Welcome to another week in the offseason and another column loaded with non-CHIEFS stuff. I do have a take on Mecole Hardman at the end, so feel free to scroll if getting to the point is your goal. However, I have a few topics to cover from my busy week before I get there. So, yes, I am using the term busy week again. But, at this point, I should just call them weeks.
For those keeping up with me, I saw a movie, hit a concert, traveled out of state, and spent substantial time on other sports. My consistent line is that I have never met a sport I don’t like. There is a ton to like going on right now.
My Non-NFL Notes
The NBA season ended in frustration for me as the local team and my Champ pick, Milwaukee Bucks, fell short. The Boston Celtics seemed to be a team with good defense, but a flawed scoring attack. They rolled the Nets in the first round, but that did not surprise me. Brooklyn favored itself as a super team with three superstars in Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. However, this team had three problems:
- Durant kept with tradition and spent half the season injured
- Kyrie Irving played less than half the games due to New York’s vax mandate
- James Harden was lazy and disengaged, which is also a tradition at this point
The second and third points led to the overuse of Durant, which emphasized point one. All of this led to a Harden trade to Philly, which sent Ben Simmons back to Brooklyn, and it looks like an equally distributed disaster. Simmons sat in street clothes all season. The result was a seven-seed date with a motivated Celtics team. Boston rolled them to set up the matchup with Milwaukee.
I was expecting Bucks in 6, but it was Celtics in 7. They have kept it going against Miami and probably have the series closed by the time this piece lands. A Boston vs. Golden State Finals is on deck. I expect a Warriors title and Steph Curry MVP, but Boston will give them a series. Golden State in 6. Steph cements his legacy as an all-timer.
On to the NHL East
The NBA is exciting, but there are more compelling stories on the ice. As of this writing, six teams are alive, but it can change quickly. The Eastern Conference features the New York Rangers and the Carolina Hurricanes, with a line trip to the Conference Finals. I have no love for teams from major markets like New York and LA, but the stage is undeniably bigger when they participate. A competing Rangers team is good for ratings, and thus the League. I expect their time is short as Carolina gets two more home games. The home team is undefeated so far. This story is nothing compared to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are already through and resting. Tampa will face the winner of the previous series for a chance to play for a Stanley Cup.
The Lightning is also the sitting champ, and winning this year means 3 in a row. That feat has not happened since the New York Islanders won 4 in 1980-1983. They are looking tough as hell and on a mission. Their recent playoff victory came over the Florida Panthers via sweep. This is wild because the Panthers won the President’s Trophy for best regular season record. Look out for the Lightning.
And Then the NHL West
The West features a matchup of the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues, and the winner gets the Edmonton Oilers. Full disclosure I am an Avs fan, but I transparently expect them to beat the Blues. They have simply too much firepower and experience not to close the deal here. The real story in the West starts in the Conference Finals. Connor McDavid leads Edmonton, and many consider him the best player in the world. Edmonton was bad for a good part of the regular season, and I’m talking about losing 13 of 15 bad. Add ten postponed games to that run, and it was bleak. All that Oiler stage setting leaves out the most significant point: they are a Canadian team.
The Stanley Cup has not stayed in Canada since 1993, when the Montreal Canadiens last won. Take a moment to absorb the fact that Canada is on a 28-year cup drought. It compares with the historic Cubs and Red Sox futility runs combined for the country that invented the sport. For Edmonton, it means a potential return to actual relevance for the first time since some Gretzky guy played there in the 80s. This is all must-see TV, and I am rooting for the Avs. It feels like their year to at least make the Stanley Cup Final. I hate to say it, but it also feels like Tampa’s half-decade. Lightning over Avs in 7 is my pick, and I hope I am wrong.
Last Weekend’s Main Event
Neither the NBA nor NHL grabbed 25% of the amount of my attention that went to the Premier League last Sunday. The Premier League does a season finale better than any other sport does a single day of multiple games. The first round of March Madness is the closest comparison, but Sunday was better. The format is simple: all 20 teams play in 10 matches simultaneously. NBC is the current holder of the Premier League, and they went big on the broadcast front. The network and 4 of their cable affiliates (SyFy, CNBC, USA, NBC Sports) carried games, and the rest streamed on Peacock Premium. I spent a glorious couple of hours at Buffalo Wild Wings with 5 TVs and my phone keeping up on everything. The day was enhanced by the amount of unfinished business to settle. Here is what was up in the air at kickoff:
- League champion
- 4th and final Champions League spot
- Golden Boot
- Final relegation spot
I just typed a ton of mostly meaningless words if you don’t follow the sport. So bear with me while I give a quick explanation of each with an NFL comparison.
