The Chiefs: Two for a Nickel, Three for a…

by David Bell | May, 26, 2019

Expanding Upon Thursday’s View

On Thursday, I took a peek at the potential and simplistic 4-3 defenses to provide some illumination in how the 43 is based. There were two views that appear to me to be earmarked in the old play book but with variations that will make the scheme difficult for an opposing QB to read and which are easily shifted up or down on the fly. Those are the 43-Under variations and the 43-Over. I can see the Wide 9 occasionally used and I provided a couple of ideas for having a safety walk up to the box with a receiver to be covered, suggesting a safety in one case, and a linebacker in the other (there I suggested it would be Darron Lee).

The Nickel: Over 43

The Nickel is a defense which deploys in any scheme, 5 defensive backs. This should not be surprising vs today’s aerial-oriented NFL offenses. Even with Sutton’s versions of the 34 and his idiotic approach to coverages, the Chiefs were in the Nickel frequently. Some recent history shows that in 2008, the Nickel was deployed 43% of the time across the NFL. By 2015, the Nickel was used more than 60% of the time. I have not seen the latest numbers but believe it is about 65%.

Dime: 43 Under 6 and Go Fast Tweak

There is going to be use of what will be determined to be the Chiefs 43 base but using 6 defensive backs. I am not sure what this will actually entail but I can give you an idea. This will fit the Chiefs personnel because they will be able to shift up and down with personnel. One reason I think this will work is due to the Safeties available to the Chiefs as well as the speedy linebackers. I can see using Mathieu, Watts, Thornhill from the safety crew along with Dorian O’Daniel and Darron Lee among the Linebacker mix.

Up front we are going to be shifted out of the basic 4 man front so it might look much like the 34. You will see only two true LBs behind 3 men up front because pass coverage and heavy pursuit ability is the key to using the dime.

The purpose is to create a coverage miss-match with the opposing RB who is covered by a man who is skilled in both covering speedy backs and stopping the run at the same time. With the Go Fast personnel, we would be using a group of linemen who are quicker as opposed to the bulkier group. Of course the opposite variation goes with Nnadi, Saunders, and Speaks for example. Mix and match, confuse and deceive: that’s coming.

Base 43? I actually don’t expect it much at all..

[Aside: Saunders will have impact in his rookie season to be added to both Thornhill and Hardman. I am also pretty high on Nick Allegretti as a potential impact player on the offensive line along with Reiter, and Wylie.]

Quarter Defense: A Prevent

If we are fortunate, We will see this hardly at all.

It is my view that any time a team is going to use this defense, it is when a team is needing a miracle to complete a pass and have time to score after it is thrown. I personally detest the prevent but for the Hail Mary type situation I can see it used. Otherwise, it is something I hope is never deployed by Spagnuolo. When Sutton used it, invariably, the defense failed.

Aerial Defense: Cover “0”

I am hoping to see this more as the season rolls in. It would mean a lot that Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland both are on top showing that they can run man-up coverages and make this work. All defensive backs are in a man-to-man coverage.  There is essentially no free safety, or if there is, the opposition is holding someone in for blocking. This coverage is what Bob Sutton talked about before camp last year and didn’t have the personnel to deploy it, or he was afraid to go to the personnel who could fit the scheme (part of that had to be true but also Eric Berry was not available, nor was Armani Watts).

Cornerbacks and linebackers have specific man-up coverage. The SS takes in a WR with the outside corners and slot CB taking on the assigned  WR’s.

If the Free Safety doesn’t have a man, he is going to play center field. The Cover “0” is an aggressive defense which frees up an extra player up front, usually a LB who can roam or blitz, working in coordination with the front four to breakdown the pass blocking and disrupt the timing of the play at the very least.

Cover “0” has basic weaknesses

Cover “0” requires a solid Free Safety who is able to make the appropriate read and cover a large amount of ground. I do think Thornhill can take this on. The second problem arrives in that the Cornerbacks are islands of coverage with no over the top help if the FS is tied to his own coverage. The SS is going to be up in coverage and/or run support so he can’t help with any “Zone” back end support. The opposing QB is going to read, or try to audible out to a fly on the edge, or a deep threat to a Tight End, or with a tall WR. If you think about how Kelce gets “loose” on the edge, or in the seam, it is due to such coverage or a zone which has broken down. Expect top QBs to get the read and exploit the defense by pushing the vertical route with a TE, especially in the seam.

Cover “2” Zone

The Cover Two is the second defense we will see variations of. It depends on use of both safeties patrolling the areas deep on the field of play while the Cornerbacks cover the flats to the point where the route goes vertical and they “hand off” coverage to a safety and trail the play — as an example — providing underneath zone coverage for those vertical routes. The SAM and WILL (43 OLB’s) are responsible for dropping into coverage and taking care of the the curl, hook and short crossers, especially in the area of the hash marks on the strong and weak sides. The MIKE is going to patrol the middle of the field. This coverage requires the speed of the linebackers to find and stick with a target in the zone for which they are responsible, assist where an intruder is locating or to break out and get to the edge and support coverage underneath the corners and the safeties covering the receivers deep.

