The Kansas City Chiefs Make
the Playoffs, Now What?
by Paul Pulley | January 3, 2019
The Chiefs looked unbeatable Sunday playing the Oakland Raiders, YAY!
The Chiefs won the AFC West for the third straight year, double YAY!
The Chiefs locked up home field throughout the playoffs, triple YAY!
So, now what? you ask. Well, that is yet to be determined. If the Indianapolis Colts defeat the Houston Texans on Saturday, the 5th, then the Chiefs will host the Colts for their first playoff game. If the Texans win that game on their home turf, then the Chiefs will be hosting the winner of the Los Angeles Chargers/Baltimore Ravens contest that will be played on Sunday, the 6th. No matter which one of the three teams comes to Arrowhead, the game will be played on Saturday, January 12th at approximately 3:30 PM Arrowhead time.
Chiefs and Balance Issues
The Chiefs are the most unbalanced team in the playoffs. For that matter, they are the most unbalanced team in the NFL. With the number 1 ranked offense for both yards/game and points/game. The Chiefs have the next to worst defense in the league, ranked 31st in yards/game, but the herculean effort by the defense holding the Raiders to just 3 points, moved their defensive points/game ranking from 29th to 24th.
The changes coach Reid made on the defenses personnel has made a nice improvement. Essentially benching Orlando Scandrick and Ron Parker were great moves. It wouldn’t bother me to bring Leon McQuay up from the practice squad and release Parker as we head into the postseason.
Charvarius Ward being promoted to third corner paid off well versus the Raiders. As a starter in week 16, Ward had a rough game against the Seahawks but responded very well in week 17. Although Ward seems unsure of his assignment on certain plays, he appears to have decent speed for the corner position and gets his head turned to look for the ball in coverage, which is paramount to prevent defensive pass interference penalties.
Possible Playoff Opponents
If the Chiefs first playoff opponent is either the Chargers or the Ravens, I’m looking at a fairly easy victory for the home team. Having played both of those teams within the past month or so, HC Andy Reid will have a game plan to attack those teams weaknesses learned from their last encounter. I’m not saying the game will be easy, but with the improvements on defense and hopefully the return of Eric Berry to a full time status, I think the Chiefs will be able to send either of those teams home for the season.
Since we’re all pretty familiar with both the Chargers and Ravens, I’m going to ignore them for now until we know for sure who our opponent will be.
Playing the Indianapolis Colts
If the Chiefs first playoff opponent is the Indianapolis Colts (and I kinda hope it is), it will present a challenge to both teams as both teams have gone through considerable changes since their last meeting.
Andrew Luck and the Colts have not played in Arrowhead since week 16 of the 2013 season. LT Anthony Castonzo, WR TY Hilton and K Adam Vinatieri were the only other current Colts that played in that game. There are only a few other players currently on the Colts team that have played games in Kansas City, but did so as members of other teams.
Other than Castonzo, the Colts offensive line is fairly young with two of their members 2018 draft picks, so the Arrowhead crowd could play a significant role with the Colts offense on the field.
The Colts have the 11th ranked defense in the NFL with the 16th ranked pass defense, and as we have seen multiple times, the Chiefs have no trouble moving the ball through the air against any defense, so this matchup should be favorable for the Chiefs. In addition, the Colts defense is tied for 19th in getting after the opposing QB, as they have accumulated 38 sacks on the season, compared to the Chiefs league best 52.
Indianapolis has the 7th ranked offense in yards/game and is the 5th ranked scoring offense. They have just the 20th ranked rushing offense, but are the 6th best at passing the ball. The Colts will be a challenge for the Chiefs defense if in fact we do end up playing them. The Colts offensive line, while young, have done a good job protecting Luck, only giving up a league low 18 sacks.
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A Quick Look Ahead at Next Year’s Draft
For the pessimists among us that believe the Chiefs will once again be one and done in the play-offs, and whether the Chiefs are indeed done early or make it all the way to the Super Bowl, draft season will be on us in the blink of an eye.
Unlike the tie breaking protocol to determine seeding in the playoffs, the first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule. When teams finish the regular season with identical records, the team with the easiest strength of schedule selects first. Strength of schedule is determined by the total win/loss percentage of any given teams opponents.
The first 20 picks in the NFL draft are reserved for those teams watching the playoffs from home, you know, teams like the Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers. 😏
Picks 21 through 24 go to the teams that get knocked out of the postseason during Wild Card Weekend. In other words, the 4 teams that lose this coming weekend will be selecting with those draft picks based on their regular season record.
Draft selections 25 through 28 belong to the losers of the Divisional Round. The Chiefs tied for the second best record during the regular season at 12-4 with the Los Angeles Chargers and the Chicago Bears. In the event that all three teams lost during the divisional round, the strength of schedule tiebreaker would have the Bears selecting first (who’s pick actually belongs to the Raiders), followed by the Chargers and then Kansas City.
In the unlikely event that the Chiefs are one and done, the absolute earliest they could select in the 2019 draft would be 26th, and in order to select that early, both the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints would have to lose in the divisional round also.
I’m hoping for a draft pick of number 32 and quite frankly, anything prior to 29 would be disappointing. But this is the NFL where parity reigns supreme and anything can happen on any given Sunday (or Saturday or Thursday).
Paul Pulley — ArrowheadOne
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