League Champ
This is mostly self-explanatory, but I’ll paint a clear picture. All soccer leagues not named MLS crown a champion based on a final table. The table is the standings. There are 20 teams who play every opponent twice a home/away. A win is 3 points, a draw or tie is 1, and whoever has the most points wins. Goal differential breaks ties. That formula is simple: goals scored – goals allowed. It is an incredibly simple concept. The final day came with Man City (the sitting dynasty, had won 3 of past 4 titles, think the Brady Patriots) up 1 point over Liverpool (coming next, won that other 1 of 4 titles, consider the current CHIEFS). Both teams matched against mid-table teams with a simple goal to win.
City came out flat and fell to a 0-2 deficit. Their fans started to leave the stadium early like good little fair-weathers. Liverpool was across town (England is small and many of these teams are close) in a 1-1 draw. Another goal probably kills the City crowd and propels Liverpool to the top. Liverpool did get a second and third goal, but not until City reeled off 3 in the span of 5:36. The two matches side by side had a collective vibe of a back and forth slugfest. Given the stakes, think the Patriots 3-28 Super Bowl comeback over the Falcons.
Champions League Spots
The table is a marathon, much like an NFL season, but the best record gets the above-mentioned trophy. Non-MLS soccer does not have playoffs, but they do have single elimination tournaments for cup trophies. The biggest one is the UEFA Champions League, the best 32 teams in Europe, which is the best continent for the sport. It is a global comparison to the Super Bowl. The top 4 Premier League teams make the tourney. Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea held the top 3 spots all season. The final spot was up for grabs by either Tottenham (my team) or Arsenal (Tottenham’s most prominent rival). Those teams are one of the biggest rivalries in the game. Think CHIEFS Raiders, but the Raiders are in Topeka. The stadiums are 2 miles apart, and the teams and fans hate each other.
Tottenham entered the day up 2 points against the last place team, Norwich City. Norwich earned relegation a month ago. All they had to play for was ruining Tottenham’s day. The Tottenham Hotspur have not won anything since the early 90s and are so synonymous with coming close and losing that “Spursy” is a term. Dropping the ball in that match would have been Cleveland Browns on brand. Arsenal has been bad for the past 5+ seasons but wins trophies often. The day lined up with disaster potential. Spurs beat the brakes off Norwich to the tune of 5-0. It didn’t matter that Arsenal also won. Spurs to UCL!!
Golden Boot
The Golden Boot is the award for most goals in a season. It’s the Premier League MVP trophy. Egyptian player Mo Salah of Liverpool led with 22 goals at kickoff. The second was Korean born, Son Heung-min of Spurs was second with 21. Son scored 2 in the beatdown, and Salah scored late to share the honor. It was like watching a week 18 matchup where both the playoffs and MVP were on the table for a star QB–the highest of high drama.
Relegation
Non-MLS soccer runs as a series of leagues in countries, and teams move up and down each season. The bottom 3 go down to the lower English League Championship in the Premier League. This typically means losing the best players, smaller home crowds, and generally less revenue. AKA a lousy deal. Many NBA and MLB fans have suggested sending tanking teams to AAA or the G League. The NFL has mostly ended tanking, so think of this as the exact opposite of the #1 overall pick. However, it is still the Jags, Jets, etc., going for it. Watford and Norwich secured relegation. The final spot belonged to either Burnley or Leeds. Burnley took a 2-1 loss and will not be in the Premier League next season. Brutal way to end the year.
The Case for Mecole Hardman’s Breakout
Thanks to everyone who made it through my sidetrack, and welcome to everyone who skipped. I have another wild prediction: Mecole Hardman is about to pull a Devante Adams. Here I go again, using words to make meaningless sentences. Let’s go on a recent historical journey.
The year is 2014, and the Packers are fresh off a Wild Card playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Green Bay loses to the future NFC Champ game loser by a count of 23-20 and deems lack of firepower the culprit. Ted Thompson (RIP) and company break from their regular schedule drafting of defenders to take heralded Fresno State WR Devante Adams in the 2nd round. Adams was fresh off a 131 catch campaign that got him, and Derek Carr drafted in the 2nd round. Catching passes from Aaron Rodgers was next up.
Adams caught 38 of said passes in his rookie season of his 66 targets. Jordy Nelson was the Packers’ primary receiver that and the 2016 season. A torn ACL in the second preseason game of 2015 interrupted a 3-peat. Devante saw his targets modestly rise to 94 in ’15 and 121 in ’16, making him a notable part of the offense. The receiver room belonged to Jordy, and that was who Rodgers trusted. The other note about Adams is his nickname. It was not killer, assassin, or sticky hands. It was Drop-Vante, which was as flattering as it sounds. His brand was lack of reliability and second-fiddle status. Then 2017 happened.