Cover 2 exposures

The weakness also entails the proper reads by LBs so that they can make plays at the LoS. Their ability to hit the gaps quickly is crucial to the defense but their speed is also part of the reason the Cover 2 can be successfully implemented at the same time.

A bottom line view of the 2019 Defense

by the Outside, and where I differ

The defense in 2018 was awful, the Chiefs were 24th in points allowed and 31st in yardage allowed. I see ratings from others which are putting the 2019 Chiefs at an improved mark of about 25th. That is just plain wrong. 

My confidence is a lot higher than this especially as the year rolls into the last 1/4 of the season. It may be that the Chiefs are playing a lot like a close to top 10 defense group by week 10 but I at least expect it to be 15 or better as an overall outlook. I expect to see more sacks than they had in 2018 with more disruptions of the QB. It’s true that Ford and Houston outside are gone. However, Chris Jones and Frank Clark replace the number of sacks achieved by the trio of Jones, Ford and Houston.

I also see with the personnel available that the Chiefs frontend and backend make the linebacker and cornerback duties a lot easier to be successful. I was pleased with the draft — Thornhill specifically — but also with other additions such as Mathieu and Breeland. I see getting Watts back as a huge part of the back end and the added LBs, Damien Wilson and Darron Lee, as being integral to improving the middle of the defense. The improved play at the front and the back ends is going to make this defense far more successful than you are reading about from any of the pundits. 

Ransom Hawthorne discussed briefly how Rashaad Fenton might fit.  I added Tremon Smith in a comment to his remarks. I am pretty confident in Fuller and Breeland and this would leave the exposure at starting CB at being Ward who is to be proven over a complete season as a starter. I grant that is true about Ward but from what I saw in 2018 I doubt sincerely that he is going to be a washout at CB. He also adds dimension of a CB with length, an attribute that has been missing in our CB’s of the past two years. Really. It could be as simple as having the talent already in the Kingdom to provide the depth. We still have monies that could go buy an experienced player as well, and that might happen. As preseason unfolds and we get to final roster cuts, Brett Veach, has not only been successful at building roster depth, he’s been a GM who has a finger on the players who might be cut so, will surely be able to find players who can make a difference.

Our General Manager’s acquisitions of Frank Clark (DE), Tyrann Mathieu (FS) Darron Lee (LB) and Bashaud Breeland (CB) is going to be a far superior group to what was fielded in 2018. It can’t help but do so because Eric Berry and Armani Watts both were unavailable for the basic 16 game season plus, the additions strengthen each grouping.

I can see exposure in the LB group but Veach added both Damien Wilson and Darron Lee. It may not be a perfect group of backers but we will see improvement not only for the reasons I highlighted above but, I would bet a large sum on the ability of the LB group to play pass defense very effectively. Run support should be improved as well, because the Defensive front end is going to be tough to overcome whether it is an opponent which blocks well for the run game or does pass blocking well. The Chiefs can add heavy hitters or a speedy front four or mix and match. It makes the linebacker task a lot easier to man and find success. 

If I am correct?

The LB and CB play is going to be far better and the pressure on those two groups will be lessened by the superior play in front of and behind it all.  The problem with LB’s will be transitional, where QB’s try to isolate RB’s as receivers. I see that Darron Lee, Dorian O’Daniel and possibly a player like Gary Johnson or Damien Wilson being part of the solution for that.

At Corner? Breeland’s addition really helps. Fuller’s task is going to be eased due to Bashaud’s addition and with Ward demonstrating that he can handle a week in, week out starting role outside — we are not going to worry about the secondary — a big reason also being that we will indeed have the… Safety Net of solid Safety Play See what I did there?

If I am Correct Part 2?

The Secondary is going to be solid– I am going to state that the starters are going to be just fine. I think many are missing the choices of Veach in the draft and in signings and that is very important.  Tremon Smith, Rashaad Fenton or Mark Fields will aid in providing part of the solution at CB.

Keith Reaser was added from the defunct AAF.  It’s true I lobbied for more than 4 weeks during AAF play and after it folded to get Keith Reaser back to the organization. Keep in mind, he was cut after a minor injury but the Chiefs had a very positive view of Reaser last year. That showed how a slight injury during camp can get your potential snaps to fall to zero and a quick exit from camp and preseason games. That is what happened with Reaser. Veach & Co. then verified what I was seeing of his play in the AAF so, we’ll have to see how it unfolds.

The purpose of the article is to show how different facets of the defense can fit together. My own offering is how I envisioned the defense usage with player assignments as I understand them right now. That is subject to change. Again, I cannot know what Spagnuolo will use nor his terminology — it’s just me giving names to some of what I see and how that might present itself as a Controlled Chaos defense. Alluded to here are player specifics based on my expectations, not any inside knowledge.

 I‘m extremely encouraged about the overall defense and that it will be far superior to that of 2018 and part of that improvement was a brain transplant (a la Laddie Morse) being a reason to expect that a top of the chain change is going to be a big reason for the drastic improvement of the defense in 2019.

David Bell – ArrowheadOne