The Kansas City Chiefs up and down season is three-fourths over but it’s clear change is in the air. Unless the current pattern changes immediately beginning with the game against the Oakland Raiders on Sunday — and sorry to say I’m not expecting that it will — then those changes may be based upon the players who have had an up season and those who have had a down year. Here, I’ll explore who has had which and which have had what. Let’s begin with an Up Arrow:
Tyreek Hill has had an outstanding season. His 911 yards receiving far surpasses his 593 yards in his rookie year but he’s accomplished this in only 75% of the games he played last year. He should be a featured piece of the offense for years to come. Also. his dangerous abilities in the kick return game make him a threat to take it to the end zone every time he touches the ball but perhaps more importantly, he’s a good reason the Chiefs are fun to watch, even in the face of an unrewarding season (thus far).
Derrick Johnson — as much as I respect any player in Chiefs history — has had a down year. DJ had his first Achilles injury in 2014 and came back in 2015 with 116 combined tackles. However, this year — one year removed from his second such Achilles — he’s had 60 total tackles so far and is projected for 80. Sure, he’s had less snaps and rightfully so, otherwise, he risks further injury. Thank goodness for Brett Veach trading for ILB Reggie Ragland because his ascendence has made the sting of DJ’s diminishing play bearable.
Demarcus Robinson has had a good year. Enough to be mentioned here. While some will argue that he’s still not on the same page as QB Alex Smith, his ability to step in when WR Chris Conley went down has been critical to the Chiefs offense. An offense that has risen this year in the face of a defense in decent. His 17 receptions have been timely and his 10.6 yards per carry, because of his ability after the catch, is an encouraging stat line for future years… no matter who the QB might be.
Dee Ford has had a season that may be the worst of any Chiefs player who has been projected to be a full time contributor. Yes, he’s been injured but even when he’s been in games, he’s been absent. This is Ford’s 4th year and he’s played in 51 games with 17.5 sacks and worse, he’s averaged 1.2 tackles per game for his career. Ford came into the league with tremendous speed off the ball but has often appeared lost on the field and aside from being productive in the first half of the 2016 season — 8.5 sacks in the first 9 games — he’s been more trouble than he’s worth. The Chiefs have placed Ford on Injured Reserve because of his back so, his season is done. With head’s expected to roll this offseason, there’s a possibility that Ford will be job one for the axe man.
Albert Wilson has been the biggest surprise to me this season. What I mean by that is I have completely changed my point of view about Wilson from “need’s to be cut asap” — to — “he’s a versatile WR who can be counted on” by QB Alex Smith and HC Andy Reid. While Wilson has been battling a hamstring injury this year, his presence appears to be a calming influence for Mr. Smith, especially on third downs since Chris Conley is now unavailable.
Justin Huston is not the same player we once knew in 2014 when he had 22.0 sacks. While Justin has led the Chiefs defense with 783 snaps this year, his 8.5 sacks for that number of snaps tells the real story. Houston had 1,033 snaps in 2014 which averaged out to one sack every 46.9 snaps. In 2017, he’s had one sack every 92.1 snaps (that’s an average of 0.7 sacks per game). Unless the Chiefs are playing the Denver Broncos, Houston has been a major non-factor in games. He has frankly disappeared off the map. Not only is he now not worth his contract (and some will argue he was never worth that contract: a 6-year $101M dollar deal beginning in 2015)… he’s just been singing the Beatle’s “Nowhere Man” when it comes to applying pressure this year. While he’s obviously going nowhere this offseason, man… the Chiefs will need to make a move to obtain a premiere pass rusher because premiere pass rusher no longer describes Justin Houston.
Alex Smith has been the best player on the Kansas City Chiefs this year. You would think that means the team is on the verge of making a run to the Super Bowl but he’s not the kind of QB who can carry a team, not even in the best season of his career. While many fans are waiting for Patrick Mahomes to take over at QB, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to lead the team to the promised land in his first season. Smith great season only makes him more precious cargo when the team decides to ship him off to another team this offseason. With the Chiefs ex-GM John Dorsey (see below) rumored to be heading to one of several harbors — he will have his pick of the litter — there’s a good chance Smith will follow Dorsey. I like Alex Smith a lot and would love to see him go to a team with a great offensive line so he can show more of what he’s capable of because he’s never had that here in Kansas City (although I doubt he’d ever have a decent OL in Cleveland).
Marcus Peters is a conundrum. He appears to have the talent to be one of the leagues best, as he displayed in his first season. However, his lack of personal discipline is what’s holding him back and his play has suffered this season. Peters has 847 snaps this year with 3 INTs. That works out to one INT every 282 snaps. In 2015, his rookie year, Peters had 8 INTs in 1,042 snaps. That works out to one INT every 130 snaps. Last season Peters had 6 INTs on 1,016 total snaps. That works out to one INT every 169 snaps. So, in Peters first two seasons, he had an INT every 147 snaps. Now, he may not even be the Chiefs best DB. Of course, I’m not sure the Chiefs have any DBs worthy of the “best” categorization.
Travis Kelce is basically the same player he was a year ago production wise. Has he matured a little. I’d say yes as he appears to express his frustration along the sidelines and his after games comments express as much frustration as you might expect from a big emotional guy. But, Kelce had 1,125 yards receiving in 2016 and projects to have slightly more yards than that this season. So, from a progress or regress standpoint, he’s about the same. Same — wonderful — but the same nonetheless. He will continue to be a core piece to this offense in future years. Many I hope.
Kareem Hunt’s arrow is trending upwards. He started the year out like gangbusters but has since quieted considerably. However, I’m of the firm opinion that when he’s paired with another quality RB he’ll be one tough out. That could be Spencer Ware but the injuries to his right knee included a MCL and a LCL which some describe as much more grueling and lengthy in recovery. So, don’t be surprised if the Chiefs go RB again — early to mid-rounds — in this coming draft. Hunt was the man they wanted in the last draft and they traded up to get him. ILB Reggie Ragland is another player whose arrow is trending upwards and I look forward to seeing just how good he can be.
Offensive Line: much has been made of the Defense being the main reason for the Chiefs demise this season and the team appears to be nearly out of contention. However, the Offensive Line has not been good this year. Last season, they showed progress but this year the abilities of the offensive back field and the WRs has carried this team. You may have noticed that all the up arrows this year belongs to the passing game while all the down arrows belong to the linebacking core of the defense, which includes Tamba Hali. The Linebacking Core has been the major reason for this decline. While I abhor talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers, they have used a strong linebacking core formula to stay ahead of the league on defense. With ILBs Kevin Pierre-Lewis, Reggie Ragland and Ukeme Eligwe, the Chiefs have a good beginning point but they must acquire more strong LBs to shore up the defense and improve the run defense. Not to say that the Defensive Line isn’t on the declining list because it is. Ransom Hawthorne has predicted that the defense is two years away from being rebuilt and, with the needs I’ve stated here, it’s hard to disagree. Especially when you take the negative state of the Defensive Backfield into consideration.
What do you think? Is there anyone deserving of an Up Arrow, Down Arrow, Sideways Arrow or Upward Trend Arrow… that I may have missed?.
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