Laddie Morse

The Chiefs must run the ball more. There you have it. Article over. Actually, you may be interested in why I’ve said that and exactly how many times per game they must run the ball. First, we must consider the 7 games the Chiefs have played this year and look at the ratio of running, to passing plays.

The key stat here is outlined in red. The Chiefs have won every game this year — with one exception — when they’ve run the ball more than 23.8 times. Why the Chargers game was an anomaly I’m unsure except to say, it was still early in the season and the brand spanking new offensive linemen were still getting used to each other.

Let’s focus on the losses first, though painful that may be. K.C. ran the ball 18 times vs the Ravens and still lost by one. K.C. ran the ball only 23 times vs the Bills and lost that game by 18. Why Andy Reid only called 13 running plays vs the Titans is beyond me, but they obviously came away with their worst loss of the year… perhaps of the Patrick Mahomes era.

One reason the Chiefs need to be running the ball more is, balance, to the offense. In their KCSportsNetwork Podcast, ex-Chiefs, Jeff Allen and Mike DeVito, talk about the importance of “continuity” and coming together as a group for the Chiefs along the OL:

I don’t think the OL has been the primary issue for the Chiefs offense in 2021, but the transition of an all new band of brothers up front, has been a contributing factor in the team’s lack of success so far. Plus, that’s putting more pressure on Patrick Mahomes, which, hasn’t been the answer this season and as great as he is, there’s no reason to think that putting more on his plate will work out in the future. A much bigger reason for needing to run the ball more, is that K.C. has been facing a ton of:

Light Boxes

To begin with, and Marcus Spears was wrong about this one, but the Chiefs ran the ball 28 times, not 21, versus the Washington Football team. Spears also makes a great point: since the Chiefs are facing so many light boxes, they must take advantage of that. It raises the question: why haven’t the Chiefs taken advantage of the light boxes they’ve faced this year?

The Answer is the Problem

Patrick Mahomes is a great player. Period. Full Stop.

That being said, when you take the best long ball coach and pair him with the best long ball passer, you’re going to have trouble holding them back from throwing the long ball as often as possible.

Mahomes taking a deep drop in the pocket, has become his standard approach. The way the offensive line was not able to protect him last year helped to create this “adaptive” behavior. You would think that an offseason of getting used to his new offensive line would have changed all that, but often times, an athlete can become stuck in a negative pattern unless he forces himself to think, and act, differently. That’s no small feat, making a change like that.

Part of the difficulty comes from having played the game a certain, and very specific, way for years now, and perhaps the most important part of that is wanting to put himself in a position to not throw the long ball. Why wouldn’t he want to? He has the most dangerous, and speed demony long ball receiver in the league in Tyreek “Cheetah” Hill.

Here, from NBC Rumors, Mahomes explains that he has work to do to get better. Much of it seems like coach-speak in the form of player-speak:

“It’s just stuff that I’ve always got to work on…. There were times where I maybe could have stepped and found a soft spot in the pocket where [instead] I kind of got out of there and tried to make something happen…. Whenever we don’t get going as an offense, it’s usually because I’m doing little things like that.”

Saying that the Chiefs should just go out and start “taking what they give you,” is fools gold for a QB like Patrick Mahomes. Until he sees the value in dinking and dunking his way down the field — ala Tom Brady — he’s just not going to do it, and perhaps more importantly, his coach isn’t going to change the way he calls the game, just to placate some pundit’s opinions.

Consequently, Andy Reid is as much a part of this problem as is Patrick Mahomes.

The Importance of Run Blocking

Mitchell Schwartz’ brother Geoff, who played OL for the Chiefs in Reid’s first year here in 2013, joins the Mina Kimes’ Podcast and describes the importance of run blocking on play action passes:

Geoff Schwartz also talks about being aggressive as an offensive lineman and that’s an important aspect of run blocking: leaving the defensive front seven guessing if you’re going to ram the run down their throats or drop into pass protection. In games where K.C. runs the ball so few times, the defensive front sevens they face can pin their ears back and bring it. When the Chiefs continue to threaten the defense through the –> possibility of the run — it forces them to stay honest. Right now, the Chiefs have lost that battle before the battle even begins. From @joeyanalytics:

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“Patrick Mahomes is facing two-high safety coverages at the highest rate in the NFL this season. Opposing defenses are clearly attempting to prevent the Chiefs explosive pass, and it’s working thus far.”

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It’s also worth noting that the teams at the bottom of this chart have good running backs like: Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs (Kenyan Drake in his absence), Javonte Adams, Dalvin Cook, Chuba Hubbard (subbing for Christian McCaffrey), D’Andre Swift, or QBs who are mobile like Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts.

OL Blame Game

Do you believe the Offensive Line is in trouble? Even Orlando Brown’s sacks were caused mostly by Patrick Mahomes taking too deep a drop. Some even think the whole K.C. offense is not in trouble.

Marcus Spears is right here, there have been 167 Total Interceptions so far this year when adding all NFL team’s INTs together, while there have only been 105 total Fumbles. In other words, Running the ball more should produce fewer turnovers.

Expectations

The task is getting the other teams to expect, and respect, the run, but you can’t get them to do that –> if you don’t run the ball enough, or effectively enough! This is not about Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Darrel Williams, mostly, it’s about play design and the whole offensive approach to a game. I may think that CEH was drafted too early and that the Chiefs could have gotten a very good RB in a later round. Just consider that Darrel Williams is a UDFA in 2018, and RB Kareem Hunt was a 3rd round pick in 2017. Alvin Kamara, who I consider a top five RB in the NFL right now, was also a 3rd round pick in 2017. So, by saying that the Chiefs need to run the ball more, doesn’t have much to do with who is running it. Remember, Andy Reid teams in K.C. have been successful running the ball before with guys like Spencer Ware, a 6th round pick by Seattle, and Charcandrick West, a UDFA by K.C..

As Marcus Spears has pointed out — and rather succinctly — the Chiefs don’t need to run the ball 40 times per game to be successful. However, they do need to make sure they run it 24 times or more on average per game, or 37%+ of the time. Facing light boxes should cause Reid to design a number of running plays and have them at the ready, which Mahomes can audible to at the line of scrimmage, on any given play. As high-powered an aerial attack as K.C. potentially has right now, until they begin establishing the run more, it looks like they’re heading down a road that doesn’t include the post-season this year.

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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