QUARTERS: Chiefs Schedule In Four Pieces – 1st Q – Coming off their first championship in five decades, the Kansas City Chiefs are on a mission. With most of the roster intact, and handful of key additions, and rookies from the draft, the Chiefs will look to capitalize on their continuity, en route to the playoffs. The NFL is known for its parity and no schedule is easy. However, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Steve Spagnuolo, have clear path to the one seed and the lone first round bye, under the new rules, in the AFC. All of that starts with a tough slate of four games, against conference and division opponents. To emerge victorious, Chiefs will have to lean on some key players, not just established stars, but also fresh-faced newcomers.
Week 1: vs Houston Texans
On the night when the Chiefs hang their Super Bowl banner, they will face a highly motivated DeShaun Watson. That can make any game difficult. Luckily for them, Bill O’ Brien spent the off-eason jettisoning quality talent and giving real money to the likes of Eric Murray… gulp. Their embarrassing playoff collapse at the hands of the Chiefs will fuel O’Brien and the Chiefs will get the Texans best shot. Without DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans best isn’t nearly enough to beat K.C. in K.C.. Chiefs win.
Key Player: Frank Clark
Watson has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long. This is especially true when he’s forced to put the game on his shoulders, due to a poor supporting cast. Frank Clark should finally be healthy and looking to prove his doubters wrong. Expect multiple pressures, and at least one sack, from the Chiefs most tenacious pass rusher. Clark will be eager to show Kansas City that, once again, “there ain’t no fall off!”
Week 2 @ Los Angeles Chargers
While the Chargers have largely become a punchline to Chiefs fans, they will be dangerous, early in the season. When healthy (rare), the Chargers defense is one of the best in the league, rivaling that of the San Francisco 49ers. Fortunately for the Chiefs, their starting QB, Tyrod Taylor, is a perennial backup. With limited off-season practices, rookie Justin Herbert is likely to start the season on the bench. This match could prove uncomfortable close, but ultimately, Chiefs offense has faced similar defenses and come out on top. Chiefs win a close one.
Key Player: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The Chiefs drafted RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire with such defensive matchups in mind. Chargers have largely stymied Chiefs through the use of a Cover 3 Defense that is strong against the deep and middle passing game, but weak in the flats (something the Athletic’s Seth Keysor has written about in more detail). If Chargers stick to their traditional scheme, CEH is going to have a monster day. Likely racking up over 150 yards from scrimmage. Chargers have the right player to cover Helaire, in Derwin James, but they’ll likely be forced to use him to cover Travis Kelce.
Week 3 @ Baltimore Ravens
This is likely to be the toughest game the Chiefs play all year. The Ravens are both extremely talented and highly motivated. What’s more, Chiefs will be playing on the road. However, I think they still come out on top. Steve Spagnuolo has all off-season to study the Ravens’ offense, as does his on-field proxy: Tyrann Mathieu. Patrick Mahomes should be able to do enough, to support the defensive effort. The biggest factor, in this game, might be a new one. If Chiefs can get Willie Gay up to speed, I think they can, they win this game.
Key Player: Willie Gay
In back to back weeks, Chiefs will rely on contributions from their rookies. Gay will be absolutely crucial as Chiefs seek to contain Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ rushing attack. Gay has the speed, and the attitude, to make a real impact in this game. The match should be very close and a few stops, here and there, could be the difference between winning and losing. Chiefs finally have a player, in the LB core, with the ability to make those stops. They just need him to pick up the defense, mentally.
Week 4: vs New England Patriots
In the past, this match-up has been fairly competitive. This year, not so much. The Chiefs have retained all of the offensive pieces that made them a dominant force. What’s more, the defense is entering its second year, and should return to late season form, right out of the gate. Patriots have lost a piece or two on defense, and their offense has made minimal additions. What’s more, Tom Brady is gone and they’ll be leaning on 2nd year QB, Jarrett Stidham. That’s not a good position to be in, on the road, against the league’s best offense. Chiefs win.
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs defense shouldn’t have any trouble containing the Patriots’ anemic offense. The real game will be Patrick Mahomes vs Bill Belichick. If K.C. can play mistake free football on offense, they shouldn’t have any trouble scoring enough points to win the game. If Mahomes is in prime form, this game could get out of hand for the Patriots, very quickly. Chiefs Win.
Despite a tough schedule, to start the season, the Chiefs should emerge undefeated. Andy Reid has the cast of characters to return this offense to 2018 form. Patrick Mahomes is finally healthy and Clyde Edwards-Helaire gives K.C. the piece they’ve been missing, to deal with elite defenses. Steve Spagnuolo and most of his defense, will enter the season comfortable with the scheme and roles of individual players. This should lead to a fast start, but significant improvement, for that side of the ball, will come when Willie Gay is able to take hold of his new role. If he can do that, early in the season, Chiefs’ defense will take a substantial leap in production. Injuries will always play a part but, on paper, this looks to be a team that’s slightly better than last year’s squad. That spells trouble for the rest of the NFL, but especially the Chiefs first four opponents, the Texans, Chargers, Ravens and Patriots, who will likely have to face the Chiefs at full strength.
Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne
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