Shifting Focus: A Peek at the Looming Cost of Retaining a Beloved Chiefs Defender

David Bell

Too much is written across the Chiefs Kingdom about the remaining postseason games. I needed to shift away from the current match and look at the future. For the game against the Bills, the Mahomes led the Chiefs, and I say, Go Chiefs!

Let’s shift our focus to keeping Chris Jones in 2024. He’s the Top IDL with versatility. On top of that, Jones can line up as an edge rusher.

This is one of the most disconcerting situations because I wanted Jones to be the top Draft Pick. GM John Dorsey ensured that it happened and took CJ with the Chiefs first pick available in 2016, the 37th overall pick. I wrote about this before it occurred – I pooh-poohed the bad wrap that had been written about him by various analysts. I reviewed 7 games of Jones’s last NCAA season and then called it a bad wrap! He was said to take plays off and coast. I didn’t see this, which is when I cast my lot with CJ.

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CJ: the Numbers by PFF

76.9 Run-Defense grade
92.2 Pass Rush grade
91.8 true set pass rush grade
18.0% Pass Rush win rate

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Jones is an elite player with a unique skill set because he can also line up on the Edge. He will be an NFL HoF inductee, but whether it’s as a Chief becomes the question of 2024’s Offseason.

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CJ after recording 10.5 sacks in 2023 (Big Contract incentive met– then he sat) – Perry Knotts (Getty Images)

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Chris Jones has an infectious smile which one experiences almost viscerally. Recently CJ was on the bench during a game and imitated Cris Collinsworth which I found to be quite amusing. See that clip here (0:11):

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Jones Money Outlook, and Dilemma

It appears to me that Brett Veach has an upcoming major decision. In 2023, Jones sat out the first game of the season and then decided to report with an incentive-laden deal. Good for CJ and, in the final analysis, great for the Chiefs defense. The question becomes problematic. When Jones held out in 2023, I was unhappy. Here is my view of what the cost to retain Jones will become:

For Veach to consider a hefty four-year contract with a projected value of $120M — $30 million per year — with $80M million total guaranteed. This estimate (PFF) presumes the Chiefs will offer a contract extension or a new contract altogether. When you examine what it would cost the Chiefs to use the franchise tag for CJ, the average is likely to exceed $33M. If the decision is made to keep Chris Jones, it would be more advantageous to use the contract offer I noted previously.

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Note: A Franchise Tag Valuation is based on the average of the top five salaries at a given position over the past five years, and adjusted for the salary cap figure for a given season.

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Adding the Age Factor

This has got to be a big consideration. In the first year of a 4-year deal, CJ will be 30 years old. Corresponding to that is that in the 4th year, CJ will be 34. I am sure there will be much discussion among the Chiefs Financial Gurus and Brett Veach… and then with Jones’s Agent(s).

My View about the cost of a new contract is one based upon the overall view of the available Cap Space in 2024 and how to best use it. As much as I love and respect Jones, a 4-year contract for a place that is at the age of 29 before the contract is offered for $30M is not the right thing for the Chiefs to do. Certainly, it’s a ton of money in the 3rd and 4th year of the new contract when CJ will be 33-34.

On the other hand, CJ will be a HoF inductee.

This becomes a real dilemma for Brett Veach and the coaching staff. I am going to dislike seeing CJ depart to another team, but I foresee Veach and Co. passing on such a big deal for an Interior Defensive Lineman, even though he can flip to DE at times. I was also unhappy with his holdout in 2023. His agents cost him a lot of money, and the deal he signed was less than what Veach offered him.

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Dolphin Nation: Photo Credit

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The reason for that is ten other players are important to the Chiefs and at the point in their contracts who will be Free Agents in the coming year– CB L’Jarius Sneed and LBs Willie Gay and Drue Tranquill comprise the big three of players that I view crucially important to the Chiefs defense. Sans a big contract for Jones, all three of these players could be retained, which is the reason the decision points to CJ’s proposed contract is age, contract duration, and annual cap hit.

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Don’t Get Me Wrong…

I Want CJ to Retire With the Chiefs

I’d hate to see CJ depart for other environs. Before he was drafted I did a lot of research on Jones and believed he would become an elite player for the Chief–and he has become just that. When John Dorsey selected him I was very pleased. Jones became an elite player which I had anticipated.

I want Jones to retire as a Chief and add to the Chiefs HoF player group. Money becomes a hard and fast point of demarcation and unfortunately, Jones is probably going to fall victim to the reality of the cost of retaining his services. A days earlier I wrote about L’Jarius Sneed. I feel the same about Sneed as a player for the Chiefs as I do Jones. There are two more players that I will address shortly: Willie Gay and Drue Tranquill. I fear Jones is likely to be sacrificed due to that truth. Jones is at that problematic age of 29 which is another magic number in the careers of NFL players. We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. Brett Veach has other players that K.C. needs to retain. Unfortunately, we cannot keep them all.

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David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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