Jaguar Week: Ramp Up a Rampant Offense and Kudos to the Defense too!

David Bell

All too often, fans, sports writers, and analysts think the sky is falling when a football team doesn’t live up to expectations on a given week. For example, the Chiefs were averaging 31.6 PPG before facing the Titans. That number dropped a bit after the game, which was easy to anticipate. After the Titans, the Chiefs PPG was 30.4.

Scoring

I expected 30+ PPG because that is what the offense is capable 0 points, having done that beforeof 7 games (prior to playing the Titans). So, when I think about it, my judgment boils down to saying that we fans are spoilt. We see the numbers, but those numbers are averages across multiple games. So, the Chiefs have scored 40 points or more three times this season. So, we fans intimately think that we should expect those types of numbers each week the Kansas City Chiefs play football.

We fail to realize that the same diversity of scores and the opponent’s power affects that outcome. Sure, the offense was averaging over 30 PPG. However, consider this math lesson: the Chiefs must have scored less than 30 to average a number like that. It would balance out the three games in which KC scored more Titans with 20, allowing only 17 to the Titans. 0 points. The Titans game was against a formidable opponent, and the Chiefs were held to a score of 20 points, in overtime, no less. At the same time. adime, the Chiefs held the Titans to 17 — kudos to the Chief’s defense in a rough and tumble game.

In 2022, we scored only 27 to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week Two. The following week, we lost 17-to-20 to the Colts in Indy. Then KC turned around and scored 41 vs. the Bucs. Next up, we lost to the Bills 20-to-24, whipped the 49ers 44-to-23, then the Titans game. So the number of times KC scored in the 20s or less in 2022 is 4. The number of times the Chiefs scored 40 or more is 3.

Sacks Given Up

Fans see things as they watch the games, but note that the Edge defenders are noting to the QB. I think from fan input is the unrealistic expectation that this player, or that player, will have a sack every game. It’s hard to bring reality to our outlook. Currently, the Chiefs rank 6th in the NFL in sacks given up. That is a good number for any team, meaning 26 other teams have fared worse in that category. The Chargers and Cowboys lead the NFL with 10 and 12 sacks given Someectively.

So… some fans complain: “Our offensive line is horrible at protecting Patrick,” and it’s simply not true.

Even though Mahomes magically avoids pressure and sacks, he also causes part of the pressure due to his style of play. He is drops back 5 or 6 yards — sometimes 8 or 9 — and he holds the ball 3+ seconds frequently and tries to find a receiver. After 4 seconds, Patrick is already seeing how to evade the rush. He dances, slides and escapes, extending plays frequently. and extends most every play. This is all like the value of having Mahomes as our QB. The ability of Patrick Mahomes to see pressure unfolding and to avoid a sack is due to Patrick’s vision and his ability to read the play as it unfolds.

The OL Can’t Block for RBs for Spit

I watched the game and replayed it three times. On this one, you’ve got the point. I posted a quote from Seth Keysor’s review of the Running game snaps vs. the Titans. There were few enough run plays (13). That number doesn’t include the times Patrick used his feet. 13 of close to 100 plays is not a good sample, but you can say this about the results: almost every running play gained 2 yards or less, was stacked at the LoS, or resulted in negative yards.

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Two (2) plays in this tally were RB plays where significant gains were negated by penalty flags.

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Andy Reid called 5 running plays in the first half. They collectively yielded only 5-yards gained. I previously observed that the play mix was ineffective. I mean that Reid and Bieniemy need to make their running game playcalling dynamic and unexpected. Mix in the called running plays on first down when the opposition expects it — or not calling running plays in a combination of passes and runs keeps the defense from cheating.

I observed two points since Andy Reid became Head Coach when the Chiefs shifted their blocking scheme away from the more complicated scheme with too many moving parts that must work for a play to be successful. Years ago, Matt Nagy moved away from the ZBS to accommodate the OL and the player’s capabilities. He reduced lateral movement to only require lateral action across a single gap. He also deployed the power-blocking scheme, with a lead blocker and possibly an OG hit the hole being pried loose to be more assertive in getting to the second level.

It seems to me that Andy Reid’s blocking scheme has once again become far too complicated and RBs are stuffed too often because one or more components of the scheme of a particular play fail to accomplish their task. Hence I am calling for reducing required moving parts and going with gap/power blocking more frequently.

ZBS Power/Gap Run Worked

One of the plays that was negated by a penalty was a 12-yard gain by Isiah Pacheco. The ZBS worked, and a pulling OG led into the Gap on the left side. Brown and Thuney held the edge and the pulling guard went through the gap, getting to the second level and taking out a Linebacker. I recall the previous week to the 49ers game in which there was a similar play on the right side in which Jerick McKinnon was the running back. That play also gained a dozen yards.

Whatever the problem with the running game, the folly of glittering generalities is what I heard from Eric Bieniemy’s presser. It didn’t match what I saw during the game and the replays I watched. Therefore, I think it’s time to divest ourselves of Mr. Bieniemy and reinstate Matt Nagy as the Offensive Coordinator.

