So, the Kansas City Chiefs have finally broken through the wall that has been in place since 1983: not drafting a first round quarterback. Now that they’ve gotten their man, it seems clear that Patrick Mahomes II has the right stuff but the question is, what will it take to get him ready to take the Chiefs to infinity and beyond.
Physical Gifts and Traits
First of all, a QB must have certain physical traits that allow him to execute an NFL offense. Arm strength alone does not a good quarterback make. Think Jeff George (I apologize for making you think of Jeff George… dang-it-all… I’ve done it again). The challenges for Patrick Mahomes will be finding enough discipline to cut down on his inconsistencies. There are times when Mahomes has felt pressure in the pocket but he’ll throw the ball off the wrong foot, or if he has too much time will almost wind up, like a baseball pitcher, and over-stride. So, looking at his own uneven performances and making those adjustments may end up being his biggest challenge.
Why might those inconsistencies be his biggest challenge to overcome? Because those bugs in his mental programming could lead to bad habits that can limit his effectiveness in the long run. If he’s able to make those mental/physical adjustments early in the process, he should be able to adapt and succeed, eventually. In an article by B.J. Kissel for kcchiefs.com, Brett Favre was interviewed and said,
“The hardest thing to do is be patient. I know I wasn’t. When they’re not screaming your name anymore [before you become the starter], it’s easy to drift off into la-la land. The most important thing is to gain all of the knowledge you can. Grab your coach and ask him to watch a little extra film. Grab film of other quarterbacks and see what they do—see if you can pick up a thing or two from those guys. Pull the coordinator back and ask them what they’d do in certain situations.”
The QB-HC Connection
I’ve always believed that the most important factor in the success of a young QB is the pro coach he gets to play for. Andy Reid has had the reputation of being a QB Whisperer and whether that’s deserved or not, he certainly knows how to make all his players feel comfortable with the process and gets to know each of them personally. If you’re judging Reid by the players who have played for him in the past, almost without exception, they adore him and make sure to connect with him following games. That legacy has also become his lunch ticket. In a piece written by Terez Paylor for the KCStar called, “Rookie Quarterback Prospects Like Idea of Playing for the Chiefs Coach Andy Reid,” Deshaun Watson said,
“I’m a huge Andy Reid fan and what he’s been able to do with all the quarterbacks he’s done in his coaching career and what he’s doing with Alex Smith is just awesome.”
Deshone Kizer and Patrick Mahomes II were also both aware of Reid’s reputation for being able to work with quarterbacks and develop them. Why else would they all want to come and play for him?
Consequently, it appears that Patrick Mahomes has a much higher degree of possible success because he not only has Andy Reid working with him but he is already making the necessary adjustments to make it work at this level. After Patrick Mahomes first mini-camp, Andy Reid said of the rookie,
“He had great questions. He studies hard. If he doesn’t know it, he’s going to ask you and then he’s going to go do it. He doesn’t make the same mistake over and over. That’s a plus.”
The Importance of Vision
Patrick Mahomes has good vision. That means that he can see receivers downfield who are coming open as well as the other receivers who are available for him to hit if he changes his mind. Does that mean he knows all the routes? No, but in the world of scouting, there’s a list that they keep called the Deal Breakers. One of those deal breakers is, lack of vision. If a QB can’t see the field, regardless of whether or not he can make the throw, then there’s no way a team will consider investing, draft capital and millions, in that QB.
Dane Brugler of CBS Sports points out that Mahomes, “Keeps his eyes elevated to reset and deliver on the run.” While I don’t think Patrick Mahomes scans the field as well as Marcus Mariota did coming out of college, he actually is always looking to make the “big score.” While that sounds wonderful to most Chiefs fans, it can also be problematic.
Patrick Mahomes will need to learn to “win each play” instead of trying to “win the game on each play.” There were many games when he’d put his team on his back and make it happen. On October 22, 2016, he threw for 734 yards (you read that right, it’s not a typo), and he ran for 85 yards to set a record with 819 total yards from scrimmage in one game. More importantly, his team lost that day to Oklahoma, 66-59.
Which brings us to the West Coast offense and it’s basic premise.
Preparing for an NFL Playbook
The size of some NFL team playbooks might look like a copy of the DMV Driver’s Manual compared to Andy Reid’s “Lord of the Rings” Trilogy Reference Library… size-wise. In the case of Andy Reid’s West Coast — amended and revised and edited and annotated — playbook, and although it may be longer than ever, it’s still essentially a WCO. The WCO relies on the execution of timing routes and precise pass plays and depends on being run with machine-like efficiency… ideally.
While Andy Reid would like his offense to operate like “Clockwork,” Patrick Mahomes operates a little more… organic. Consequently, the structure may be stifling to him at first but if he learns the system, it can set him free in the long run.
Normally, in a WCO, the short passing game with well-timed routes is meant to draw the defense in as a game evolves and bring the corners tighter on short routes. Once that happens, the long range passing game and big-play part of the offensive playbook opens up. In Andy Reid’s WCO version, he likes to show defenses all the sets throughout the game so that they must play, close and tight on one play and deep and wide on the next… and then wide to the sidelines on one play and down the middle, up the gut, on the next. He varies his play calling from the normal WCO playbook quite a bit.
In Patrick Mahomes world, the long bomb big-play part of the passing game is his bread and butter… more like his steak and potatoes. So, he’ll need to learn to bake with Reid’s WCO Cake Mix Recipe if he’s going to succeed at being a chef… err… Chief..
On the flip side, Andy Reid may be getting weary of Alex Smith’s inability to stretch the field and hit his receivers long to force defenses to respect that part of his game plan. When your own personnel limits your choices, it can squash the best-laid plans a coach may have for his team. So, it’s easy to see why he’d be attracted to a player with Patrick Mahomes skillset.
Patrick Mahomes Skillset
• Athleticism– superior. Above the 95th percentile for QBs (see his Sports Science video below).
• Arm Strength– superior. His arm strength is up there with the best ever.
• Feet- excellent. This is different than footwork in the NFL (most college QBs aren’t experienced at the 3, 5, and 7-step dropback passes required at the next level).
• Accuracy– excellent but inconsistent at times. Mahomes must focus on using sound mechanics on a consistent basis. 65.7% completion rate in 2016 (by comparison, Alex Smith was at 67.5% his last year of college, with both players coming out after their junior year in college).
• Release Time– can be excellent but his athleticism is both a blessing and curse as he rushes some throws and needs to learn when to throw the ball away instead.
• Ball Mechanics– no one can deny that Patrick Mahomes was the most productive QB in college in 2016, but his ball mechanics needs work. He sometimes holds the ball to low on his chest so takes him a little longer to lock and load for a pass.
A Realistic Projection
After working with Patrick Mahomes in minicamp, Andy Reid spoke of his willingness to learn but put his apparent progress into perspective,
“You give a quarterback three to four years and they start really having a grasp on it — I’m talking about even veteran guys that come in with you. We throw a lot at them. You’ve got to get to know your receivers, you need to know all those routes and how they operate against all the coverages and then any adjustments we put in. It takes a little bit of time to do that.”
You may be a fan of Patrick Mahomes II like I am but, don’t expect a Dak Prescott type outcome for him in 2017. In fact, if Mahomes gets thrown into the fray too early it may be to his detriment. Andy Reid’s plan to train him for the long haul is the best plan if we want PMII to excel.
Thanks for reading and Go Chiefs!!!
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