The AFC West: Revamped, Not Revamped – There’s never been an offseason like this one. While you could say that about every offseason this one has been marked by a stay at home order that has restricted teams like… well, ever. What that means heading into the 2020 season, is that the teams who are revamping — by adding a new head coach or a new quarterback or making other significant moves — are at a decided disadvantage. As Kansas City Chiefs fans, the answer to whether or not your team has revamped or not, means… the possible path to a repeat as AFC West Champions is made all that much easier and consequently it makes repeating as NFL Champions easier as well. In theory.
Repeating Champions
On the subject of “Repeating Champions,” in the first 17 years of the Super Bowl era, teams have repeated a Super Bowl appearance the very next seasons, 9 times. That’s 53% of the time. However, in the past 37 seasons of the Super Bowls era, teams have repeated an appearance the very next year, 12 times, or 32% of the time. Consequently, it would not be off to say that getting back to the Super Bowl the next season after appearing in is much tougher these days.
The reason for that is not clear but what is clear is that getting back to the Super Bowl after losing a Super Bowl the very next year is much, much more difficult. Prior to the New England Patriots coming back to beat the Rams in Super Bowl LIII, 13-to-3, after losing the previous year to Philadelphia, 41-to-33… no team as ever come back to appear in a Super Bowl the next year… since the year the Miami Dolphins did it in their 14-to-7 win over Washington at the end of the 1972 season. Of course, the Dolphins were perfect that season but, they had lost the previous Super Bowl to the Cowboys 24-to-3. What’s a bit strange is that the only other time a team has lost a Super Bowl, then returned to win it the very next year, was the year those Cowboys beat the Dolphins.
Super Bowl Losers Returning to the Super Bowl
Returning to the Super Bowl after losing it, has happened only once in the past 47 Super Bowls: a 2.1% chance. That would seem to make the hill that Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers have to climb a much steeper one than the Chiefs are looking at. Plus, with all the changes the Chiefs didn’t make this year, it gets even better.
So, onward, to take a look at the AFC West teams: Revamped, or Not Revamped. First, let’s take a look at the Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers
Revamped: San Diego… err… Los Angeles Chargers – I’m placing them in the revamped category because they jettisoned Philip Rivers and inserted Tyrod Taylor at QB. Plus, they changed their Bolts logo:
See the difference? Me either. The Chargers have made plenty of other moves but the move at QB is enoguh to get them the “Revamped” label here.
Denver Broncos
Revamped: Denver Broncos – the Broncos started last season brining in Joe Flacco and while they went to rookie Drew Lock in their last 5 games, 4 of which they won, a change at starting QB from one season to the next makes that offseason critical to their success. The Broncos made plenty of other changes as well and lost some significant players like: CB Chris Harris, OL Connor McGovern, Safety Will Parks, DE Derek Wolfe and even Long Snapper Casey Kreiter who you may not see as important but those special teamers need reps to be comfortable. The Broncos also brought in DL Jurrell Casey, CB A.J. Bouye, RB Melvin Gordon III, OG Graham Glasgow, TE Nick Vannett, and Punter Sam Martin. It also appears the Broncos will be depending on a rookie draft class, a large draft class, ten players in all, who are going to need a lot of time to absorb their system: WR Jerry Jeudy, WR KJ Hamler, CB Michael Ojemudia, OC Lloyd Cushenberry, DL, McTelvin Agim, TE Albert Okwuegbunam, LB Justin Strnad, OG Netane Muti, WR Tyrie Cleveland, and Edge Rusher Derrek Tuszka.
Las Vegas Raiders
Revamped: Oakland… Los Angeles… Oakland… Las Vegas… Raiders
That’s right, even though the Raiders don’t have a new head coach or a new quarterback (yet)… they are moving to a completely new city. That alone should make the process of putting a team together in time for the new season to begin, something that places them at a disadvantage. There are other reasons.
Here are the Raiders subtractions:
- S Karl Joseph (now in Cleveland)
- LB Tahir Whitehead (now in Carolina)
- DE Benson Mayowa (now in Seattle)
- CB Daryl Worley (now in Dallas)
- QB Mike Glennon (now in Jacksonville)
- DE Josh Mauro (Free Agent)
- RB DeAndre Washington (now in Kansas City)
Here’s are the Raiders additions and brand new to their team:
- QB Marcus Mariota
- TE Jason Witten
- QB Marcus Mariota
- TE Jason Witten
- LB Cory Littleton
- LB Nick Kwiatkoski
- DB Damarious Randall
- DT Maliek Collins
- S Jeff Heath
- DE Carl Nassib
- WR Nelson Agholor
- TE Nick O’Leary
- OL Eric Kush
Here’s the Raiders draft (more players new to their system):
- WR Henry Ruggs III
- CB Damon Arnette
- WR Lynn Bowden Jr.
- WR Bryan Edwards
- Safety Tanner Muse
- OG John Simpson
- CB Amik Robertson
Now, here are the players the Raiders re-signed to extensions:
- RB Jalen Richard
- OL Denzelle Good
- LG Richie Incognito
- CB Nevin Lawson
- RB Rod Smith
- OG Jordan Devey
- LB Kyle Wilber
- LS Trent Sieg
With all those changes, including moving to a new city, it’s hard to see Jon Gruden and his team getting it all together in time to make a difference in 2020. I’m not saying it’s not possible, but the challenge just appears to be greater than it is for the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Not Revamped: Kansas City Chiefs – To be fair, let’s take a look at the Chiefs offseason changes.
That makes approximately 21 fairly important changes the Chiefs have been made this offseason. That’s significantly different than the 34 changes I found for the Raiders listed above. The biggest difference is, the Chiefs changes were not that important when you consider that 20 of 22 starters are coming back. I may be repeating what has been repeated many time over, but it bares repeating.
What do you think? Are all the other AFC West teams “Revamping” as I believe they are?
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
Ransom Hawthorne is taking a couple of weeks off.
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