… but maybe they’re a lot closer
I cannot see that the Kansas City Chiefs football club as a true contender in 2021. They just are not there. Or maybe, I should say: They are not ready… but might get there. The question then becomes: when will this happen? Week after week we have seen a team err when a play unfolds. You name the reason and it surely has been the cause. I have looked high and low at film and the progressive errors that have dominated every football game, including the win against the Packers last Sunday.
The Chiefs defense played well, but they didn’t play the Aaron Rodgers led Packer offense either. On the other hand, other than with Rodgers out of the picture, the defense would have pressured and hurried the GB QB, even if Rodgers was the starter.
The defense kept Jordan Love busy in it’s basic work on the front four. You really cannot fault the defense. They were more than accomplished in this game. Playmakers roused up and made plays and held the vaunted Pack to 7 points. From what we saw, even Aaron Rodgers would have had difficulty maintaining drives. Even so, late in the game, Love drove the pack down the field and made a play, connecting with WR Alan Lazard for a TD and Green Bay pulled within a 7 points of taking the game away from K.C..
My view at that point was that if Aaron Rodgers were at the helm, the Packers would have likely found the end zone and taken the lead 14-13 and the Chiefs would somehow foul things up and fail to even get in FG range to take the game.
To prove an emerging success, we’d need to see the offense, defense, and special teams all perform like contenders. We have yet to see this happen.
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Defensive Prowess: A Growing Force
In the first three games, the Chiefs gave up 30 points or more per game and lost 2 of those games. Since week 6, the defense has played with growing improvement, holding opponents at 17 or under 3 times. The lone exception was the game against the Titans. The game versus the Packers was their best game of 2021.
In this game, the LB’s played well. Credit has to be given to Anthony Hitchens in this game. Watching the game you can see Hitch make live-action adjustments that were successful. Willie Gay had a very good game and Hitchen’s, for once, was a factor as well. He had a successful PD. So what we saw was Hitch, very effective at SAM, Gay playing very good football at WILL, and Nick Bolton rolling with the MIKE role. Things are coming together for the Chiefs LBs.
Playmaker L’jarius Sneed
With the Pack driving in the 4th quarter, Jordan love went to a sideline, over-the-top pass, for which the Pack has multiple WR’s who can go up and snag those passes… only this time, It was L’Jarius Sneed who picked it off. For the rest of the targets, Sneed did well in preventing receptions. He did have one breakdown in which he was late to the point of reception. Sneed’s PBU versus Davante Adams at the right pylon was also a great play. He deflected the ball out of bounds, preventing a TD. Sneed suffered an ankle injury in this game, but came back and played on it.
Sneed did not practice Wednesday. That’s a worry for this week as is the ROT with both Niang and Remmers still not practicing.
Playmaker: Charvarius Ward
As usual, when a player does his basic job, it goes unnoticed. This is the case with Ward’s game. He did have a PBU, but was otherwise a big meddler and preventer in this game. Essentially, Ward did nothing special except get the job done and along with Sneed, the pair of CB’s played good football.
Playmaker: Chris Jones
CJ had 5 pressures on QB Jordan Love. One of those was a masterful rush inside forcing Love to throw the ball at the feet of his target. The Chiefs, having added Melvin Ingram to the front four, kept the pressure on Jordan Love for the whole game and they stopped the run game at the same time. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon were held in check.
Chiefs Pass Rush Effectiveness Overall
The Chiefs pressured Jordan love on 17 of his 34 pass attempts.
The significance of a Single Stat: 7 points
Frank Clark Factor
Clark was a big factor and his PFF rating for the game reflects it, once again well above the 90.0 level. He had 3 QB hits and a tackle for a loss. leader, Laddie Morse has written about this in the past. It is Clark’s disciplined play outside, his reads against the run, shutting down the edge, and his effectiveness as a pass rusher, all of which is important. The past two games are telling that tale. His persona is making the rest of the front four more effective.
Game Stats show us a lot: Newcomer Melvin Ingram was a factor in this game. The Chiefs forced the Packers to the aerial game and defended it well, giving up the lone, late TD to Alan Lazard. The front 4 and Co. she’d Aaron Jones to 53 yards on 12 carries and AJ Dillon was essentially a non-factor. You may recall that this was how I believed the Chief’s focus on the game should go: Stop the run and make the Pack throw the ball with a rookie QB – Mission Accomplished. Still, Green Bay had 19 first downs in the game to KC’s 14. They averaged 5.0 yards per play. The secondary held Jordan Love to 19 completions in 34 attempts with Sneed making the single interception by the Chiefs. The Pack also turned the ball over with a fumble. They owned the time of possession: 31.33 to 28.27, but were turned away in the red zone twice.
Special Special Teams
The Chiefs Special Team’s were clearly superior. Punter Tommy Townsend averaged 48 yards per punt with a long of 64 yards. He had 5 punts inside the 20 in the game, two of those inside the 10, 1 at the 2-yard line, the other at the 9. Harrison Butker was 2-for-2 on FG’s, with a 24-yard FG and a 55-yard FG. Chiefs followers have got to give Dave Toub’s unit a bunch of high praise for this game. At the same time, the Packers placekicker, Mason Crosby, a kick that was surely in range for a score, missed just left, followed by a second attempt, also in range at the 27 yard line which was blocked by Alex Okafor.
