The “Dummy,” the Declare, and Riding the Shooter

The “Dummy,” the Declare,

and Riding the Shooter

by David Bell

The “Taxing” Part of Bridge

Someone’s always the loser, but the winner might not take away value. Football is sort of that way.

Dummy #1: Start with: How many pass rushers can you muster? You may need them all versus Patrick Mahomes. You might say that there will be a concerted effort to force the game into the pocket and knock Patrick Mahomes on is butt, snap after snap. That’s not going to happen. PMII is not a pocket QB: He will evade, throw to the flood, use the R.P.O. or hit a RB flood out of the backfield. You can bring Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, or Shaquil Barrett and couple of tanks. Oh. Beware of ejections. The Chiefs have their own confusion about sacking or tackling the QB as Justin Houston verbalized this week. Clay Mathews is furious up in Green Bay.

Despite this on the KC side of things, I am pretty sure that PMII will have 2 or 2 1/2 seconds to find an open man, even so.

Dummy #1: Opt for defending the pass? Good luck with that. The Bronco secondary is not the strongest secondary to go up against. Mahomes has picked apart the opposition for 3 straight contests. That’s not going to work. Do I think he needs work in the pocket? You bet. Do I think he attempts to use his feet at the right time with the right pressure coming to bear on him? Nope. A predominate number of snaps will win out.  My original prediction as 45-21. This article has an alteration.

Dummy #2: Dummy number 2 to requires your defense to match up and close out three receivers: Hill, Watkins and Kelce. Then if you substitute Conley or Robinson you have not only speed problems but length problems as well. Add in Hunt, Ware or Williams at RB? You can put the ball inside or outside the tackles on the ground or flood the RB out of the backfield with the WR’s all as deep as the intermediate zone. Any one of the 3 running backs is going to be 5 yards open, beating a LB to an open space and Dummy #2 will have to stop the YAC. It’s just not possible to shut this down.

The Kicker for Dummy #2 is the Broncos are going  be fielding corner back Tramaine Brock who was held out of practice, Brad Roby is playing poorly and Simmons play at the back end is nothing to write Ma’ about.

I like 2 or 2 1/2 seconds and release and PMII picks apart the Denver secondary. As I predict — that should put the Chiefs’ scoring in the mid-40 range.

Dummy #3: Put on the air show yourself? Do you have the horses to have a nose to place that bet on? If this ends in a shoot’em up then I think that contest is over before the 3rd quarter is over. If anything might turn to a Denver advantage is if Reid puts the caution brakes on or the players let up(which Reid observed was the case in the game versus the 49’ers. If the Broncos attempt this with Case Keenum I have expectations of the Broncos scoring on our weak defense (mildly using the adjective–no grumbles included). But no I doubt they’ll score 31. I don’t think Keenum is good enough to go ‘Goff-to-toe (Cousins).

I think you have to be realistic about this as well: Denver can get into the air game with Keenum if that is their aim.  However, their offensive line has had it’s on woes… lack of consistency might better describe their performance thus far. The Chiefs are superior in almost all categories. On the other hand, the Chiefs are playing a division game on foreign turf. There is always that “But.”

Affecting the Broncos on offense is another also the Jake Butt injury. He tore his ACL in practice — the #2 TE. Prior to his draft, several of us at ArrowheadOne were touting high positives for Butt. We won’t see him until 2019.

I am liking the “Dummy 3 hands” even more. It has High Jingo potential.

Declaring the Play?

You have won the bid (KC — PPGM is 39). You are holding the power hand and your pard lays his cards on the table for you to play. Known cards in the dummy hand but also because you hold cards of strength in your on hand. Your partner lays his cards on the table. In this case, your bid is 8, the opponents are after a 7, but go conservative with 6. Hands down the dummy hand has 3 solid tricks with majors and minors (Kelce, Hill and Watkins). You hold two majors at your chest: Mahomes and Hunt, plus two minors in Jones and Ford/Houston. You also have a near void. Your bid is strong and you hold trump. That is where KC in this game appears to be.  On the “Declare” side you have a top Spade or Heart or both with trump in the near void. Powerful stuff.

What must happen is that the Denver aerial defense must mask their play so that the lead is confused… that isn’t going to happen — Mahomes has shown no weakness in finding his target.  If this doesn’t work, then the strong suit is trump and that carries the hand. KC’s strengths are just that. I like this potential.

The Broncos have Chris Harris who is playing well but Justin Simmons is giving nothing to write back home to Ma’ about. Roby is tarnished and the Broncos are starved until Su’a Cravens gets back. No matter what, the fastest corner will have to play off Hill. They have to worry Watkins taking possession tosses in the mid zone or running the fly and Kelce on a cross or an out and then surprising them with on a pass up the seem. Joe Woods will be looking to remove new wrinkles on his face at the half.

Riding the Shooter and the House Tax

To be truthful? I am not a bridge player. I like craps. It’s far more exciting. If your shooter is hot? You ride the shooter until something in your mind says pull it down. Nothing tells me this is the case with Mahomes. The money rides. Yeah. Craps is it but don’t sip free drinks while playing… that’s an almost automatic loser of shirt jacket and trousers. Next thing, security has you out the door in your skivvies. Don’t forget the Vig!

The Shooter is ‘Hot’!

“Riding Our Shooter” is what I am doing. Pete Sweeney? I hope you are calling this one right. I have them covering the 4.5 and I am taking the over at the same time with a score prediction matching Pete’s.  Make it so,” Dai said quietly. 

[Aside to the reader: I am probably at my best when playing Canasta. Craps? Not so Much.]

David Bell – ArrowheadOne

More to come this afternoon, so stay tuned for a Mile High and season’s advent!

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