Super Bowl Myth Busters – there are plenty of Super Bowl myths out there and if you would listen to a 49ers fan long enough, and a few commentators, then you could be led to believe, or maybe put some weight into myth conclusions, such as:
Myth #1 – SF has a better defense than KC
Myth #2 – SF has a better offense than KC
As Chiefs fans, we know neither of these myths is truth or fact, but as usual, let’s prove it in the numbers, and go about our business, as usual. Anyway, we have a parade to attend.
Points Points Points
One can use 4 million matrices to compare defenses, offenses, special teams, fan attendance, beer prices, parking lot attendants, but only one statistic boils it all down quite neatly, and that is Points Scored vs. Points Allowed, which nearly equates to Wins and Losses. Unless you are the Texans, points are significant, so this analysis is solely focused on points. Get the point?
49ers Defense
Observations
The SF defense held opponent offenses 4 points below their season long average. In fact, 9 offenses were held under their season average. The 49ers destroyed offenses 6 times by holding opponents more than 10 points lower than their season average. Although it should be noted that 3 of the 6x were against teams (Bengals, Browns, Redskins) in the bottom half of offensive scoring power. Teams that barely scored above their season average however were average offenses. In fact, the 49ers faced ho-hum offenses all year coming in at an average points scored per game rank of 15.
Chiefs Defense
Observations
The KC defense held opponent offenses 3 points below their season long average. In fact, 11 offenses were held under their season average. The Chiefs destroyed offenses 6 times by holding opponents more than 10 points lower than their season average. Although it should be noted that 5 of the 6x were against teams (Raiders x2, Broncos x2, Chicago) in the bottom half of offensive scoring power. The Chiefs faced ho-hum offenses all year as well, with an average points scored per game rank of 18.
Conclusion #1
SF has had the same scheme for 3 years and now has a good defense. SF also did this with 5 #1 draft choices on the Defensive Line. Chiefs had a new scheme this year, with 6 new starters, and 0 (zero) #1 draft choices on the Defensive Line. Good defenses beat up bad offenses and the numbers prove it for both teams. The Chiefs shut down offenses more often, more consistently, and the hot streak at the end of year is unrivaled.
49ers Special Note
When the 49ers defense went against a top-notch passing offense, the Saints scored 17 more points than their season average!
Chiefs Special Note
5 teams scored above their season averages, and each time the Chiefs allowed either garbage points, or fluke points, that if taken away, means the Chiefs held ALL opponents at or below their season scoring average. Also if the Chiefs defensive front had 5 #1 draft picks, the opponents would never score!
Now, on to the Offenses
49ers Offense
Observations
The SF offense had some big wins, contributing to outscoring opponents average by 5 points per game. In fact, the 49ers offense destroyed defenses 5 times by scoring more than 10 points above their season average. Although it should be noted that 3 of the 5x were against teams (Bengals, Panthers, Rams) in the bottom half of defensive scoring prowess. On the other hand, Washington’s defense destroyed the 49ers. Overall, 12 games were against teams with bottom half defenses, proving the 49ers faced ho-hum defenses all year coming in at an average points allowed rank of 20.
Chiefs Offense
Observations
The KC offense was only contained by 2 defenses all year long. The Colts game was a fluke and the playoff game against the Texans was such a debacle, that Romeo Crennel was retired, proving the regular season score was an anomaly. The Chiefs outscored opponent averages in 14 games, or roughly 7 points a game! The Chiefs destroyed defenses 5 times by outscoring opponents more than 10 points above their season average. And only 1 of the 5x were against teams (Jags) in the bottom half of offensive scoring power (meaning we also destroyed 4 highly ranked defenses). In fact, look again, the Chiefs offense destroyed higher ranked teams as well. Unlike the 49ers, the Chiefs faced top ranked defenses all year long at an average points allowed rank of 13.
Conclusion #2
The SF offense when under-performing opponent defenses, averages 18 points in points scored! In addition, of the 8 times SF scored more than 30 points, 6 came against defenses in the bottom 33% (not the bottom half – the bottom 1/3). This is a sharp contrast to the Chiefs offense putting up 40 and 31 on the Patriots #7 ranked defense at 20 points in 2018.
49ers Special Note
SF has a one-trick pony (Kittle) and some nice pieces (Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, Emmanuel Sanders), but does not possess the same firepower or anything close to the Chiefs. They also scored fewer points against lesser defenses comparatively speaking than the Chiefs.
Chiefs Special Note
The Chiefs scored more points against better defenses, seemingly kicking into a 3rd gear against better defenses. For 2 straight years the offense has proven it can score quickly and repeatedly at will. The playoff games prove the offense is nearly unstoppable!
In short, SF is going to need more #1 draft picks if it wants to stop the Chiefs! Garoppolo will fail under the pressure.
Final Score Prediction (by the numbers)
Chiefs = 26.1 / SF = 24.9
Final Score Prediction (by David Perkins)
Chiefs = 34 / SF = 17
Think Abundance. Think Positive. Plan Your Parade Spot.
David Perkins — ArrowheadOne
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