The Season of the Wentz: Why it Matters to K.C. – So, QB Carson Wentz was traded yesterday from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Indianapolis Colts, huh? Wentz was drafted second overall in the 2016 NFL draft but has now been said to be the Philly Love story which has ended in a messy divorce. Philly will take on $33.8M in dead-cap because of this trade, which is the single largest dead-cap hit in the history of the NFL. Indianapolis Colts Head Coach, Frank Reich, was the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Coordinator at the time when Philly drafted Wentz, so now the two are reunited.
Wow, what an implausible misstep. While some don’t prescribe to that point of view, allow me to explain. The Colts were supposedly a very good QB away from contending in the AFC, or so the story goes (and no, Philip Rivers was not the answer). Any team that can mount a realistic threat to the Kansas City Chiefs should be taken seriously. Right? I guess, but in this case, the Colts may have opened a wound, instead of healing hope. TheBleacherReport quotes Joseph Santoliquito of the PhillyVoice.com who says of Wentz:
“Indeed, sources describe Wentz as ‘incredibly hard working,’ ‘determined,’ and ‘highly intelligent.’ But the true Wentz is more nuanced and complicated, with sources describing him as ‘selfish,’ ‘uncompromising,’ ‘egotistical,’ one who plays ‘favorites’ and doesn’t like to be ‘questioned,’ one who needs to ‘practice what he preaches’ and fails ‘to take accountability.’
While Indy HC, Frank Reich, might be able to get the best out of Wentz, Wentz’ recent past is sketchy and revealing, and there seems to be more doubt than certainty that Reich would be able to help him. Another reason I’m not expecting Wentz to be the difference maker for Indy is, they were 10th in Offense in 2020, and I just don’t see Wentz making them a better Offense than that. Rivers, Indy’s 2020 QB, threw for 4,169 yards and 24 TDs, 11 INTs. Wentz had 16 TDs last year with 15 INTs. Even if Wentz is good in 2021, it’s hard to see him being that good. For K.C., it’s about more than that, much, much more.
I was going to name this piece: “The Offseason of the QB” in which I show how all the turmoil and QB vacancies in the league helps K.C., especially in the draft, where up to 6 QB prospects could get drafted before the Chiefs pick at #31… and then Wentz went and got himself traded to Indy making a juicy story, juicier. With juice on it.
While K.C. fans are well aware of what it’s like to go on hoping for a franchise QB — not just from one season to the next, but decade upon decade — now a majority of teams are in that place and their fans are in that state of mind. In the meantime, K.C. goes on touting the best in the biz. It’s become a case of: one inmate watching the wardens fight it out, while the inmate has become the real warden. Or, a case of: the tenant watching the Landlords duke it out, while the tenant buys the building (I thought Tyrann Mathieu might appreciate that one).
Or, in reality, the Chiefs, and their fans, are watching the rest of the league fight it out over who will get the next supposedly great QB… while the Chiefs already have that guy! It’s like that TV Show: The Amazing Race… only the Chiefs have already won it!
With the QB situation across the league being what it is, it’s hard to believe, but very few teams have the guy they want to stick with. In fact, that’s the mirage reason for this:
- The Seattle Seahawks could be trading Russell Wilson? What?!
- The Dallas Cowboys haven’t yet decided if they want to make Dak Prescott their franchise guy?
- The Las Vegas Raiders are still rumored to be replacing their QB, Derek Carr?
- Roethlisberger wants to come back in Pittsburgh, but they can’t afford to bring back Mr. Washed Up?
- Chicago needs a true QB to replace Trubisky?
- The Packers have placed themselves in QB limbo by drafting a franchise replacement a year ago?
In any other offseason, just one of those stories would be “the” story of the offseason. Not this year and I think the presence of Patrick Mahomes, and the K.C. offense, has a lot to do with that. BTW, so does Tom Brady.
What I mean by that is… no team could figure out how to outplay Patrick Mahomes until the Bucs did it in Super Bowl LV. Now, teams think they can do the same by getting their own QB replacement (like the Bucs did last offseason, and that’s part of the reason QB Marcus Mariota is being considered by some teams) then beefing up their defense. However, if NFL teams are truly being “reactive” instead of “proactive,” they’ve all been affixed on failure, and continue to be.
