The Right 53: How Many Are Already On The Roster?

As we approach the draft, there will be many articles written around who should be selected, where do we have needs, where should we upgrade, and many other variations. These are all great ways to slice and dice the roster and available talent to try and identify who should end up on the final 53 man roster. Today I would like to evaluate the team as of year end, based on Pro Football Focus (PFF), Injured Reserve (IR), and career performance.

For sake of simplicity, I am going to stay away from cap implications, contract term/renewal, and ability to return from injury. This is simply trying to focus on their performance and whether they should stay or go. The injuries are left to the doctors/trainers and the contracts and salary cap to John Dorsey.

I pulled the end of year PFF ratings for those on the roster as of year end, those that played but were on IR, and for a few had to get 2015 numbers. For Tyler Bray, I just set him to 50, since he doesn’t seem to know where the field is.

These are grouped by position group and also by offense and defense. I wanted to get a look at how strong the groups were and see if I could spot any areas of strength or weakness. Here is what I found.

As you look at the color codes, I am coding Yellow as a Strength, Red as a Weakness, Brown as IR, and the Purple shows where I used prior year or set to 50. For the Strength and Weakness ratings, I am considering which team the position is on. For instance, a first team QB vs a second team QB has a different bar for whether they would be a strength or not.

First Team Offense

I put Jamaal Charles and Parker Ehinger back into this group.  Even considering Charles wasn’t having a good run in 2016, this group was pretty solid as a unit.  Their overall average rating would be 74.2. While not elite, it is respectable.

One thing these annual ratings don’t really show is when the good and bad games occurred. By this, I mean that we might have lost games where several players had a bad game and won some where they played better than average as a group. This tells me that we can be much better if we can minimize the off games for players and get more of their better games.

The biggest holes are Charles and Chris Conley. Charles will either come back and be the elite player he was before or we will end up with another back in there. Conley, on the other hand, may be an issue of him not getting his number called or Alex Smith isn’t throwing his way. He has the talent to be elite. If these guys step up, then I think the offense pulls into the 80s.

First Team Defense

I brought Derrick Johnson, Allen Bailey, and Jaye Howard back into this group. This group had a similar average to the offense, at 73.7. Another pretty respectable score, given all the change from injuries during the year and Bailer and Howard struggling early. If they, along with Poe, comes back to their 2015 levels, this group also jumps into the 80s.

Looking at the secondary, we see a pretty elite unit overall.  They range from an 81.8 to a 87.6. Similar story for the LBs, barring Dee Ford at a 66.5. He is probably the biggest weakness on the defense I show here. The only caveat might be if Poe continues his regression.

I really don’t see much on the first team offense or defense that needs changing or upgrading. Depending on the returns from injury, first team might be set and just looking for competition.

Second Team Offense and Defense

Second teamers on offense average a 66.8 and defense averages a 64.8. Again, pretty similar averages, with about a 10 point drop from the starters.

Here is where we see a drop off on offense and a few holes on defense. We need some upgrades at TE, WR, OL, CB, LB, and DL. The lack of depth here hurts us whenever the starters need a break and/or they get injured.

Looking at the offense, we have a big hole at receiver (really not sure how Wilson scored an 81.7, but we all know he needs replacing). When these guys get onto the field, I am sure the defense puts 8 in the box and then tees off. Even if AS11 puts the ball on target they will probably drop it.

Additionally, we get a drop off at offensive line. This contributes to missed assignments, resulting in sacks or no gains. We need to get some more depth here. Preferably with a bit of Jah Reid’s nasty.

On the defensive side of the ball, the weakness is mainly on the line, with OLB and DE. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone either, given how we saw an inability to stop the run and drop off in sacks/pressures. We need to find some guys that can move offensive lineman around to stuff the run or pressure the QB.

Third Team Offense and Defense

The last set of backups on offense averages a 56.8 and defense averages 57.7. Another 7-10 point drop off and fairly consistent.

This group also shows a continuation of the lack of depth from the second teamers. Missing receivers, defensive line support, and an underperforming CB.

Granted, the deeper we go into the depth chart the smaller the sample size. So, I am willing to give some of these guys a break based on the amount of plays they got and years of experience. However, I would also be open to obvious upgrades if they present themselves. The reality is, regardless of game plays, if they were stronger in practice, they would have been on the field.

Offensive Positions

Here is another look, grouped by position. As I said in the other look, we need upgrades on receivers and offensive tackle more so than the other positions. If we can fill some of those, then maybe take a peek at QB and RB.

Something that surprised me a bit here is the scoring of the interior lineman. I thought they were much weaker when I was watching the games.

Defensive Positions

Similar story on the defensive side of the ball. Need to address depth in cornerbacks, defensive lineman and linebackers. Safeties appear to be a real strength, along with starting CBs and LBs.

I’d say primary focus should be defensive line, followed by a pass rusher, then cornerback depth.

Roster Openings

The last thing I thought I would take a stab at is what roster spots are probably open right now. In this case, I am guessing at who might be let walk and who I think will be retained. I didn’t limit it to just the numbers. Basically, a yellow spot means I think Dorsey will be looking for a new player if possible. I also marked a few in Orange that I think might be on the bubble.

At this point, I think we have about 18 spots up for grabs and upgrade. While we might not be happy with the play of some of the others on the list, I think we have more pressing positions to fill before we get to them. Depending on who comes up in the draft, we may address them anyway.

What do you guys think? What else do you see in these views?

Until next week, there’s The Rub.