one-game lead, but would lose a tiebreaker to Kansas City at 9-7, whether they lose at the Jets or vs Raiders. The Chiefs would win a two-way or three-way tiebreaker at 9-7 over either the Chargers, Raiders, or both, based on division record or conference record.”

Of course, the Raiders do have a chance but, everything must go their way and the Chargers beat the Chiefs and then the Chiefs must lose again as long as the Charger lose at least one game… as well as… the Raiders must win-out as they host the Cowboys and then travel to both Philly and then to Los Angeles to finish the season against the Chargers.

If you want to see Patrick Mahomes play this season… the Chiefs must beat the Chargers two days from now. That’s what it really comes down to.

While I’d personally like to see Alex Smith stay another year… I also wouldn’t mind getting a glimpse into the future. Can you imagine a QB whose arm is so strong that he could overthrow Tyreek Hill? Me either… but I like thinking about it.

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