Road To The Super Bowl:
Beating The Steelers
Ransom Hawthorne
The moment we’ve all been waiting for is almost here. The Chiefs have a chance to win their first home playoff game since 1994, something they need to do to earn their shot at the Patriots. Normally when scouting an opponent, I would want to have suggestions for the Chiefs on both offense and defense. Unfortunately for Defensive Coordinator Bob Sutton, he’s on his own this time. I have no suggestions for how to stop Pitt’s offense. If you do know how to stop their offense, you’re probably either a Head Coach or a Defensive Coordinator being interviewed for a head coaching job. That said, the Chiefs can absolutely win this game because the they outclass the Steelers in two out of three phases. Here’s a look at what the Chiefs need to do.
General Observations
Pittsburg’s defense is a 3-4 alignment, but it’s very different from Bob Sutton’s 3-4. Steelers play a ton of off-man and zone coverage. They don’t press very much at the line. They have two pretty average CBs. Artie Burns is very fast… but a rookie, and Ross Cockerall isn’t the fastest or the biggest dude out there. William Gay is their nickel CB, he’s decent, but on the short side like Nelson, probably a little slower than Nelson as well. Steelers have really fast ILBs, but they’re not huge. Their team, mentality in general, allows a lot of stuff underneath, but they try to tackle immediately and tackle hard. This is a very physical defense that will try to hit you as hard as possible. They forced multiple fumbles against Miami. Their outside rushers are ok, but there’s a reason they blitz a ton. They need scheming to get pressure. Watch for stunts, zone blitzes and delayed blitzes.
Stats For Reid to Consider
While I’m not a fantasy football guy, I appreciate what it’s done for the availability of more advanced stats. I decided to look at how the Steeler’s D fares against WRs, TEs and RBs here’s how it breaks down:
|
PIT D vs: |
Yards |
Touchdowns |
Yards Per Catch |
Yards Per Target |
Completion % |
|
WRs |
2408 |
9 |
11.1 |
7 |
62 |
|
TEs |
946 |
6 |
11.3 |
7.3 |
65 |
|
RBs Rushing |
1451 |
14 |
N/A |
4.4 |
N/A |
|
RBs Recieving |
788 |
5 |
9.7 |
7.22 |
74% |
Take a close look at the yards per target stat. This essentially tells you how much production you can expect to get from each position group. The balance to that stat is the completion percentage. An average can be propped up by big plays. Chasing the big play can be a good way to get into the quick punt situations that get you down by 14 in the first quarter. Here’s my offensive game plan.
Running the Ball
Steelers are pretty solid against the run, you have to do it some to keep them honest, but don’t focus on it and don’t get fancy with it. Shazier and Timmons are fast and tackle pretty well. For all of Adam Gase’s (Miami head coach) supposed offensive ability, he tried way too many stretch runs only to see them get stuffed every time. Against Pittsburgh, pound it up the gut or don’t bother. Steelers are a physical team, they’re going to hit your receivers a lot. The run game is something Chiefs have to use to bully back. Jah Reid should see some action, as an extra blocker, his nasty is something that has helped Chiefs on more than one occasion, against teams that try to bully you on defense.
Passing Attack
A weakness for the Steelers is a major strength for the Chiefs. Travis Kelce should be targeted early and often. Chiefs should also look to use Spence Ware in the passing game. Steelers off coverage is vulnerable to physical receivers who can get yards after contact. Chris Conely should be able to have a big day as well. Tyreek Hill and Maclin need to be involved, but Chiefs might need to attack the middle of the field with Kelce and Ware first to soften things up deep. Steelers are a lot like Chiefs, in that they will allow chunk plays, but have a stingy red zone defense. Chiefs should pass more than run to stay efficient and move the chains.
Scoring
Chiefs haven’t been the greatest at punching it in this year, but they can’t afford to settle for FGs in what will probably be a shootout. Chiefs need to play with balanced aggression. Play to move the ball till you cross midfield, then take some shots deep. Chiefs might have a better chance of scoring from midfield than they would from the 10-yard line. Tyreek Hill is obviously a guy you need to lean on here.
Alex Smith
While I’m normally an advocate of Smith running, it’s the last thing I want to see in this game. The Steelers were doing their level best to knock Matt Moore out of the game last week, and they came pretty close. Smith does well when he runs, but he does poorly when he gets hit hard a lot. Against this defense, Smith needs to be very careful about when, and how far, he runs.
Stats and Analysis For Dave Toub
Some other important stats to consider are the Special Teams production of the Steelers. Here’s how they look:
-
9th most punt return YPA (yards per attempt) allowed in the NFL
-
3rd most kickoff return (YPA) allowed in the NFL
-
17th in yards gained per attempt on kickoff returns
-
16th in yards gained per punt return per attempt
If Chiefs don’t score much on offense, I hope it’s because they never get the ball. Tyreek hill should have a field day against Steelers weak coverage units. The dolphins were consistently able to do well in kickoff returns, in large part, because Steelers kicker Boswell still has a lot of the same issues he did in college. Boswell struggles with the trajectory on his kickoffs and even booted some kicks against Miami that were fielded 5+ yards outside the end zone. If Chiefs are able to rack up a couple of scores, or at least some big returns, on STs, it could give them a much better chance of winning this game. Also, if Chiefs return units can pin Steelers inside the 20, it gives the loudest stadium in the NFL a chance to work it’s magic. Go Chiefs!
This is going to be a really tough game. Perhaps I’m underselling our defense, or underestimating the difference between road Roethlisberger and home Roethlisberger, but I don’t think so. To win this game, we’re going to need big contributions from Alex Smith (playoff edition), Travis Kelce, Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill and gunners like DeMarcus Robinson. Chiefs can win this game by playing all three phases, but they’ll need to dominate on offense and special teams unless Bob Sutton has something crazy up his sleeve.
Bonus Thought
Almost everyone in the US will be rooting for the Chiefs on Sunday. If you’re not a fan of the Steelers or the Patriots, you only have one team to realistically root for on the AFC side. Let’s not disappoint Uncle Sam.
.