Sacks

The Chiefs measure up pretty well, considering their numbers are tallied for only 8 weeks. The Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL with 33. The Chiefs will likely move up a couple of spots after week 9. See the table below:

Team	Games	Sacks	Rank
Dallas Cowboys	8	33	1
New England Patriots	9	32	2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	29	3
Baltimore Ravens	9	27	4
Seattle Seahawks	9	27	4
New York Jets	9	26	6
Philadelphia Eagles	8	26	6
San Francisco 49ers	8	26	8
Denver Broncos	8	24	9
Tennessee Titans	8	23	10
Buffalo Bills	8	23	10
Washington Commanders	9	23	12
Indianapolis Colts	9	23	12
Kansas City Chiefs	8	22	14

Pressures and QB Hits are part of the defensive effectiveness.

Overall Defense Ranking Through Week Nine

In eight games played, the Chiefs overall Defense ranks 18th. A lot of different stats go into determining the ranking. Recall that I predicted the Chiefs would rank in the top-15 by the end of the season? At 18, they are getting close to getting to that stature. The next stop is improving enough to get ranked in the top 10. That is still possible too. To this point, we’ve had players missing, including Trent McDuffie, Willie Gay, Jr., and Frank Clark. Versus the Jags, Frank Clark will be the only player out. He will return in week 11 after being suspended for two games.

The Jaguars

I won’t make light of the Jaguars. Indeed, I wouldn’t want to take the Carolina Panthers as easy prey, either. The Jaguars are still at the one up from the bottom of their division with a 3-6 record coming into Arrowhead Stadium and facing a powerful Chiefs team on the road. I won’t say that this game should be anticipated to be a “yawn” because games like this can fall to underestimating a foe, being overconfident, and/or taking the game for granted. Still, those are the teams that can come back and bite you, the “On Any Given Sunday” type of worry.

The Jaguars have a dangerous head Coach who grew from Andy Reid’s Tree –> Doug Peterson. Peterson already has a Super Bowl Trophy on his tally sheet. Why the Eagles moved on from Doug perplexes me still. Here is Peterson’s Jax Presser at this site:

https://www.jaguars.com/video/doug-pederson-this-is-a-great-opportunity-for-our-guys-press-conference-jacksonv

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Peterson went on to say that this was a great opportunity for the Jacksonville players. DC Mike Caldwell also spoke at the presser, defining what the Jaguars could do to slow down the Chiefs. He spoke glowingly of DE Dawuane Smoot, observing the nature of what Smoot can do.

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Turn him loose, and he can play inside, and outside, drop into coverage and do each of those things dynamically. That makes him a versatile threat. They also have decent linebackers to back up their defensive front. At the same time, I do not see a ground game threat that will take advantage of the Chief’s defense.

When you consider the Jags QB, Trevor Lawrence, who is playing in his second season, he has had his ups and downs. Lawrence has a RB growing in NFL stature to call upon: Travis Etienne, Jr..

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Ground Game? The Jacksonville Jaguars rank as 3rd in the AFC South right in front of the Houston Texans. The South has had nothing to write home about for any team in the division. That’s just a fact.

Chiefs LBs Built For This

This game will be right in Nick Bolton’s wheelhouse, as well as the speed of Willie Gay in lateral movement.

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Willie Gay’s work as the off-side linebacker. Side to Side, Gay is quick:

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Add to that the solidity we have seen from LB Darius Harris. I cannot see DC Steve Spagnuolo going to a 5 man front, but he knows that he can go to that if the need arises. He can trust the players to shift gears on the fly as they did in the Titan’s game. That’s a big factor going down the road to the end of the season.

DB Coach, Dave Merritt’s Cornerback crew, looks equally versatile as it grows up on the fly. It’s funny but L’Jarius is not the Veteran of the crew with Rashad Fenton’s departure.

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Trent McDuffie returned this past week and continued the successful play that he showed in Week One.

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I truly do not see a threat from the Jaguar toolbox. That tells me the Chiefs have no great worry–if they play Chief’s football, they should get a solid win.

Defending the pass and his ability to pursue sideline-to-sideline should provide great support for Joe Cullen’s front four. Another player that should have a good game is Khalen Saunders, who had a powerful game and a sack vs. the Titans. More of that and special mixes of defenders should give the Chiefs another under-20-point night as a defense. Maybe even under 17. That would be great to see as well. Keep Grinding as a unit, and the prowess of the defense will continue to rise.

Jaguars at the Chiefs?

The Chiefs have a definitive advantage playing at Arrowhead. Does that mean they will score 30 or 40? Nope. The Chiefs are hot–the Jags are not. I do like the potential of the Jags QB Trevor Lawrence, but he is taking big hits each game.

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He doesn’t have the surrounding tools to be a great threat. One of the things I heard from the preparation presser is that they understand what the Chiefs present. There must do? Don’t make mistakes to have a chance.

Predicting An Outcome?

Again, the players looking at the work at hand won’t underestimate the Jags. The Strength of the Chief’s offense should overcome any defensive prowess of the Jags. They are anticipating a physical game. My bottom line is that the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and no other team has a QB that can match him.

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Final Score: Chiefs 35, Jaguars 17. Maybe worse than that.

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David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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