Now that the Kansas City Chiefs General Manager, Brett Veach, has already solved the biggest issue fore the 2021 roster, the approach to the draft tonight, will be somewhat different. Somewhat different in the sense that he wont be looking to fill the Eric Fisher role, he now has Orlando Brown for that job. So, who’s left on his list? Plus, is he still planning on going after a left tackle, even though he just traded for one?
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Veach probably still needs to draft a developmental left tackle if he can. Someone like Stone Forsythe would be great. Forsythe is a 6-foot8, 329 lbs., tackle out of Florida and is ranked as the 199th best overall prospect by DrafTek and the 134th best by CBS Sports, but doesn’t show up on Matt Miller’s top 300 prospects.
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Kyle Crabbs of The Draft Network says of Forsythe,
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“Florida offensive tackle Stone Forsythe projects as a viable starting-caliber offensive tackle at the pro level. Forsythe, who is the son of former NFL offensive lineman Ray Forsythe, started the final 25 games of his career with the Florida Gators at left tackle—but he has taken reps on the right side of the line as well and that added flexibility should afford teams more appeal as a potential swing tackle early in his career while he works on some of the finer points of his game.”
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While some are hip the Forsythe and he could go earlier, if he was there in the 5th round for K.C. he’s someone Veach may be wanting to bring to the roster.
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The New Round 2 Approach
In Veach’s original offseason presser, he said: OL, LB and DL were all positions the Chiefs will focus on. Since he appears to have brought in the most help along the OL, including a stud LT in Brown, it’s a good bet that K.C. won’t be going there for pick #58, or #63.
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Some want to see the top Edge rusher be taken in those top two picks, and while that could help to bolster the DE position down the road, the Chiefs need a Linebacker yesterday. In fact, of all the positions, LB may have the least depth of all. Besides Anthony Hitchens and Willie Gay, they have Ben Niemann and… some no name guys (meaning; those with little to no experience), guys like: Omari Cobb, Darius Harris, and Emmanuel Smith. Then there’s Dorian O’Daniel, and while many know of O’Daniel, he hasn’t had many reps at LB since he came to K.C. as the 100th pick in the 2018 draft. Dorian had 302 defensive snaps his rookie year, but only 15 snaps since. So, he would not appear to be in DC Steve Spagnuolo’s plans.
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It’s hard to talk out of both sides of your mouth (as I often do) all at once. I’m of course referring to –> talking about upholding the Veach Prime directive (BPA)… while simultaneously talking about taking a player to fulfill a need. It’s a corner you don’t want to get painted into… but it happens. In fact, in this piece by ex-GM for the Falcons, Thomas Dimitroff, he makes it clear that teams do draft for need. In his piece called, “How NFL general managers draft: An inside look at the privileges, pressures and pitfalls of the big chair” and he says,
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“The honest truth is,
teams almost always draft for need,
filling in the remaining holes on their rosters.”
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Thank God, now I can close the other side of my mouth. So, let’s focus in on the Chiefs needs.
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If you haven’t seen Ryan Tracy on RGR Football talk about his Big Board, you can see it here (go the six minutes mark). It’s crucial that we understand that Brett Veach is working off of his own Big Board, so it’s enlightening to examine a Big Board like Ryan Tracy’s. If you don’t have time to watch that video, I’m providing a screen capture below, as well as the link to download a copy yourself (Ryan’s Big Board PDF file).
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That view is much to small too see so I’ve taken the liberty of re-ordering the columns and highlighting the the rounds, which resembles what K.C. will most likely be looking at when the 58th and 63rd picks roll around. Below is a closer look:
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Accuracy in Predicting
Working with David Bell, he and I put together two Mocks this year. In “David and Laddie’s Mock 1.0,” we predicted 25 players correctly taken in R1. That’s a 78% success rate. In our Mock 2.0, we correctly predicted, 27 correct for an 84% success rate. I’m bring this up to point out that we have similar views because we both played “inside” the game, and have a long time view “outside” of the game, so, this same accuracy may be used to examine the above big board. Such as…
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Ryan Tracy didn’t have his Big Board categories in this order, he placed, QB, IOL, OT and RB first. It seems more logical then, to place these categories in the order of: Edge, LB, WR, not only because of the recent move to sign Orlando Brown (which takes care of the starting LT position), but because the available players in the draft appear to be best accessed at Edge (first) and LB (equally), and WRs (which is deep), then CBs (which is perhaps even deeper).
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By looking at the condensed version of Ryan Tracy’s Big Board above, you may be able to narrow the possible prospects Veach will be picking from today… depending upon what other players who are taken before K.C. picks. To get another view of the players available, take a look at Nick Jacobs view, where I’ve also applied the same red dotted line to those plays already taken in R1.
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Aside from just being able to say, “There are many fine players who will be available to the Chiefs at 58 and 63,” if you cross reference these two charts, you may be able to see who Veach will focus in on, however, we must consider other perimeters:
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- Getting accurate medical information
- Lacking data specifics because there was no combine
- Less reliable personal information in a zoom
- Last minutes data and how it affects a prospects placement on the board
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Plus, there was a run on DEs in the first round with 6 taken, and three taken with the last three picks. That may indicate that if Veach wants to get a good Edge rusher, he’d have to get one early. There were also 3 LBs taken in R1 so if Veach wants a good LB, he may need to jump at one with pick #58… although the LBs in the draft may be a bit deeper.
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Anyone who says they “know” who K.C. will take in R2, is lying, because Veach doesn’t even know that yet. However, I can present you with some choices based on the above list and Big Board.
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This is a list that may change because Brett Veach has been known to trade up and down the board. Ryan Tracy thinks Veach needs to move up with his 58th pick and down with his 63rd thereby giving two picks further apart. He says, you don’t want to be stuck drafting in a position where there are no players you want and if he stays at 58 and 63 he could end up with two players he doesn’t want.
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Over the past three drafts, Brett Veach has been involved with 23 trades (player movements). 12 in 2018, 7 in 2019, and 4 in 2020, and that doesn’t include the picks involved in the Orlando Brown trade. So, there’s a good possibility Veach makes a trade, although, there’s a trend which has him sitting on his hands more and more as the years go by.
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Who do you think Veach will go after tonight?
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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