The Adversarial View: How To Beat The Chiefs, and What They Should Do About It

Ransom Hawthorne | May 17, 2019

As Kansas City Chiefs fans, it’s easy to be overly optimistic. Where others see a void of talent, we see potential. Where others see a glaring weakness, we see a guy who’s going to bounce back in a new scheme. Many analysts tend to revel in bitterness, or bathe in sugar water, but I think there’s a balanced approach that can be appreciated by either camp: the adversarial view. Not, how Chiefs view themselves, or how fans view them, but how would an opposing team go about game planning against them. This gives us a window to what Chiefs still need to work on, this off-season.

Rushing Offense: We (the opponent) don’t want to see Patrick Mahomes on the field. Ideally, our offense can sustain drives to keep him on the sidelines. Unfortunately, the Chiefs new defense is a lot stouter against the run now. Frank Clark is a pretty good edge setter, and Alex Okafor is even better in that area. Derrick Nnadi is really stout at the point of attack, and the switch, to the 4-3, means LBs will be attacking the gaps. Our run game should probably consist of Jet Sweeps and passes in the flat. Mathieu might cause us some problems there, but I rather try to slip the RB past the safety than ask him to run through a Brick Wall. When we do have to run, to keep them honest, we’ll probably target Chris Jones. He’s going to ruin some plays, but he’s not always the stoutest guy, against the run, and you can move him, with a double team. Against this kind of aggressive, up-field DL, we should sprinkle in some delays and inside screens. Make them think a little bit and they won’t come downhill, quite so fast.

Response: Chiefs are in great shape against the run. They need to remain disciplined against outside stretch plays, and delayed hand-offs, but teams won’t be able to run on the Chiefs very much this year.

Short Passing: Too bad Sutton isn’t their DC anymore. This used to be the easy way to beat the Chiefs and sustain drives. That pattern match coverage is a tough nut to crack, underneath. If we let our QB throw into it, too much, we’re going to risk an interception. When we do pass short, it needs to be to big targets. Their CB group, on the whole, isn’t huge, and Mathieu is short. Put some balls up there and let the TEs and possession guys go get them. Gotta be guys with good hands though, if they tip a pass, that close to the line of scrimmage, it’s a sure interception. Given that risk, the short game probably needs to be a change of pace for us, and not something we go to, too often.

Response: the Patriots were smart, the Chiefs biggest weakness on defense last year, was against the run. Patriots 3rd round pick? A big RB, Damien Harris. This year’s unit looks to be much stouter against the run, but may struggle with big physical receivers. The Patriots 1st round pick? N’Keal Harry, a big physical receiver. Chiefs need to find a large DB, they can rely on, to handle that type of player. Ward could be that guy, but depth is still needed. Keep an eye on Herb Miller and Dontae Johnson, in TC, as both are 6’2” CBs, who might match up better, against the likes of Harry.

Deep Passing: Now we’re finally getting somewhere. The Chiefs deep safety is a ball hawk, but he’s also a rookie. If they’re going to play a ton of single high, we’re going to attack the corners deep, and feel good about it. Fuller and Breeland are both pretty good against the short stuff, but neither has top of the line speed. Once we get them in the nickel, we can attack Ward, on the edge: that’s a good match-up for us. If our OL can block their DL for 3-4 seconds, we’re going to get a lot of big plays. We better have a RB who can pass block though, because I’m sure they’ll be sending some blitzes to deny us that time.

Response: It’s easy to get excited about Thornhill, and I think he’ll be an excellent player, but remember, most guys take some time to acclimate to the NFL. Just being an average safety, out the gate, would be a noteworthy accomplishment. Chiefs don’t have a lot of speed, at CB. With that DL, and a healthy dose of pattern match coverage, it’s not a huge issue, but it’s one worth addressing. Mark Fields is a guy you hope can provide that. Very fast, very fluid, not the most physical, but strong enough, and plays the ball well. Relying on an UDFA to cover Antonio Brown doesn’t look very good on paper, but it might be the Chiefs best option, later in the season. Chiefs should be watching on cut down day, or looking for trade partners. More speed, in that CB room, can take your defense to the next level. They had probably hoped Tremon Smith would be the answer, but he looked awful, late in the season against Seattle. Maybe Dave Merritt can get through to him.

Red Zone: The shortest route to success, in the Red Zone, is getting O’Daniel off the field and our RB in space. Multiple TE sets and FBs need to be part of our arsenal. Make K.C. defenders out jump our big guys in the passing game. If they keep O’Daniel on the field, in spite of the heavy set, then we’re going to pull a guard, to his side, and try to run it in that way. Maybe give the Chiefs a little taste of their own medicine with some shovel passes. Our traditional WRs won’t be good for much though. Kansas City can cover tight, especially once the field shrinks.

