The NFL Crystal Ball Effect and some Odds & Ends

Predicted Win Totals

The predictions are in for predicted win totals. The only non-factor is the Browns, who have a new QB — Deshaun Watson but since his availability for week one is in question, no prediction was made for their predicted win total.

Average Win Totals per division (AFC North excluded)

• AFC West – 9.75
• NFC West – 8.9
• AFC East – 8.6
• NFC East – 8.4
• NFC North – 8.25
• NFC South – 7.6
• AFC South – 7.3

Predicted Win totals for the NFL show that the Chiefs tied with the Cowboys and Rams with 10.5 wins. In the AFC, the Chiefs trail only the Bills, who have an 11.5 win prediction on the AFC side of things. In the NFC, the Bucs are predicted to win 11.5 and the Packers 11. The AFC West stacks up to be the most competitive division in the NFL. This makes the Chief’s tied for 4th among all teams for total predicted wins. As you can see, the AFC West is the most competitive division in this forecast.

The AFC

The NFC

We are 14 Days Away from Pick #1

I sure am being patient about waiting on the draft. Aren’t you? Truly, I would like to see the Chiefs sign a F/A DE or CB or both before we get to the draft. Two players are constantly in such conversations; DE Melvin Ingram(Chiefs Free Agent) and CB Stephon Gilmore(Panthers Free Agent). Fortunately, neither has signed a contract with a team if either is a Veach target.

Do the Chiefs have the funds to make both signings? The answer is Yes!

If it turns out that the Chiefs use up most of that #18M, Brett Veach could always rework a contract to gain more. Oh, we might as well throw in Seattle WR DK Metcalf. That acquisition would be too rich in the near future, and If I had a vote, it would be cast in the Nay Column. Metcalf’s acquisition would give Mahomes a much-desired target. He would fit the Chiefs offense and my recent conversion to Nate Taylor’s new hybrid meme for Big, tough, fast WRs. The problem with such a deal is the salary demands that would soon follow his arrival — to the tune of $20M(give or take).

An Interesting Mock

Twelve rookies are too many players who need intensive coaching and using them to make a single selection makes sense. I would also double-dip for the WR role. Still, the mock illustrates something that could well happen or something close to it. Jordan Foote – @footnoted – did this mock:

A look at Sam Williams(DE, Ole Miss) – A DE I like for the 2nd Double-Dip DE for Veach

The more I have looked at Sam Williams, the more I have thought he would be a good fit as the second DE taken in the draft.

I found Daniel Harms covering Williams at RGR. It would be best to take the time to view the Harms analysis. My question is, who would be the first choice. That is a separate topic.

Selecting either Mafe or Ojabo as the first DE is predicated on re-signing Melvin Ingram as I see things. If you have been following my idea about Boye Mafe(Minnesota DE), or maybe this is the right point in time to draft Ojabo, another thing that I think brings a top player to the Roster. See it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iV-IqvmNLc

Oh, Betsy – A Trade Up?

If we review the drafts and actions taken by Brett Veach since he took over as GM, you can count on Veach to be aggressive. If I presume this to be the case, then to get the player deemed to be an immediate starter, a big impact player, the Chiefs will execute a trade to accomplish that and move up in the draft. Daniel Harms of RGR Football thinks the Chiefs should use all six of their first three-round picks to take a stab at finding impact players because there are so many holes to fill. What if Veach and his team have done all the homework? By constructing their draft board and running countless mocks, they have found that the apple of their eye will already be plucked from the tree? What then? The Chiefs will trade up to get that player. So it might be they must use three picks to get to pick #17. Or two picks to move to slot #21.

This is very plausible because of Brett Veach’s history as the GM. I cannot determine who that player might be. I can make the following presumption: It will be a skilled player, which means it will be a WR, or it will be a DE because, along the Defensive Front, that is the most glaring position with a lack of proven talent.

If this is the only way for the Chiefs to acquire the sure-bet player “X,” Brett Veach will surely move up in the draft to draft that player they covet. This scenario is something I do in my testing with mock draft simulators.

Things don’t happen frequently or quickly enough at this point in the off-season!
David Bell – ArrowheadOne