2017 Season
The NFL has been on a course to offense > defense for almost two decades. This includes QB immunity, lack of PI, and throwing the book at defenders. The 2016 and 2017 seasons featured a plethora of QB wrap-up slam WFT should a defender sacking the QB do play. Rodgers went down in week six because of one. Broken collarbone lost campaign. Brett Hundley came in and led the Packers in passing to the tune of 1800 yards. He also did another thing, and that fed the ball to Devante. Adams had almost 900 yards for the season and ended up the top receiving target. Nelson did not mesh, ended with under 500 yards receiving, and became a cap casualty. Rodgers’ world turned upside down.
2018 to Present
In the course of a season or less, Devante Adams transitioned from also-ran to top dog. Aaron Rodgers had no choice but to trust him as the elder WR. Devante led the Packers in receiving from 2018 to 2021 averaging 100+ catches and 1300+ yards per season. He went from being jack to being the Mack. What changed? He definitely refined his route running. He also engrained with #12. And luck. Let’s be real. Jordy was not leaving. Until he left. The NFL is a volatile business, and Jordy Nelson ended up a casualty. Devante Adams ended up an All-Pro.
I will be the first to admit that fantasy football is as described: a fake, fantasy world. I will also debate that it captures stats that equal wins as well as anything. Here is how Devante faired on rising as a fantasy option in my highly competitive League:
- 2014: finished on the waiver wire
- 2015: sat on the bench for a finalist team
- 2016: contributed to a 4th place finish
- 2017: top 12 WR in the League
- 2018: #3 WR for the season, sat on 2nd place team, that LOST TO ME. BAM!!!!!
Devante is a stud. He reunites with Carr this year, and the Raiders will look good. Good enough for a losing record.
Oh Yeah, Mecole
The point of this whole thing is to talk about Mecole Hardman, and here we are. A trip in the time machine shows KC in the AFC Championship Game and falling short. There were 60 minutes, but #55 was offside, and Mahomes was idle in OT. Kareem Hunt could have avoided elite levels of D-baggery, but where is the fun in that. The CHIEFS decided an additional weapon was in the draft order and took Hardman at #56 in the second round. He started the season as weapons on what good teams usually do: special teams. Man, was he special making the Pro Bowl as a rookie.
At this point, we have three years of Mecole. He has not caught 100 passes in a season, and he has not hit 700 yards rushing. So here is the question: am I seriously comparing this guy to Devante Adams? Effin A Cotton!! If playing receiver were easy, I would be there instead of writing a column in the evening. Hardman has an unteachable trait: speed. If he refines his hands and routes this offseason, he will add precision to another unteachable trait: tenure. Patrick Mahomes is looking at the WR room and seeing new faces. He also sees Mecole and yearns to trust him with his cannon. This writing is hyperbole, but the numbers are simple.
The Path
Travis Kelce led the CHIEFS in receiving in 2019 and 2020. Tyreek led the Chiefs last year but now plays for the Dolphins. Patrick Mahomes targeted Hill 159 times in 2021. I sincerely hope the running game increases, but Mahomes will still sling it. Mecole Hardman has a clear and simple goal: become #2 and simply deputize Kelce. The math is simple as well. Familiarity gives the edge over JuJu and Marques. Hardman’s goal is to hit the 117ish targets Adams saw in his 2017 breakout season. Get 1/3 of Hill’s targets, which is 53, AKA the deep balls, and catch most of them. His path to 1000+ yards is clear. Patrick will look for him.
Mecole Hardman is my CHIEFS fantasy weapon target in 2022.
Last Pop Culture References
I mentioned my “packed” week. The trip out of town was a funeral–subject for another time. The concert was by LeAnn Rimes, and the movie was Top Gun Maverick. My music and movie choices are eclectic, but the quality is my real love. Both brought the heat in a major way. LeAnn Rimes has the voice of an angel and a stunning stage presence. She hit the scene in the mid-’90s as a Patsy Cline protégé. That is 100% on the brand to this day. See her.
I also had my third pre-screening of the year as well. My credentials do not include “film critic,” but here we are. Maverick follows a very welcome trend of making sequels as opposed to reboots. I raved about the Ghostbusters and Matrix sequels for continuing the story. I am getting old and am well in the mood to see Neo, Maverick, and the Ghostbusters age as well. All of these stories and their leads aged as well. I applaud the producers and directors for leaning in. We live life, and villains return. Everything must run its course. I am glad we are choosing to tell the story instead of denying it. See this movie.
Josh Kingsley – ArrowheadOne