Response: the Chiefs need to be smart with their match-ups, in the red zone. Hitchens is mostly useless in coverage. Put O’Daniel and Damien Wilson in there. If Darius Harris or Gary Johnson can get up to speed, even better. They could even use Mathieu, or Sorenson to cover the RB. Don’t get caught up in worrying about the run. Put your nickel defense out there and trust the process.

Rushing Defense: Look we’ve got to stop Mahomes, but don’t sleep on their run game. Heck’s Zone game is strong. We have to play the run on the way to the QB. Base defense is not an option against the Chiefs though. Gotta get it done with nickel and dime. It’s not going to be easy, we just have to stay disciplined and stick to our assignments. If somebody gets out of position, Damien Williams can get gone in a hurry. If we can blitz, a lot, that helps us get some more bodies in the box, without killing us in the pass game.

Response: It’s no fun to take the ball out of the hands of the league MVP, but it might be the most straightforward way to win games, at times. Teams will be way more worried about the passing offense, and be willing to give up the run. You gotta be ready to take it, at least enough to keep them honest. You’re in a unique position to, potentially, get your FB on the field, without facing a stacked box. OL coaches dream about that kind of thing (on most NFL teams, OL coaches call the run plays).

Passing Defense: Mahomes loves to go for the big play, and we can’t let him have it. Zone seems like the logical choice, but they’ll tear that apart. Gotta play man to man. Double Hill, press Watkins, chip Kelce, with a LB, and we’ll deal with the 4^th option. Mahomes had some trouble with cover 1 and cover 0 looks last year, so that’s what we’ll give him. If they’re gonna spread us out, we’ll blitz the hell out of em. Every hit we can put on Mahomes is a win, if it costs us less than 10 yards, great. 5 man blitz, 6man blitz, zone blitz, whatever we can do to speed up his clock. I’d rather deal with dump off passes, that go for 5-10 yards, than force our CBs to cover all day, while Mahomes evades a standard pass rush. We’ve got to keep Mahomes in the pocket. It’s not that he’s any worse there, it’s just that he throws the ball faster. If our DBs have to cover for 7 seconds, on 10% of the plays, in the first half, they’ll be gassed by the 2^nd half. Keep Mahomes contained so, at most, he’s got 4-5 seconds. If Mahomes does get out of the pocket, we gotta hit him. Reid won’t let him stack up too many of those hits. Every contact we make will simplify the play-calling, and make our job easier.

Response: Keeping Mahomes healthy should be the #1 priority. You can’t go into a shell every time he gets hit, but he needs to understand that the season is long, and he doesn’t need to be throwing, as he’s getting hit, twice a game. Have high standards for OL, be willing to bench a guy sooner than you might usually. Make sure RBs understand that pass blocking is their most important job. Teams will be looking to get after Mahomes, Chiefs need to be aware of that, and plan accordingly. Throw in some max protect, or extra blockers, from time to time. Between Kelce, Watkins and, hopefully, Hill, someone’s going to get open… if you give Mahomes the time.

Red Zone Defense: Here we have a fighting chance. Damien Williams isn’t a bruiser, like Hunt, so they’ll have to try to beat us with speed. Reid doesn’t like to put the ball up for grabs, so as long as we have guys close to Kelce, and Watkins, we’ll be ok. Play assignment sound football. Be ready for the jet sweep from Hill, or passes, in the flat, to the RB. They’re going to attack horizontally, so we need to stay fast, in our personnel groupings. Even if they go heavier, with say Sherman and their 2^nd TE, we can’t take the cheese. Stay fast. We have a better chance of stuffing a run, up the middle, with a safety, than covering their RB, or slot receiver, with a LB.

Response: Chiefs lack a dangerous possession receiver. Developing one would add a whole new component, to your red zone offense. Custis seems like the obvious choice, since he’s huge, but Thompson is fairly tall, and has excellent hands AND route running ability. His lack of a 2^nd gear isn’t an issue, in the Red Zone, Chiefs need to get him up to speed on that, post-haste.

Chiefs appear to have weaknesses in the Red Zone, on offense, and vs deep threats on defense. They should have a strong run game and a suffocating run defense. Teams won’t be able to dink and dunk on the Chiefs, anymore, but it could lead to giving up more big plays. A couple of Chiefs biggest needs are currently slated to be filled by rookie or unproven players. No roster is perfect, but Chiefs could still use another proven WR/TE, or CB. Veach has done good work, this off-season, hopefully he has a little more left in the tank. Go Chiefs.

Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne

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