The NSLU Chiefs Wednesday: You Get What You Get And You’ll Like What You Got

The NSLU Chiefs Wednesday:

You Get What You Get &

You’ll Like What You Got

 · by David Bell

The Sports Illustrated W-L Prediction
This past week, Sports Illustrated evaluated each team and came up with a prediction of what their 2018 records would become. For the Chiefs, it was forecast to be 11-5. SI gives Andy Reid a lot of credit and observed the steady hand of Alex Smith and a “stout” defense have been the general reason the Chiefs win in the regular season. However, Alex Smith has departed and Patrick Mahomes will be under center. SI noted that the sample pool of games started by Mahomes was too small to read anything into it. They observed though that Reid has had only one losing season since 2006 — which came in 2012, his last at Philly — and they found that the defense would look nothing like it had in the recent past with the departures of Peters, Mitchell, Gaines and Acker. What surprised me was there was no mention of Hali and Johnson.

Bottom line was that they substitute in the secondary: Kendall Fuller, David Amerson and Robert Golden along with the return of Berry to be enough in order to myself? I think it goes deeper than this but the offense should be stronger than anything we have seen in eons. The question will be, how well the new defense is going to earn stripes. My view also is that Bob Sutton and Co. are not looking at building a traditional 3-4 defense…. they will be looking to find ways to fit the young guys into games, frame by frame.

Prisco on Mahomes

NFL author Pete Prisco observed that Mahomes has “the strongest arm in the league probably… he’s going to take some chances. So you know what he’s going to do? He’s going to use practice to figure out how and when he can use his arm and get in tight windows.”

This is an important observation. In the same subject matter of Mahomes he observed that PM was a good student of film and using practice to work out kinks and how he would avoid dangers. We’ll have to see how well Patrick does in this regard.

Sweeney on Watkins

Pete Sweeney had a good piece on what the Chiefs were doing with Sammy Watkins. Andy Reid has been very impressed with how quickly Watkins has been a fit and the speed with which he has taken on the playbook.

Sweeney noted Watkins statement about being “reptilian” which he said may not be too far off. The point that Watkins is making is that he has not had the opportunity with the write offense and the right “targeting” to use all his talents. Sweeney quoted Watkins who tweeted: “I’m a whole different species, I’m convince I’m not a human, never was, I’m more like a advance reptilian solar being I’m very powerful it’s kinda scares me lol…”

What I think About Watkins?

What I think is that Watkins, when loosed in the offense at KC can play the possession role, the #1 role and do well out of the slot and he will find a way to get open. This is a bit of a different option than Hill and strengthens the opportunities for both players.

Reid, RPO, RPS, Spread or Play Action?

What I look forward to is the opportunity to fool defenses with the RPO or Play Action sets and anyone who followed ArrowheadOne last season knows I was hot on getting play-calling to use Play Action a lot more.

If Andy Reid then adds RPS into the picture, you have another dimensional threat not to mention the spread. We won’t know much about how the offense is geared to Mahomes from which set up or the playbook itself, but it is going to have added plays that are fits to Mahomes skill and talent and it will be potent. No matter what we know Hill, Conley and Watkins have top speed. When you add a TE with the same threat speed-wise? Look out. We know that Hill has top end speed but Watkins brings the same thing when he came to the NFL with 4.38 – 40 speed. Watkins knows how to get open. Add to that Chris Conley who’s returning from injury and you have a potent trio of Wide Receivers complemented by Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt.

Reid observed about Sammy Watkins: “We’re moving him all over the place and he’s handled it,” Reid said of Watkins. “We’ve overloaded him with that. That’s how we do it with this offense. That’s something new for him, again you can tell he’s a guy that takes it away from here and studies.”

Watkins went on to say himself: “This offense is the broadest offense I’ve ever been in… I have to be focused and in tune to meetings. You have to do that off-field work….I’ve got to run the whole route tree—my standard that he wants.”

 Mahomes – the RPO

With the speed and talent of the Chiefs receiving corps, Mahomes is very likely going to be using a lot of plays with the RPO and getting the ball out quickly to one of 3 or 4 targets, no matter which formation is used. Mahomes will have to make the appropriate read but he already is competent at making quick decisions from his college years so look for this to be a strength – find the receiver inside with Kelce or Watkins for example who is getting open. Or Hill outside in a deeper route – one where you don’t know if he is going to put on a burst down the sideline or set up a crossing route himself. Add to this Chris Conley or Kareem Hunt and you are going to see a lot of difficult situations for any defense to cover. I can see it now with focus to the strong side and Kelce using his speed to get open from the backside.

Why this works with Play Action?

With Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware or one of the William’s Boys, the Chiefs have talent that can run the ball or catch it in the aerial game. It appears to me that holding linebackers in with the run threat makes the aerial game go and vice versa. Just those two offensive constructs are a huge game set to toss the defenders way.

Add to this? Two and Three Tight End sets and here you have mismatches that confuse hell out of defenders, especially with Hunt in the backfield at the same time.

So Andy, Stay Out of Your Own Way

What gets me is that Andy Reid has built a playbook that is complicated and it could be simplified for new personnel – to get them on board more quickly. When you have players who are intelligent enough to get it down quickly, as Watkins is showing he can do, then we are immediately adding an experienced pro to the mix who will produce. What gets me about Reid is that perhaps he is the biggest thorn in his own side is himself when calling plays.

Go figure that one but I think it was obviously true and proven when Nagy took over play calling and redesigned the blocking scheme for the front 5 at the time of the Chiefs losing streak in 2017. Nagy is gone but can Reid stay out of his own way?

David Bell * No Stone Left Unturned

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