Texas Toast: Chiefs Path To Decisive Victory – for the long time Kansas City Chiefs fan, there are few things as frightening as a game which ought to be won. Some of this feeling, undoubtedly, dates back to when the Chiefs went 25 years without securing a home playoff win. It’s not just that though, but the way they’ve lost recent contests. They suffered a two point loss, in the 2016 playoffs, to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who only kicked field goals. The following year, they flailed their way to a one point loss to versus the Tennessee Titans. These soul-crushing defeats have became familiar companions. However, fans need to adjust their expectations because, with Patrick Mahomes at QB, the Chiefs aren’t going to lose those type of games, in the playoffs, any more. This week the Houston Texans are Toast.
Andy Reid’s Tendencies
Andy Reid has been known to go conservative too early in a game, at times, but there’s a reason he does that. By holding back his best play calls, he’s able to attack teams, later, with fresh material. Facing a Texans defense with one of the league’s weaker secondaries, Reid should have no problem dialing up explosive plays. Texans’ Defensive Coordinator, Romeo Crennel, will undoubtedly employ a bend but don’t break type of defense. Unfortunately, when facing the Chiefs, that’s a lot harder than it sounds. Mahomes can eviscerate zone coverage, with startling consistency. The Texans best CB, Bradley Roby, isn’t fit to cover Chiefs 2nd best receiving threat, let alone Tyreek Hill. Expect to see a lot of Cover 2 (two high safeties) man. With Hill stressing the middle of the field, Reid will dial up Hardman and Watkins underneath, on short passes that will lead to big gains.
Secret (Hidden) Weapons
If you’re looking for game tape of Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Damien Williams, you’ll have to do a little hunting. Williams and Watkins spent much of the year injured. Hardman has flashed, but seen just 44.8% of snaps, and 8% of targets. As Texans grapple with the challenge of containing Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Reid is preparing to unleash his secret weapons. Expect a more involved Hardman, a resurgent Watkins, and the same Damien Williams who balled out in the playoffs, last year. Could Reid have plans for LeSean McCoy as well? It’s certainly possible. His fumbling has been problematic, but he remains an elusive back, who must be reckoned with. This offense, at full strength, is simply unstoppable.
Patrick Mahomes: The Nimitz
Charles Robinson mentioned an interesting analogy, the other day, on the Yahoo Sports NFL Podcast, that NFL scouts use. In regards to QBs, they ask: “Is he a trailer or a truck?” Essentially, can he drag you to the Superbowl, or do you have to drag him? Mahomes answered that question, definitively, last year, hauling the league’s worst defense within a coin-flip of the championship game. Perhaps truck doesn’t even quite do him justice. When healthy, he’s a tugboat, a freight train, a gosh darn aircraft carrier. Any time Mahomes is playing his best, the Chiefs will make it to the AFC Championship. Period. That’s the level of player that he is. Deshaun Watson is an excellent QB, but Mahomes remains a cut above.
Steve Spagnuolo and Brendan Daly
While losing Juan Thornhill stings, K.C. is still in excellent position to limit the Texans offense. If there’s one thing that Watson has struggled with in Bill O’Brien’s offense, it’s the blitz. Much of this has been covered over, by Watson’s mobility, but all too often a blitzer is screaming in and there is no hot route, to throw to (a hot route is a short route, often by a RB in the flat, that the QB can go to in the event of immediate pressure). Between Spagnuolo’s brilliance with the blitz, and Brendan Daly’s success with stunts, Watson may be in for a long day. Since Spags arrival, Chiefs’ have done an excellent job of tailoring their game-plans to the opponent. To stay in this game, Watson will have to succeed outside of structure, early and often.
Tyrann Mathieu: The Malleable Maverick
Mathieu is so many things to the Chiefs. He is the vocal and emotional leader of the defense. He’s a plug and play fix at any DB position, and maybe even WILL. This weekend, he’ll also be their best source of inside information about a Texans team that he was playing for, in 2018. Since they still have the same Defensive Coordinator, you can bet that Mathieu knows that scheme intimately. He’s probably got a fairly good grasp of their offense as well. Tyrann has played with a chip on his shoulder since peewee football and you can expect to see a little extra intensity this Sunday against the Texans (a team who got outbid by the Chiefs — and decided to pay him what he’s worth — for his services).
Chiefly Conclusion
The Chiefs should win this game decisively. K.C. has the advantage in almost every category and some alpha dogs: in Tyrann Mathieu, Frank Clark, and Patrick Mahomes, who will bring it all game long. Andy Reid has had plenty of time to plan his surprises during the bye week. Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman are poised for big production. Steve Spagnuolo, and his coaching staff, will have their work cut out for them, working around the loss of Thornhill, but their performance, thus far, should give fans confidence in their ability to get the job done. One more step on the road to the Superbowl, should be a fun one to watch and relish. Go Chiefs!
Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne
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