The Problem with Alex Smith
This year is different. Alex Smith has changed, or at least appears to have changed. No, we don’t hear him called “game manager” much anymore but what we do hear is an increasing number of fans calling for his head. It’s obvious that something’s going on with the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback. So, what’s the problem with Alex Smith?
I’ve read that “Alex Smith hasn’t changed.” I couldn’t disagree more. I would agree that head coach Andy Reid is asking more of Alex Smith but saying he hasn’t changed is not so accurate. Or is it?
We’ve all seen Alex get skittish in the pocket as the season wears on but this year he’s taken some hits to the head and recently sat out a game. Not that his problems began there and then, but from that point on it has cemented what can only be described as uncertainty and hesitation.
From Lyle Graversen in a piece called, “Why is the Kansas City Chiefs Offense so awful” he states,
“Andy Reid has to convince this team to take on the personality and identity of a running team. …. So get physical and run the ball.”
Graversen goes on to say that Reid has asked Alex Smith to shoulder the load this year by transitioning to a pass-first offense and that this is what’s changed, but not Alex Smith.
However, as with any change that a coach initiates with his team, players don’t just wake up one day and say, “Today we will play a physical style of football and run the ball with success.” If that was the case, every team in the NFL would simply do it. Besides, the west coast offensive scheme Reid operates calls for athletic linemen who can pull in the running game and play with leverage and finesse in the pass protection. They don’t just show up to work one day looking bigger and stronger than anyone else. The kinds of linemen Marty Schottenheimer employed were much different than the one’s Reid and Dorsey have stocked the team with.
The Problems or Challenges
Alex Smith’s problems… or challenges… whichever you’re comfortable with, are not insignificant. He is now 32 years old, is in his 11th year in the league and has taken snaps in 135 games. You don’t change a pattern, or how you… “feel your way as a QB”… overnight. Smith has gotten to where he’s at with a lot of success — he’s won 74 games — and a lot of failure — he’s lost 55 games (and tied one). Everything Alex has learned throughout that time… is what makes him the QB he is now (I know, it’s a very Zen statement but needed saying). Challenges affecting Alex Smith?
If Alex Smith goes through the concussion protocol… it will affect him.
If Alex Smith is asked to “shoulder” the load this year… it will affect him.
If Alex Smith has his team bring in a capable (or threatening) backup… it will affect him.
If Alex Smith is trying to prove he’s worth the maximum heart of his contract, which he’s getting this year… it will affect him.
If Alex Smith loses his favorite WR for a significant portion of the season… it will affect him.
If Alex Smith has no #2 WRs steps up to take the place of his favorite #1 WR… it will affect him.
If Alex Smith has to deal with two new Offensive Coordinator(s)… it will affect him.
If Alex Smith is asked to lead his team from behind repeatedly… it will affect him.
If Alex Smith has to deal with the loss of Jamaal Charles… the face of the franchise, his go-to guy and co-leader of the offense… and has shoulder that responsibility himself… it will affect him.
If you take that last one and realize Smith is, and has been, the coach on the field but now he’s doing that without a guy like JC to share or shoulder the load, you can see why Alex may feel overwhelmed at times. And… that’s another burden in the bucket.
We fans, see through a glass darkly, which means we don’t always see everything that’s going on with a player. So, we can be certain more than the above list of challenges has had an affect on him since the end of last season. For instance: dealing with his wife who had a Twitter war with a local news weatherman and supposedly “destroyed” him.
While saying Alex Smith is the same guy, and nothing has changed for him, may have a shred of truth to it… it doesn’t tell the whole story. Not nearly. I question whether or not John Dorsey has traded away a WR who looked like a sure lock in training camp in Rod Streater and kept a WR which everyone I know wishes he’d dumped a hundred times over in Albert Wilson… just so he could maintain some consistency in the group of guys surrounding Alex Smith. Again… a shred of truth without the whole story. Some things we’ll never know.
Coping Mechanisms
When dealing with a lot of change around us, as I believe Alex Smith has been dealing, there are coping mechanisms that can be activated like:
Compartmentalization
When a person is stressed they can split their cognition and thinking into separate areas in order to deal with one thing at a time. This may keep them from being overwhelmed. I think you can see Alex Smith doing this when he’s interviewed. He takes longer to answer questions now and is overly careful in parsing his words.
