Running Up ‘Hill’: Projecting #10’s 2017 Stats On Offense

The addition of Tyreek Hill changed the Kansas City Chiefs offense for the better. As a deep threat, a gimmick saver (hey a screen that went for more than 2 yards!), and a surprise scat-back, Hill produced 593 yards receiving, 267 yards rushing and nine total TDs. If the Chiefs hope to make it to the post-season again, they’re going to have to rely on significant contributions from their star 5^th round pick. I decided to look at some numbers and see what Hill’s stats could project to this year.

While it would be easy to just throw out a number, or make a comparison to another of Reid’s former receivers, I wanted to provide the most realistic number that I could. To do that, I looked at Hill’s production in both rushing and receiving. Then I looked at his targets/attempts in the 1st half of the season as compared with the 2^nd half. Then I projected his 2017 stats based on a full season’s worth or targets if Hill were to be targeted as much in the 1^st half as he was in the 2^nd.

Hill’s 2016 Passing Stats

• Targets: 83 (28 first half, 55 second half)
• Catch Rate: 73%
• Yards: 593
• Yards Per Catch: 9.7
• Touchdowns: 6
• Touchdowns Per Target: .07

Hill had 55 targets in the 2^nd half of 2016. For this projection, I’m going to assume Hill is targeted just as much as he was to end the year last year. I’m also going to assume that he produces at a similar level with those increased targets. Here’s what his 2017 numbers could look like.

• Targets: 110
• Catch Rate: 73%
• Yards: 784
• Yards Per Catch: 9.7
• Touchdowns: 8
• Touchdowns Per Target: .07

While these numbers might not scream WR #1, they’d still be the best #2 WR production Chiefs have seen in years. A couple more TDs than last year could be the difference between 10-6 and 12-4 this year. If Hill outperforms these numbers, it would be awesome, but it’s not really fair to expect much more of him in an offense that tends to spread the ball around. Next are the run stats.

Hill’s 2016 Run Stats

• Attempts: 24 (8 first half, 16 second half)
• Yards: 267
• Yards Per Rush: 11.1
• Touchdowns: 3
• Touchdowns Per Rush: .125

I was slightly surprised to find that Hill was even better as a runner than a receiver. An eighth of his carries went for touchdowns and he averaged 1.4 more yards per rush than yards per reception. The Chiefs obviously realized what a weapon #10 was as a runner because they gave him twice the attempts in games 9-16 that they did in 1-8. Here’s what Hill’s 2017 stats could look like:

• Attempts: 32
• Yards: 356
• Yards Per Rush: 11.1
• Touchdowns: 4
• Touchdowns Per Rush: .125

Tyreek Hill could have a breakout season and produce even more, or he could hit a sophomore slump and see his production dip. It’s hard to say, but for now, I’m pretty comfortable predicting Hill at 1,140 yards from scrimmage on offense and 12 TDs. If Chiefs can get a bounce back year from Maclin, a boost from Kareem Hunt and little more maturity from Kelcie, the offense might finally move from sub-par to above average. I expect Chiefs defense to be better than last year. A big boost in the offense could finally propel this team to an AFC Championship. Go Chiefs!

Bonus Thought

When you enter a particularly nasty crawlspace, there’s no substitute for a good, long, stick. It’s great for clearing cobwebs out of the way or smashing spiders. When you enter two such crawlspaces in one week, there’s no substitute for a quiet evening at home and an RC Cola. Most underrated soda in the world.

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