Consider the small number of teams who are completely satisfied with their QBs:
- BUF – Josh Allen
- BAL – Lamar Jackson
- CLE – Baker Mayfield
- TEN – Ryan Tannehill
- LAC – Justin Herbert
- NYG – Daniel Jones
- GBP – Aaron Rodgers
- MIN – Kirk Cousins
- TBB – Tom Brady
- AZC – Kyler Murray
While many of these QBs appear ready to service their teams for years to come, there’s no telling what teams like the Titans, the Giants or the Buccaneers will do a year or two from now if things go south. Even if you add another 6 teams to this list, which is meant to identify teams with stable QB situations, that’s only half the league. It’s an offseason gone wild when it comes to teams trying to connect with, and secure, a franchise QB.
Last offseason, 6 teams either drafted a starting QB or signed one including the: Dolphins, Patriots, Colts, Bengals, Chargers, and Buccaneers, and that doesn’t count the Packers drafting Aaron Rodgers’ eventual replacement, Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts, who was drafted in the 2nd round, then took over for Wentz in Philly. It’s hard to imagine there being less than that this offseason and 2 or 3 teams have already acquired new QBs: Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff and now Carson Wentz to Indy.
While teams are playing QB Musical Chairs — and although that may be intriguing from afar to Chiefs fans — the NFL QB Black Hole impacts the 2021 draft, and dramatically so. Take a look at the top prospects where there are up to six (6) QBs who could be taken before pick #31, when the Chiefs will make their first selection.
- Trevor Lawrence – a lock to go first overall
- Zach Wilson – a BYU product with Patrick Mahomes escapability. Thedraftnetwork calls some of his QB feats, “rare.”
- Justin Fields – SBNation says Fields is athletic and Daniel Jeremiah has him going to Atlanta at #4. Although both DrafTek and CBS Sports rank Wilson ahead of Fields, I have them the other way around, not that they’ll be drafted that way.
- Trey Lance – His accuracy and ability to run and fake runs (which I’ve never seen a QB do) are standout qualities scouts can’t ignore.
- Kyle Trask – I place him ahead of Mac Jones, but Trask has his own Pro skill set that should make teams sit up and take notice.
- Mac Jones – is ranked ahead of Trask by both DrafTek and CBS Sports, but I’m doubtful of Alabama products who play with all other 4 and 5 star athletes, as attested to by WRs, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith, both being ranked in the top 10 this offseason by DrafTek and CBS Sports. Still Mac Jones threw for over 4,500 yards and a 77% completion rate his senior year. I’ll be fairly surprised if he’s not a first round pick with all the teams who have said they need a franchise QB.
Things That Go BUMP in the Night
If K.C. has the benefit of having 6 teams drafting a QB in the first round before they pick, it means the Chiefs will have a much better chance of securing the prospect of their dreams… the guy they really want. In a draft that is supposed to be full of excellent Offensive Line prospects, this bodes well for a team like K.C. who is needing to focus on making their own OL a much stronger unit. It also means any other highly skilled players, at any other positions, will be available to them as well.
NFL teams fighting it out for their own version of Patrick Mahomes, while K.C. owns the only real Patrick Mahomes, makes the process of fixing the Chiefs other weaknesses a much easier proposition.
When I first presented “The Bump Method” a year ago, I focused on these positions: LB, CB and OL. So, who did K.C. draft with their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks? A LB (Willie Gay Jr.), an OL (Lucas Niang), and a CB (L’Jarius Sneed). While Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a surprise to me, I doubt we’ll have any surprises this time around as the Offensive Line situation is what I’d call dire (although Andy Reid says it’s not)…
… and the Defensive End position is what I’d rate as “Important,” then I’d say the LB position continues to be a “High Need.”
What does it all mean? It means that Brett Veach and his Scouting collaborative should be able to draft: OT, DE, and LB all within the top 144 picks in the draft (rounds 1-through-4 including two 4th round picks, what I am projecting as a 4th round Comp pick). That’s 5 picks in the first four rounds.
Note: Compensatory picks have not yet been assigned by the league, so the exact number of the Chiefs late fourth round pick is unknown. This information is based on First-Pick.com
Now, like David Bell, I think the Chiefs will draft a CB in every draft if they can. K.C. has drafted a DB 11 times in the past 6 drafts, so there’s solid proof of that happening again this year. However, I’m comfortable projecting that the Chiefs will draft 4 of these positions in their first 5 picks: OT, DE, LB, IOL. Add in a DB and you have what is likely to be the Chiefs 2021 draft up top.
The fun part for Chiefs fans is… K.C. should be getting much better players, possibly even three starters from that group. All the while, other teams in the NFL will continue playing “Where’s Waldo?”… err… Mahomes? Sit back and enjoy the ride!
From “The Season of the Witch“
~ by Donovan, 1966
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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