Runaway Train: Chiefs Offensive Prowess Promoted Defensive Disaster

Runaway Train: Chiefs Offensive Prowess Promoted Defensive Disaster – It’s crazy to think of it now, but there was a time, in Kansas City, where fans weren’t too sure about this new gunslinger of a Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes. His style, after all, represents a substantial departure from his predecessor, Alex Smith, a proven winner, and a steady hand. As Mahomes star ascended, and Chiefs defense cratered, there was the odd murmur, that Chiefs could stand to score more slowly, that using some clock killing drives might help the defense. At the beginning of the year, they had one of the best running backs in the game, why not use him to keep the defense off the field? In the end, the analytics does show that the offense hurt the defense, but not the way you think.

The Run Game Is Dying

It’s been well known, for some time, among league analysts, that running the ball just doesn’t pay anymore. There are specific circumstances, in the Red Zone, or inside four minutes, where it’s still important, but those are the exception rather than the rule. If you want a thorough breakdown of this argument, a tweet from Ben Baldwin of the Athletic is a great start. If you want it in five seconds, it’s this: passing plays are averaging about 7.1 yards per attempt, running plays 4.3 Y/A.

Yet Alive and Well

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out which one you want to do (run or pass), but NFL coaches are stubborn. When Chiefs opponents were either ahead, or tied, they ran the ball, on average, 45.5% of the time. Doing so, they averaged 4.6 yards per attempt rushing, and 6.7 yards per attempt passing. As a fan, at this point, you’re probably thinking, of course you run the ball on the Chiefs. They were horrible against the run. Still, teams secured significantly more first downs via the pass game (57), than the run game (40), when they were leading, or tied. However, facing Patrick Mahomes made those circumstances few and far between. The opposing offense, on the season, held the ball, while trailing, 72% of the time. That’s truly incredible, as the previous year, a strong one for the offense, as well, Chiefs led just 60% of the time. This shift had a clear, and tangible effect, on the pass/run split.

Desperation Football Is Smart Football

When trailing, Chiefs opponents ran the ball just 36% of the time. It turns out that not only did this not hurt their ability to pass the ball, it significantly improved their offense, in both facets. Yards per rush jumped from 4.6 to 5.2, and Y/A passing jumped from 6.7 to 7. Chiefs high flying offense forced the opposing team to try to play faster, and score faster, and they were successful in doing so. This, in large part, was because they abandoned the run, for the pass. When trailing, teams average 6.4 yards per attempt (pass or run), compared to 5.6 Y/A, while leading, or tied.

The change in the pass game wasn’t just limited to more passes, teams also tried longer passes. Here’s a breakdown of Quarterbacks’ season Average Intended Air Yards (IAY) vs their IAY facing the Chiefs:

IAY measures how far a QB was trying to throw the ball, not the ultimate result of the play, so it’s one of the more accurate stats, showing what really happened on the field. Against the Chiefs, all but four QBs tried to throw the ball further, in order to keep up with Chiefs offense. In spite of this, the Chiefs defense only gave up .2 (that’s point-two) more yards per play, while leading, than they did in 2017. They just led a lot more.

There’s no sugar-coating it, the Chiefs defense was bad last year. However, they weren’t tons worse, situationally, than the 2017 defense. By constantly playing from behind, opposing Offensive Coordinators were turned into better coaches. In 2018, the best coaches made aggressive play calls, and let their QBs pass the ball. While an improved run defense would be welcomed by weary Chiefs fans, expect another year in which the passing game reigns supreme. As long as Mahomes keeps slinging the ball, other teams will be forced to follow suit. The Chiefs are dragging the rest of the NFL into the future, kicking and screaming. They just need their defense to get with the times.

Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne

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