Star-Crossed Lovers: Chiefs Unlucky in Quest to Keep Chris Jones

Star-Crossed Lovers: Chiefs Unlucky in Quest to Keep Chris Jones – From the moment he took over, as the General Manager of the Kansas City Chiefs, Brett Veach has been decisive. Every avenue of obtaining or retaining desired prospects has been explored. Unwanted players were promptly traded or cut. Perhaps that’s what makes the case of Chris Jones so curious. Under Veach’s leadership, one would have expected a contract extension in 2019, or trade this off-season. While the Chiefs made an effort to extend Jones in 2019, the failure to reach a deal didn’t lead to his departure. Instead, Brett Veach seams to be headed straight for the type of bruising contract battle that killed John Dorsey’s career. Why? It’s a simple answer really: bad luck.

The Curse of Bob Sutton

By the time Andy Reid decided to move on from Bob Sutton, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone opposed to firing. Sutton’s schemes had grown stale and the amount of latitude he gave to Chiefs players led to frequent scheme breakdowns. In this environment, individuals flourished, while the defense as a whole failed. Players like Dee Ford, Marcus Peters and Chris Jones were free to go hunting the big play without concern for gaps left unprotected or potential coverage busts. K.C. would ultimately move Ford, as they didn’t believe he could produce in the new defense. Peters had lost all respect for Sutton, and was making trouble in the locker room, so he was shipped off to the Los Angeles Rams where he would be less productive under a much better Defensive Coordinator. Chris Jones 15.5 sack season, under Sutton, set his contract expectations sky high. In a properly structured defense, Jones would have been unlikely to produce such a sack total, and may have been more willing to accept a $17M-to-$19M contract that the Chiefs could afford. Instead, his production gave him the confidence to play out his rookie deal rather than settle for an extension below his desired value.

Bad Time For A Contract Year

Skipping OTAs is pretty common, for players seeking an extension. To Jones and his representation, it was a logical move. To Andy Reid, it was pretty upsetting. While it may have just been a contract year for Jones, it was a Super Bowl year for Reid and their best chance to take advantage of Patrick Mahomes’ contract while it was still cheap. The structure of Tyrann Mathieu, and Frank Clark’s deals last year made it clear: the Chiefs were all in. With a brand new defensive coordinator, who relied much more heavily on assignment-sound football, it was critical for Jones to get up to speed. We may never know for sure, but the Chiefs early season struggles, vs the run, and Jones missing games for the first time in his career… certainly may have been a result of the time he missed. Perhaps the Chiefs hard-line stance on a prospective extension, finds its roots in last year’s holdout.

Trades Created Unrealistic Expectations

More than a few people have connected Jones’ contract demands to Frank Clark’s deal. The Indianapolis Colts’ trade, and massive deal, for DT DeForest Buckner has likely reinforced that valuation. What Jones fails to realize, is that both players were traded to other teams in order to receive those deals. Trades put pressure on teams to put together quick contracts which, inevitably, end up being on the higher end. K.C. was happy to overpay Frank Clark and the Colts were happy to do the same with Buckner, as both teams viewed the acquisitions as missing pieces to a playoff run.

The Chiefs have time and leverage with Jones. They don’t need him until the playoffs, so holding out until Week 10 — the deadline to sign the tag — wouldn’t help him much. He could hold out the entire season, but doing so would mean missing out on $16.1 million. That’s more than he would stand to gain by getting the contract he wants, instead of the one Chiefs want give him. Even so, Jones has threatened to do just that and K.C. is more likely to call his bluff than cave to his demands. They may not want to set a precedent of having holdout threats work against them.

Covid Cap Concerns

The worst piece of luck affecting the the Chiefs, however, is the same thing affecting the rest of the nation: the Novel Coronavirus. If the NFL can’t put fans in the stands, they could lose up to $5.5 Billion dollars, or 38% of their total revenue (per Forbes). With the salary cap being based on NFL revenues, the Chiefs may be staring down a salary cap decrease… when they were expecting an increase. That makes it really hard for a team that’s already up against the current cap, to add another huge contract. While the NFL and NFLPA will likely work out a deal to spread out this loss, it’s still unclear just what the cap will look like. Consequently, K.C. can’t afford to overpay Jones, not until they have a better idea of what will happen with the salary cap.

The Chiefs have said they want to re-sign Chris Jones and I believe them. Jones has said he wants to stay in Kansas City and that’s probably true. Ultimately though, a string of bad luck has made such a reunion challenging. Jones holds a high view of his value and Chiefs may not be ready to offer him that kind of money, even if they wanted to… given the uncertainty surrounding the salary cap. Nothing is impossible, but pulling off a long term extension, in the face of these challenges, is no small feat, even for a great General Manager like Brett Veach. Then again, the Chiefs overcame plenty of bad luck last year. Who’s to say they can’t do it again? Patrick Mahomes’ contract extension is the first piece of good luck Jones has had on the contract front. For the next two years, Mahomes has reasonable cap hits. Brett Veach now has 5 more days to negotiate a deal and the cap space to get it done. Even so, K.C. will require a flexible contract structure, and a frustrated Jones might not be willing to cave. We will find out soon as July 15^th… which is the deadline for an extension. Good Luck.

Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne

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