Assertiveness
To become more assertive is a helpful defense mechanisms and to determine whether or not Alex Smith has activated this mechanism… just think about his Incredible Hulk moment following game one vs. San Diego and his overtime leap into the end zone.
Intellectualization
You can understand why any and all of the Chiefs players can be seen “adapting by thinking their way through a situation.” Alex Smith does this with ease because he’s already an intellectual type. On a personal note; I know of this one all too well as my own parents used “cognition” (thinking their way out of things), as their preferred coping mechanism.
It’s not important to understand whether some of these are positive or negative ways of coping. The point is, I believe Alex Smith is evolving and having to cope as he’s evolving. The difference between him and us is that he has the privilege of doing it publically.
Long Restaurant Menus
So, what’s the “problem” with… or challenges for… Alex Smith? One way of explaining it is long restaurant menus. Bear with me here: if you’ve ever studied Operant Conditioning in Psychology 101 then you know that studies show that when a mouse is offered two choices — a piece of cheese by going one way or a shock by going the other way — it’s called an Approach-Avoidance situation. In that case the choice is easy. I’d suggest that up until this season (and prior to the challenges listed above) Alex Smith has had an easy (easier) time of it. It’s also easy to understand that when a mouse is offered two negative stimuli — two shocks — the choices cause some internal pain and coping mechanisms are activated. However, when a mouse is offered two positive choices, it can be confusing and negative for them which is called Approach-Approach. This same sensation occurs when a person is confronted with a very long restaurant menu — and it can be perceived as a negative situation.
While many may see the decisions that Alex Smith has to make as a long list of positives (after all, Alex does make more than 1.1M per game in 2016), they may not realize the “freezing” effect it can have — resulting as a negative stimuli — when trying to make decisions for a whole team and franchise.
Alex Smith’s QB Rating
Has this actually changed Alex Smith’s performances? Yes and no. No in the sense that his QB ratings are essentially the same this year as in year’s past. Yes, in that he’s not improving and he is more up-and-down this year.
In this graphic you can see that 44 of 55, or 80%, of Alex Smith’s QB Ratings fall within the 70 to 126 range. Meaning that Alex Smith has been fairly consistent with 19 of 55, or 35%, of his games breaking the 100 barrier and 28 0f 55, or 51%, of his games that break the 90 or better QB Rating. I once did a similar graph for Matt Cassel and his QB Ratings were so completely up and down that you never knew what to count on with him. Not so with Alex Smith.
Note: I’m not a fans of espn’s QBR rating system and refuse to use it because its complexities make it incomprehensible and unrelatable.
Manual v Auto-Focus
Alex Smith’s performances the past three games have been publicly projected as being on a downward trajectory but this graph would refute that idea: his QB Rating against the Bucs was a 94.6. However, this rating system doesn’t have the ability to show that other things were going wrong on the field besides the play of the Chiefs quarterback, yet we know from the outcome that this was the case. For instance, it also doesn’t have the ability to reflect the seriousness of a play like an INT in the end zone.
The problem with Alex Smith: could be called… “external pressures” which he’s dealing with. On the football field he’s hanging in there with similar consistency that he’s had in previous seasons for the Chiefs. If you take another look at his 2015 numbers you’ll see he only missed the 70-or-above target range once. Consequently, you could argue Alex has plateaued… but this season isn’t over. What we can say is that through all his challenges, he hasn’t progressed… to this point in 2016.
The AFC West
With Peyton Manning stepping aside, many Chiefs fans may have been expecting the Chiefs… and Alex Smith… to step up and seize control of the AFC West division. At the moment, that QB and team looks to be Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders. However, the Raiders have a tough road ahead as they host Carolina and Buffalo, then are at K.C. and San Diego, then host Indy and end by traveling to Denver.
In Summary
As for Alex Smith, he has plenty of time to “right” his own ship. In the past three years his QB Ratings have been,
89.1- 2013
93.4- 2014
95.4- 2015
An obvious progression that averages out to a 92.6. So far in 2016, Alex has had a 91.2 rating, which is a step backwards, even by his own average standard as a Chiefs player.
The problem with Alex Smith is… we’ve been expecting a step forward but it hasn’t happened… yet.
Now we know the “what” and the “why” of the problem(s) with Alex Smith. However, there’s no need to start a picket line toting “Dump Alex” signs in the middle of a season. His best could be yet to come. I say, let’s see how he copes and adjusts.
What do you think Chiefs fans? Want to start a picket line… or are you willing to give Alex Smith more time?
