Editor’s Note: Parts 2 and 3 will be published on Wednesday & Thursday.
SPARQ, RAS and the Chiefs – Part 1/3 – 40 times, hand size, arm length and more are measured at the combine, and from all these numbers, scores are created for SPARQ, RAS, & SAQ. Quant geeks feverishly attempt to “quantify” football athleticism and ability, to transform drafting from a crap shoot into a science. The purpose is to provide teams more data from which to draft the “perfect mathematically created football player.”
You can picture the scene of a geeky accounting looking dude, in a dark smoked filled room, crunching numbers by abacus, desperately trying to discover the next Hall of Famer, when the whiskey guzzling, cigar smoking GM walks in demanding “Well, who is it? Who do we draft in the first?” Well, has it helped? Not really. In 2019, more rostered players were UDFA’s (undrafted free agents) than from the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th rounds combined in the NFL. By and large, the 1st round is the most successful (at certain positions). Scientific probability can’t outsmart mother nature, film, and live play.
Football Players and Athletes
These computations only measure a position’s, and players, athleticism. They do not measure football IQ, draft position, probability of making any team, NFL longevity, etc.
Tyreek Hill runs a 4.21 40. Hill is an All-Pro. Hill is a football player with incredible athleticism. Other players can be incredible athletes trying to play football. Dri Archer was fast, running a 4.26 40. Archer was a 3rd rounder by the Steelers in 2014. Archer played in 20 games, caught 7 passes for 23 yards and ran the ball 10 times for 40 yards. That is the archetype of an athlete… trying to play football.
Incredible athletes can become Hall of Famers, like the great Bob Hayes, sprinter extraordinaire, who played for the Dallas Cowboys. He won Olympic Gold in the 100 meters, and set multiple world records in the 60-yard, 100-yard, and 220 yard dashes. He was selected in the 7th round in 1964.
Who to Draft: Football Players or Athletes?
Teams want to draft football players. Track stars, other than Bob Hayes, don’t always work out or make a lasting impression (think: Renaldo Nehemiah). Usain Bolt may be fast, but can he track and catch a football thrown 55 yards downfield on 3rd and 15, in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl when his team is down 10 points? Tyreek Hill can.
Having said that, I believe if a team is choosing between two or three players with the same relative football skills, then draft the better athlete. I also believe if it is a coin flip, you draft the more athletic player, since the potential ceiling may be higher.
Does this always work? No… but players today are more athletic than ever before, so… err on the athletic side, again with the caveat, that the combine does not measure heart, soul, effort, character, etc. (i.e. all the intangibles).
I first became intrigued with athleticism scores when reading an AP article written in 2014 or 2015 and have followed it closely ever since… and I love it. It’s amazing how many times the more athletic draft picks, last longer in the NFL, sometimes if not solely for athletic potential versus on-field production. Certain players get hyped pre-combine and pre-draft, then you watch them fall during the draft. One major reason is… a lack of athleticism.
Does it always work that way? No.
Filter and Screening
SPARQ, RAS and SAQ can be used for filtering and screening purposes. For example, do not draft safeties who run a 40 slower than a 5.0 – because even the slowest wide receiver and running back is faster than 5.0. The computations provide a basis for filtering the masses. For example, if Justin Houston is the prototype OLB for your defense… then draft players with similar athletic ability.
Two sources I trust for statistical athleticism comparatives are SPARQ and RAS.
SPARQ – www.3sigmaathlete.com
3 Sigma Athlete refers to the rare NFL player who stands three standard deviations above the NFL standard pSPARQ at a given position. Calvin Johnson fit this category.
Positional pSPARQ statistics calculate the player’s standing, relative to peers in terms of Z-score. A Z-score of “0.0”means a player has average athleticism versus his NFL positional peers, while a 2.0 means his athleticism is two standard deviations above the NFL peer average.
The following reflects SPARQ and Z-Scores for the top 11 WR’s in the 2020 Draft. Denzel Mims, from Baylor, is ranked #4. His Z-score of 1.60, which means his athletic testing is 1.6 deviations above average. His SPARQ exceeds 130.0 which is phenomenal.
The NFL% score means Mims gets an “A+” versus the average wideout scoring a “C”… for relative comparative purposes.
RAS – www.relativeathleticscores.com
The ultimate goal is to provide a place where one can look up measurements for NFL players and draft prospects and compare them to their peers in several different ways.
The following is the RAS score for 2020 Draft prospect Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor.
Mims recorded a Relative Athletic Score of 9.75, out of a possible 10.0. RAS is a composite metric on a 0 to 10 scale based on the average of all the percentile for each of the metrics the player completed either at the Combine or pro day.
If the metric is highlighted in yellow, it is considered average. Green highlight is elite. Red indicates a poor score. Mims is highly athletic — which is why I like him — and he has great size on top of it. However, his only red flag (caution flag) is in the short shuttle, which may indicate stiffness and a lack of quick feet. Hmmm. I may need to lower my opinion, and thus temper my draft crush.
The question any team needs to answer is: “Can he catch a football with a corner draped all over him?” Time will tell.
If you want “inside” a prospect, each metric has a detailed explanation on the website, so I will not regurgitate that information here.
How does all this apply to the Chiefs? That’s coming in my next article (Part 2/3).
Shout out to 3sigmathlete and RAS for compiling this data. It’s a lot of work to cover 300 to 400 players. We are better fans for their dedication to their craft.
Think Abundance!
David Perkins — ArrowheadOne