Relax

That’s my recommendation. Relax. Chill Out. Find some patience!

In the first few days of free agency Chief’s twitter and some fans, in general, are losing their minds. The Chiefs only have two new additions. Justin Reid is one, a safety from the Texans. Many don’t see this as a real positive addition since it appears inevitable that he will simply replace Tyrann Matthieu. He is a younger, faster, and more aggressive player with size and height that Tyrann Mathieu does not possess. His ceiling is high and the floor is already proven. At 25, Justin Reid is a very good acquisition.

Reid was calm, cool, and collected at his initial press conference with the Chiefs. He has been complimentary of the Texans, and indicated a great deal of confidence and leadership as he spoke at the event. He is stepping into big shoes, acknowledging it while complimenting Tyrann Mathieu. Reid is a good spokesperson and knows how to take the microphone and do well.

On Friday, the Chiefs added their second outside Free Agent, signing JuJu Smith-Schuster who will arrive at the kingdom destined to finally fill the #2 WR role that has been lacking since Sammy Watkins leaving Kansas City environs.

JuJu signed a contract for a 1-year period that is not the $10.75m as reported. He is coming off an injury year and Brett Veach took advantage of the situation. Smith-Schuster signed a contract as follows:

The deal has a base value of only $3.25 million, per a source with knowledge of the deal. Of that amount, only $2.49 million is fully guaranteed at signing.

He gets a signing bonus of $1.455 million and a fully-guaranteed base salary of $1.035 million. The rest of the base package comes from a workout bonus ($250,000) and per-game roster bonuses ($30,000 per game, or up to $510,000) along with $7.5m in incentives. $2m of that amount hinges upon the Chiefs getting to the AFC Championship game.

This was a great signing with a high upside orchestrated by Brett Veach. It is “advantage Chiefs” but JuJu can reap a reward with his performance.

The Chiefs have also lost Charvarius Ward, a much-improved corner and so far there has been no movement to replace him. I would expect La’Jarius Sneed and Rashad Fenton to man the outside and for the Chiefs to find someone cheap or someone already on the roster to watch the slot. So while this is a loss I don’t believe it’s groundbreaking. Charvius Ward deserved the payday. I am sorry he is departing but the NFL is a business. Ward took care of business on the field and was rewarded accordingly.

Also lost to Free agency is WR Byron Pringle who garnered a huge payday by signing with the Bears. His 2021 Contract was for $2.1M. His increase as a four-year pro is lucrative:

Center Austin Blythe signed with the Seahawks.

It’s possible that all 3 of the players signed away so far will figure into the compensatory pick formula. Mathieu will also likely figure into the Compensation picks of 2023 and a highly coveted situation in which GM Brett Veach finds himself for the 2023 draft. For years the New England Patriots watched players leave them and people wondered how they could keep on winning. I believe these extra picks were a huge benefit to them.

So let’s talk a bit about the other teams in the AFC West. First though, since Patrick Mahomes has been the quarterback in KC the Chiefs are 21-3 against the division. In that time we have never lost a divisional road game.

The Pundit Darling Los Angeles Chargers

We need to examine what appears to be the expert pundits’ annual allegiance picking their darling, the Los Angeles Chargers. It seems that every year the Chargers are predicted to be AFC West Champions. It hasn’t happened for six straight years.

LAC has added J.C. Jackson at the cornerback position. Jackson is a player that most analysts had as the top cornerback of this year’s free agent crop. The Chargers also acquired Khalil Mack via trade and their yearly cap hit from him is around 20 million. Justin Herbert is an amazing young quarterback. If I were ranking players I’d draft in the entire league he would be my 3rd pick. But he still has not been to the playoffs. Will this team be hard to beat? Absolutely, but I fully expect the Chiefs to still come out on top.

The Broncos

As I see it, the Broncos are the most improved AFC West team this off-season. Anytime you can get a future hall of fame quarterback still in his mid 30’s your team is going to be better, especially with what you have trotted out there at the position the past few years. They also signed a solid pass rusher in Randy Gregory who has quite a checkered past. But remember something. The last time the Chiefs lost to the Broncos it was 2015. That was the Broncos last Super Bowl win. We still beat them one of the two games that season and nearly swept them. The Broncos that year had good fortune fall their way on their way to the title. So while the gap has been closed quite a bit, I still expect us to be fine against the Broncos.

The Raiders

Finally, let’s take a peek at the Las Vegas Raiders. The men in silver and black signed Chandler Jones to beef up their pass rush. Has anyone noticed a theme here? Teams have discovered that the best shot they have of beating Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is to get pressure with the front four and drop everyone else back into coverage. Every single AFC West team has addressed this need. The Raiders also made a blockbuster trade to acquire Davante Adams giving the nearly 30-year-old receiver 28 million per year. Have they improved with these moves? Absolutely. Have they closed the gap enough from last year where they lost to the Chiefs 41-14 and 48-9 in the two head-to-head matchups? I very much doubt it.

The Chiefs

According to the odds-makers, The Chiefs are still pretty heavy favorites according to Vegas to repeat as AFC West Champs for the 7th straight time. Winning their 6th straight last year broke the previous division record held by the Raiders in the 1970’s and that is no small feat. One more AFC West title and the Chiefs will tie the Rams of the same decade for the 2nd longest division-winning streak for division titles in NFL history.

A Last Look

Let’s face what appears to be the facts about the Chiefs in the AFC West. We are looking at a soft reset to ensure long-term success. Other teams in our division are going all-in right now to try and dethrone the Chiefs from both the AFC West as well as the AFC in general since they have hosted 4 straight title games. The AFC West teams are desperate. In 2-3 years many of them will be in cap hell signing guys that feel a lot like our signings of Justin Houston and Eric Berry. Signing older and often injured players to high-dollar contracts often does not work out. In point of fact, we have only to look at the Frank Clark Contract to see the light. While we are using our 9 draft picks and signing guys in the later stages of free agency our division rivals are paying top dollar, contracts which are $20 million-plus annually, which are commitments to players who are largely past their prime.

Even with the shakeup with signings by AFC West teams, the Chiefs are still the favorite to win.

“The Chiefs are now +120. The Chargers and Broncos have fallen to +275. And the Raiders come in at +750. Before the Davante Adams trade, the Raiders had +1000 odds.” This information came from https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com.

The future is bright and the Chiefs are still the team to beat.

RELAX.

Shawn Sorter – ArrowheadOne