Where’s the Danged Offense?
This is the most difficult thing to examine, because the Chiefs potent offense moved the football. However, a single play puts the problem in microscopic focus. Our #2 WR — Mecole Hardman — flubs a catch. Once again, Hardman has the opportunity to make a play and the result of the pass is a drop, which, also ended yet another drive.
The Drive Killer
This is the type of error that stops the Chief’s drives, time and again. I should note that this was Mecole’s first drop of 2021 and both Kelce and Hill have more drops by far (Hill is tied for third in the NFL in dropped passes). In fact, Travis Kelce had two drops in this game with Hill chiming his muff during the game and Josh Gordon really blew up an underneath route with a drop at the same time. Here, I was, touting the short-drop and quick pass routine. The result of 4 of those plays was jaw-dropping: the drop by Hardman, 2 by Kelce, and 1 by Gordon were all drive-stopping errors along with the pass play where Ty Hill slipped and the pass fell incomplete. Patrick Mahomes was not at fault — the fellow cast members were.
The odd thing? Travis Kelce’s two drops were also jaw-dropping. Thunder Dan of RGR tweeted about this to the effect: “C’mon Zeus, the team needs you!” “Zeus” is a nickname for Travis Kelce… of course, these were the first drops of the season for Kelce. Up to this game, he had 64 targets and “0” drops. Oh, we must credit Kelce’s redemption in the game was, well, the most important — and only — TD of the game by the Chiefs.
Another statistical category demonstrates the problems of the offense. Ordinarily, K.C. averages well beyond 4 yards per play. In this game, the Mahomes-led offense averaged 3.76 YPP (Yards per Play). This is the only time since Patrick Mahomes became the starter that the offense was held to this type of low product. Not only that, but the total offense production is also a record low for Mahomes and Co: 237 total yards. I am going to excuse some of this due to the quality of the defense the Chiefs were facing. The Chiefs have faced potent defenses many times over the time since Patrick took the helm. I can’t put my finger on it, but whatever it is that is infecting the team, it is far-reaching and has been present in every game this year, win or lose.
On the positive side, Jerick McKinnon had 3 catches out of the backfield and averaged 10.3 YPC. Also of note, aside from Andrew Wylie’s numbers at ROT, the Chiefs OL faired well against the vaunted defense of the Packers, with PFF Reflecting the following Pass-Blocking stats:
Patrick Mahomes: Where Have You Gone?
What Patrick did in this game was far from stellar, but the drive failures were not his errors, pure and simply. Patrick stayed in the pocket and was not really bothered by the Packers pass rush. He did well in this regard behind an offensive line that was successful against a top defense. The problems of the offense in this game have nothing to do with Patrick. Failed drives were in abundance in this game.
- McKinnon had the opportunity to shake a defender and get a 1st down. Really, you can’t blame McKinnon either. It was an isolation play that he didn’t succeed in converting.
- Hill slipped and could not make a catch to move the chains.
- Late in the game, Reid called a pass play to the flats that failed miserably on a 4th and less than 1 yard to go.
- Another drive failed on the Josh Gordon drop.
- Then too, Kelce’s drop figured into a failed drive.
- Add Mecole Hardman’s drop that was another case where a drive failed due to a player a faux pas.
This is not to say that Mahomes wasn’t part of the problem, he was. However, he was not the reason for drive failures. We have observed in the past that Mahomes gets happy feet and flees the pocket too easily at times, but that was not the case in this game.
It is true, that the game of numbers were his lowest in 3 years: 20-of-37-166 yards, 1 TD, Passer rating 74.8. That is not the Patrick Mahomes we all know and love, but it is true that he was facing a very tough Packers top-5 defense. His surrounding cast helped him not. especially when you factor in their drops, and muffs.
One of our ArrowheadOne readers commented in the game thread that: Patrick scrambled and threw the pass to get the first down and secure the game something to the effect that that play was the: only Mahomes-esque play of the game.
Mahomes was also clearly at odds and upset with Andy Reid’s playcalling and it was displayed when Mahomes called a time-out late in the game. Also, on a 4th and short, Reid called a play-action pass to the flats which Green Bay easily stopped. Sometimes Reid calls plays that make no sense. I believe there were 9 plays where the Chiefs ran the ball on first down and the result was 9 first downs. I’d prefer to mix and match that with some simple, quick short passes.
On the other hand, with the drops by receivers that foiled moving the chains, I can see Andy over-thinking that. I’m defending Mahomes here a bitt although he’s not playing the same game he has for the preceding 3 seasons. However, the failed drives in this game were not a fault to be laid at his feet. What’s surprising is, Mahomes is still the 4th ranked QB in 2021:
Reid’s Play-calling Remains Questionable
When K.C. ran the football on first down they were successful moving the chains. Many times, Chiefs Kingdom just shakes their collective heads when Andy Reid calls a play no one understands and does poorly.
The Chiefs could possibly string together three more wins in a row and in the process overtake the Chargers. They face next, the Las Vegas Raiders, a team in even more disarray followed by the Cowboys and Broncos. Meanwhile: we can watch the Chiefs, cheer and jeer, and anticipate the draft early since post-season is a long reach for this team. Oh. We can always watch the Cheerleaders.
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David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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