The Monday Night Football Chiefs
by David Bell | November 18, 2018
I have the Chiefs, even on the road against a very good football team, over the Rams (now favored by 3 1/2). My prediction was 38-34 in favor of the Chiefs if you recall. Here are the things that I believe are going to be true about this game.
When the Chiefs Are On Defense
ILBs: Dorian O’Daniel will continue his ascension as ILB. The purpose is to get him matching to Todd Gurley and the run game while allowing Reggie Ragland to run downhill in the middle. O’Daniel is quick enough in getting to the the right place sideline-to-sideline and he will be the ILB responsible to stopping Ram RBs receiving the ball in the flats. I don’t know how Sutton will mix in with Hitchens but I am certain that we will see O’Daniel a lot simply because he can match up with Gurley outside and has shown the ability to avoid big men blocking into the second level and make plays. That was last week but I see no reason for this not to be the case this week. O’Daniel will be the fluid intercepting ILB and Ragland will bang heads and slam brain cells around. I suspect where speed is needed you will see Anthony Hitchens in place of Ragland.
The Front 5: with Justin Houston back on the field, the Chiefs have 3 solid pass rushers to go at Goff. Goff can be good getting the ball out quick but if he goes deeper he is going to step farther back in the pocket which gives Chris Jones inside and the Dee Ford/Justin Houston pressure pack from the extremes of the front 5. Keep in mind, Goff is going to use the short pass drill a lot. At the same time, his possession receiver, Cooper Kupp is out with injury. All Derrick Nnadi and Allen Bailey have to do (if they have a standard type 3-4 out there on the field), is put pressure on the blocking linemen. We watch Nnadi occupy two blockers inside last week. I am looking for Nnadi to continue to improve each week. He is beyond just barely getting it!. All would be good if either player got a sack, a hurry, tipped pass or knock down.
I like our 5 man front against anyone right now if it goes like it did v. the Cards. I look for different looks of the front and different players mixing in various combinations. Tanoh Kpassagnon and Breeland Speaks will indeed be in this mix. With Houston back up front, the run defense is also better. Oh. I look for at last 3 sacks from the front 5.
If the Chiefs push with five men they will be effective, disrupt the pocket, hurry throws and put a kink in Goff’s derriere. You’ll see a CB or Safety Blitz or two in the mix.
Cornerbacks: The Chiefs secondary boast 3 players, in the top 35 PFF rankings of Cornerbacks: Kendall Fuller, Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick. I don’t think any of them are All-Pro talent (at least not yet), but they have been playing as a threesome about as well as any other NFL team of late. Finally, the defense is gelling and the CB play is one of the reasons why.
Safeties: the Chiefs Safeties got back a missing in action player: Daniel Sorensen. Sorensen had a “break-in game” versus the Cardinals and played well, tentative at first, but overall… well. One thing was clear to me: he is good at stopping open field ball carriers and in combination with Dorian O’Daniel, so, I liked what I saw. I still like Sorensen as the #3 Safety and hybrid that he was successful with 2 seasons ago. I would prefer that to be how the Chiefs used him but it looks like we must wait for Berry to return and put him in position for that most effective role (ie, the nickel). Hence: Eric Murray should get a predominant amount of time in this game. He is playing well and Ron Parker’s role has diminished.
Caveats for the Defense
Eric Berry is still going to be doubtful and out. The Chiefs still have a weakness at Safety due to that. I look for Murray and Sorensen for most of the snaps. It would be better if Parker were playing well… but he isn’t. It is not the ideal group of players for defense but is getting back to that level of play with the right players on the field. We are in better shape as a unit for the past few weeks. I see that as a positive sign for this game — stopping the Rams before they get into a position to score, and limiting any trips to the red zone for field goal attempts would certainly set the offense up for their tasks. That would be good.
When the Chiefs Are On Offense
Skilled Players: I really can’t see much to criticize when discussing the players who handle the ball. I do hope that Sammy Watkins can play. He is a part of this offensive engine and has a veterans patience for letting the game plays break his way. It would be a shame to miss the game.
The Front Five: the Chiefs are again facing a team with two good pass rushers. They will need better blocking than they had last week in giving up hurries and 5 sacks. The left side of the line struggled at times and even Mitch Schwartz gave up his first sack of the season last week. Look for Reid to specifically use Kareem Hunt or Spencer Ware in delayed floods to the zone to alleviate problems with the pass rush and provide Patrick Mahomes a release valve. I also see that the run game could work well in this game coupled with the short pass drill to open things up longer. Mahomes has got to keep the clock in proper timing for his drops. He failed a few times in this regard last week.
Fisher and Andrew Wylie both struggle in pass protection. Again, look for Reid to figure in a compensation scheme if that continues in this game. That would include Reid’s playcalling by the way.
If I had to guess? Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt get on towards 100 yards receiving with the RBs both tallying jointly more than 100 yards rushing. This game is an example of why Watkins is important — occupying Marcus Peters. OTOH, if Watkins can’t go, look for some special plays with Chris Conley getting underneath a Kelce inside-out move, screening Peters and and Conley making the grab high and over the middle of the field. For the Chiefs, they have more weapons to deploy than the Rams. Mahomes will use them if Reid’s playcalling is in sync with the players and situations on the field.
Caveats for the Offense
Stay within the game plan and play — stop stupid penalties. Do the basic task, play by play.
When the Chiefs Are On Special Teams
Dave Toub’s units have a special opponent in the Rams unit, especially when they are kicking the ball. Toub is aware of this and he has coached all week on who is responsible for coverage and getting the potential passer, in this case would be a pas play by the placeholder. Don’t look for the Chiefs to be fooled. I would expect the same week-in, week-out, high level of play from special teams.
I have no doubts that such as situation will get managed and because the Chiefs are a top special teams opponent, getting fooled on this is not in the cards.
David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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