The Harsh Truth: Chiefs Unlikely To Extend Chris Jones

by Ransom Hawthorne | May 8, 2019

Note: first and foremost, shout-out to reader Dean Dahlquist who provided us with the idea for this article. -Ransom Hawthorne

In September, of 2018, SB Nation contributor, Bill Connelly, wrote a piece called, “What Roster Balance and Salary Cap Can Tell Us About This Year’s Top NFL Teams” and without getting into all the details, the basic essence is this: successful teams spend 52-59% of their cap space, on their top 10 (highest paid) players. For the Chiefs, this is particularly relevant, as Chris Jones is currently holding out for an extension. Here, I took a look into the financials, to see if this is feasible for the Chiefs to do.

The Chiefs 2020 Position

Before accounting for any cap space rollover, the Chiefs in 2020, are projected to have around $176M in cap commitments and $23M in remaining cap space, pre Over The Cap. From this, I’ll be using $200M as the expected salary cap for 2020. With that in mind, K.C. is slated to spend 61.56%, of their cap, on their top 10 players.

That’s not super far out of range, so it doesn’t seem like a huge deal. Consider this though: since 2011 only eight teams have spent over 60% of their cap space on their top 10… and… those teams average 5.5 wins. That’s pretty damning. If however, the Chiefs are able to roll over $10M+ in cap space, that puts them within a healthy range. The trouble, of course, is that the Chiefs 2020 lineup does not include a salary for CB Kendall Fuller, CB Bashaud Breeland, or DT Chris Jones, nor does it include an extension for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs could get rid of WR Sammy Watkins to free up $14M, or LT Eric Fisher to free up $9.5M. Either player could also be extended, with a low year-one cap hit.

Chris Jones in 2020

The problem, of course, is Chris Jones. As an elite interior DL, Jones is certain to command, at least Fletcher Cox type money, if not closer to Aaron Donald money. That means somewhere between $17M and $22.5M. Assuming the Chiefs were able to keep it closer to Cox’s money, which is pretty optimistic, they might be looking at $18M a year, or 9% of Chiefs’ base salary cap, maybe 8% if they roll significant cap space over. Finding space for Jones is nearly impossible, even before you start thinking about an extension for Mahomes, or bringing back one of your good CBs (Fuller or Breeland). You can structure his (Jones) contract to have a lower cap hit in 2020, and maybe get by releasing either Eric Fisher or Sammy Watkins, but neither player has a clear replacement. This year, no team, in the NFL, will pay two non-QBs more than $17M each. The Chiefs could buck conventional wisdom to keep both Frank Clark and Chris Jones, but it’s unlikely to end well.

2021 Salary Cap Position

The Chiefs cap position, on the surface looks great in 2021. With just $114.7M, in salary cap commitments, and a likely salary cap of $230M. However, that cap doesn’t include: Patrick Mahomes, Mitchell Schwartz, Cam Erving, Austin Reiter, or any of the 2020 FAs (Fuller, Breeland, Lee, Jones etc).

Patrick Mahomes on his own, will likely account for $40M. Schwartz, assuming he’s still playing, will probably be close to $10M. Assuming you keep both of them, that leaves you a respectable amount of cap space, but a whopping 62% of it invested in your top 10 players. Again, without Chris Jones, or Kendall Fuller. That’s a roster that’s great at the top, but full of UDFAs and stop-gaps, in the middle. There’s more flexibility with cuts, as Okafor, Kelce, Tardif, Fisher, and Mathieu, all have low dead money, but most of those guys you’d rather keep anyway.

Solving The Problem

The clearest route, to any salary cap issue, is drafting cheap replacements, for your expensive veterans. Since the Chiefs plan on picking near the bottom of the draft, for the foreseeable future, that’s tough. Just this year, the Chiefs really wanted a CB, but were unable, or unwilling, to either reach on a prospect, or give up capital to move up and get one. This resulted in a much better draft, than last year, but left serious needs unaddressed.

This is where Chris Jones can be useful. If he has another fantastic year, K.C. ought to be able to tag him, and trade him, in 2020, for two first round picks, or similar compensation. Ultimately, as much as I like Jones, this makes the most sense for the Chiefs. Instead of compounding their cap issues, by keeping Jones, the Chiefs should solve them by trading him to another team next year. 2020 should boast one of the deepest WR drafts since 2014. By securing two first round picks, Chiefs would be well positioned to address the secondary and find a replacement for Watkins.

This is the hardest part of football, to let go of an elite player, who’s also a great person but, that’s how NFL GMs earn their paychecks. If Brett Veach wants to prove he’s learned from Dorsey’s mistakes, this is where it starts. Gut the roster next year, to keep Jones, or trade him, to fix it. Any attempt to do neither will, ultimately, put the Chiefs in cap hell, and limit their ability to field a competitive team. While they will be in the mix, as long as they have Mahomes, I don’t think any of us want to see a Green Bay Aaron Rodgers situation happen here.

This team can win multiple Super Bowls, but doing so will require hard choices. I love Chris Jones, both as a player and a person. If they find a way to keep him, I’ll be happy. I just wonder how long that happiness will last. I don’t envy the job that GM Brett Veach has ahead of him. Things are going to get tricky these next few years. Let’s hope he’s up to the task. Go Chiefs.

Bonus Thoughts and What Not

DT is not traditionally a position where Spagnuolo has made huge investments. In 2016, the best recent year for Spags defense, the Giants paid their NT Damon Harrison, $6.6M. Their next highest paid DT was Johnathan Hankins, who made just $1.2M, and they let him depart, in free agency the next year, after starting all 16 games with 3 sacks, and 8 TFL. In the NFL, you have to save money somewhere and, for Steve Spagnuolo, one of those positions has been DT.

Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne

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