The Five Most Gigantimongous Reasons the Chiefs Will Win the Super Bowl
by Laddie Morse
Number One: the Chiefs are a Dynasty… okay, okay… I won’t even try to go there this year. What we do know is that the Kansas City Chiefs offense is so good they’ll score 100 points or more in every game this season (the Washington Commanders have scored the most points by a team in a game, with 72 points versus the Giants on November 27, 1966). Yep, the Chiefs new Safety, Justin Reid, spouted that shocker in Good Morning Football this past week and never mind that no team has every scored a hundred points in game before, since Justin said it, it must be true. Right?
Yes, I’ve had a lengthy, and unwanted, break from writing about my beloved Chiefs. However, sometimes poor health habits can grab you by the nads and leave you screaming for more time on this planet before you make a grandiose, yet inevitable, exit. Yes, the very same disappearing act Snagglepuss used to refer to when he’d gather himself and tout: “Exit stage left.“
At least I’ve been paying enough attention this offseason to know there are sure fire reasons the Chiefs will not only have success, but so much success that they’ll win the Super Bowl which follows this season. So, let’s get into my “reasoning”… after all, we’re living in the Age of Reason. Correct-o-mundo? Correct!
So, here’s some of my sound reasoning for ya!
While I’m aware that many will say that substituting Justin Reid for Tyrann Mathieu at Safety will constitute a downgrade, I’m not so sure that’s true. Look who Justin Reid was playing for the first four seasons of his career with the Houston Texans, and you’ll better understand why I might think that.
In a piece called, “How New Chiefs Safety Justin Reid Compares to Tyrann Mathieu” Zach Ragan shared,
“There’s no doubt that Mathieu was the better player last season. His Pro Football Focus grade was 67.3 last year while Reid’s grade was 50.8.
Reid, however, was much better against the run than Mathieu in 2021 (Reid graded 65.1 in run defense while Mathieu graded 47.4).”
Ragan goes on to explain:
“We can probably attribute part of Reid’s poor coverage grade in 2021 to playing on a really bad Texans team last season. The upside is there for Reid, who is only 25 [Mathieu just turned 30 years old], to be a solid player in Kansas City’s defensive scheme. He may never match Mathieu’s level of production, but he’s a good replacement for the price.”
Lance Zierlein said of Reid,
“It’s easy to notice Reid on the field before being aware that his brother is former LSU All-American and NFL Pro Bowl safety Eric Reid, as his physical nature and athleticism pop out immediately.“
While Justin Reid is younger and an excellent fit for Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme, it’s his attitude that makes me believe he’ll be a difference maker. Justin Reid played with Tyrann Mathieu in Houston and so while he’s had an opportunity to glean from one of the best, he said he’s had the opportunity to carry Mathieu’s attitude forward.
Also, if Juan Thornhill has the Pro Bowl year he says he’s going to have, then I’m buying into the idea that the Safety Position will be an Upgrade in 2022. Add the hard hitting Bryan Cook to the menu while moving on from Daniel Sorensen and you have an Upgraded Safety position all the way around.
It’s hard not to notice that the Chiefs have moved on from Anthony Hitchens while bringing in Leo Chenal. That makes two important defensive positions Upgraded.
Many will tout the loss of Tyreek Hill as a huge loss, one that’s big enough that K.C. won’t be able to overcome it. Taking a quick history lesson, the wide out, Mecole Hardman, was brought in to essentially be Hill’s replacement in the event that Hill’s off field problems became more problematic during the 2019 offseason. While I recall going to one of Hill’s first training camps and bearing witness to his speed and quickness, I’m am ever reminded of the players who Brett Veach signed this offseason to help replace Hill.
Hardman’s never going to be Hill, but let’s not forget that he was only 0.04 slower than Tyreek.
40 Times
4.29 – Tyreek Hill
4.33 – Mecole Hardman
4.37 – Marquez Valdes-Scantling
4.41 – Skyy Moore
The Running Back crew has been upgraded this year as well as getting Jody Fortson back with the Tight Ends, you can both groups as Upgraded.
While taking stock of the Chiefs Upgrades up and down their line-up, we must match that against what other teams did successfully last year. Even sine K.C. was beaten in the Super Bowl by the Bucs, every smart opponent has used a two deep shell vs the Chiefs Deep Passing game. Naturally, one huge question for Andy Reid and staff to answer this offseason was: how will they change their approach and their personnel to overcome that adaptation by so many team in 2021?
Although many may not buy into the assumption this is part of what made Tyreek Hill expendable, I do.
Consequently, we will continue to see Travis Kelce open as frequently over the middle.
We will see Jody Fortson open underneath and over the middle as well. JuJu Smith-Schuster will find plenty of room to roam underneath and over the middle. So will Skyy Moore.
In 2021, the Chiefs defense could only muster 31 sacks total. That’s about as low as you can go, although they did finish 29th in the NFL. Last year, Brendan Daly was the DL coach and this year it’s newcomer, Joe Cullen. In 2021, Cullen was the Jags Defensive Coordinator and the five years prior to that Cullen was the Ravens DL coach so he’s had plenty of experience there, with a very good unit. The point is, he’s not about to let Spags and Reid down. You can almost hear their meeting now about making sure the Chiefs DL has more than 31 sacks as well as more QB pressures.
The other critical stat we should see improvement on is: deep ball throws. Oh yes, I’m well aware that the team just traded away one of the best deep ball threats in the history of the game in the person of Tyreek Hill. However, a more balanced offensive attack will be applied and mean that whenever Reid does want to go deep, he should have more success than he did in 2021. PFF ranked Patrick Mahomes as the #6 Deep Ball Passer in 2021: “2021 Passing Grade: 91.8 | 2021 Yards per Attempt: 15.5 | 2021 Passer Rating: 113.3.” Mahomes was second behind only Deshaun Watson in this category in 2020, so somewhat of a correction is in order.
Andy Reid has become famous for jotting down plays on a napkin then seeing those same plays show up in games later that year. Because Reid will have a more balanced rushing and passing attack, we may not only see those plays — from napkin to field — more this year, but his sequence of plays may improve too:
Like Matt Derrick points out here, Reid’s offense can go on a run at any moment, but it makes you wonder if we really could see a 100 point game.
The Chiefs new Safety Justin Reid, also has noticed the Chiefs newest rookies: Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis,
“I think the first thing is that they came in with the right mentality,” Reid said on NFL Network. “They came in with their eyes wide open, ears wide listening, they take in advice from the older guys, the vets and coaches. This is no easy defense to just jump into. There are a lot of pieces that go into and mentally it’s very heavy. But George Karlaftis, Trent McDuffie and all the other guys who have come in have really had the right attitude. They’re getting coached up very well. They all have a very high motor and (are) excited to be here.” Justin Reid
Add LB Leo Chenal and Safety Bryan Cook to the list of quick-to-adapt rookies.
There’s a lot to like about this team. I like them enough to project them as the Super Bowl LVII winners!
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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