The Key to Winning the Free Agency Sweepstakes is Patience

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The Winning Formula is Balance — The Burst Ball Approach – arrowhead one logo.

Alright, y’all. The article is going to be a short one for two reasons:

  1. I don’t have a good story for the week, and
  2. It will not take long to make the point.

I feel very looped into the CHIEFS fan social media space. My work in the Arrowhead Kingdom has linked me with tens of thousands of fans worldwide. Growth in that network has connected me with other content creators and fan groups. I see a growing “Veach needs to start spending” narrative. The Chief’s off-season moves make sense as we watch the Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers magnetically suck up high-dollar talent. I understand but cannot get on board because of my gut feeling that method simply doesn’t work.

Gut feelings tell you nothing conclusive and are of little use in even the lightest of hearted debate. Data wins. I know this from the business world and have built my career on practical analysis to draw appropriate conclusions. I am not stating that I always get it right, but that is not the game. The game is to move forward while learning, and I do that well. Let’s start with some.

Fun Lists and Numbers

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The Numbers – Shutterstock Image Gallery

Here is a list of teams: Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, Titans. What is the first thing that comes to mind with that list? I highly doubt admiration comes up, and not for any recent offerings. The Raiders and Dolphins used to win a ton and combine for 5 Super Bowls. I was alive for the one 1983. The Titans are the most solid teams on this list and have lingered for the last decade.

Real talk: these teams have sucked for extended times, most in common. They have in common that they have each “won” at least 4 of the past ten offseason Free Agency periods. The teams under scrutiny have spent a combined $3.7 Billion on FA contracts in the past ten years, which is enough to build both Allegiant and MetLife stadiums (AKA the #2 and #3 most expensive stadiums in the world behind SoFi) and have a $100M to spare.

In fairness and transparency, I must note that NFL contracts are far from guaranteed, so maybe only one stadium gets built.

My Research and Reporting

My professional life often presents situations where I must make a business decision. The problem presented will be something to the effect of customer A is bad/good, sales are trending up/down, pricing is bad/reasonable, etc. I always have a gut reaction, but that is as useful as described above. Numbers tell a more truthful and better story. My approach is always to grab as broad a set of data as possible and group and categorize until I see a clear trend.

For this week’s column, I spent some time researching Free agent Spending on Spotrac. I was looking at top FA spending NFL teams from 2012 through the present offseason. The link goes to an excellent sorting tool that overviews offseason spending. My method was simple:

  • Pick the year
  • Sort by free agent spending
  • Note top 5 spenders as FA “winners”
  • Note Super Bowl winner and loser spend
  • Draw observations

I have already illustrated the first trend I noticed: winning the FA offseason does not equal winning a Super Bowl. It also does not similar playing in one.

The Last 10 Super Bowls

My research focused on making and winning Super Bowls. The 2017 prior version of most CHIEFS fans, self-included, expanded to playoffs or conference championship games. We are not there anymore. It’s Super Bowl or bust, baby!! Here are the trends and results I found:

Q: How many teams have spent big on FA and won a Super Bowl?

A: The Broncos and Bucs have spent big twice, and both won a Super Bowl. Tampa did their spending in 2012 and 2014. The Bucs grabbed nine wins in those seasons for the effort. The Glazers love that $300M+’s ROI. The Broncos spent big both of those years and went to the Super Bowl the following seasons. The Eagles and Patriots have spent big, but not in years close to a Super Bowl.

SPOILER: that Broncos comment just above and the next one below is the only real success I will be highlighting.

Q: Did any other team spend big close to a trip to the Super Bowl?

A: The 49ers spent big in 2018 and made the Super Bowl in 2019. AND LOST TO THE CHIEFS!!

Q: What is the average FA spend of the top 5 from 2012 – 2021?

A: The answer is $156M across the whole ten years. Over the period 2012-2016, it was $143M, and then it jumped to $168M the last five years. So we are sitting at $173M this offseason. Total FA spending is $8.7B, which is close to the 2021 GDP of Kosovo.

Q: How many of the 20 Super Bowl teams have spent the average?

A: ZERO!! The 2021 Bengals (pricks) spent the most at $130M, and the 2016 Falcons are the only other team to top $100M. The average Money spent by teams competing in a Super Bowl is $58M.

My Conclusions

I stand by my opinion that patience is the key to this game. As of this writing, the top FA spending teams are:

Jaguars – $261M
Bills – $164M
Dolphins – $155M
Jets – $145M
Chargers – $141M

Here is my question: why will this be the year that produces different results? On paper, the Bills and Chargers look like a team that can make such a leap. However, the 2019 Packers spent $186M on FA and looked the part. That worked out so well they cut Za’Darius Smith and tagged/traded DaVante Adams to his “dream come true” with the Raiders.

Do I believe we have holes on all levels of the Defense? Yes. Do I think it is wise to fill those holes with top dollar mercenaries in the Free Agent market? Absolutely Not. I feel Veach lurking. Each day that passes gets us closer to that tier 2 pay but tier 1B of production. That is where good teams live. The CHIEFS were a few plays away from another Super Bowl last season, and we can build back to that point before the draft.

Last Note

I don’t particularly appreciate that the Broncos are the team that figured out spending into enormous wins, but I do not view Russell Wilson as Peyton Manning. The AFC West is still our division. My last comment is: Get the Tyreek Hill extension done.

Kansas City Chiefs' Tyreek Hill is working to outrun past ...
Hill after a reception in the open field – review-journal photo

Spending big on Free Agency guarantees nothing in getting to the Super Bowl. It may mean putting together a team that can get there, but likely a year or two after such spending. Thus far, Brett Veach has solved problems and closed exposures. Veach’s job in the off-seasons it must seem like a round-the-clock job. Reaching the result never appears quick enough or fast enough.

Brett Veach’s Actions are not flashy. His moves so far have been immediately effective (The Hill trade on Wednesday Morning is a blockbuster, “Maverick” Move). If anything, Veach has been acutely selective and patient. He has not gotten into any bidding wars and hasn’t signed a free agent that would be a detriment to the future financial picture. Veach has been confident, balanced, and decisive. As written here at ArrowheadOne, there is a blueprint, and the Chiefs are sticking with the plan. It isn’t easy to see how things fit when viewed outside the kingdom.

I do agree with chatter about it “seemingly” taking too long. The keyword is “Seemingly.” My opinion significantly changes if the Veach efforts blow up.

Josh Kingsley – ArrowheadOne