The Underwear Olympics: What To Do With Combine Numbers

The Underwear Olympics: What

To Do With Combine Numbers

by Ransom Hawthorne | February 28, 2019

The NFL combine is finally here! With it, the data draft geeks crave to inform their opinions, on various prospects. Of course you’ll also see a fair number of bad takes based on surface analysis of athletic testing. Here’s a few things you need to know about what to look for at the combine, and what to ignore.

Remember, the Tape is King

When you see that guy you’ve never heard of blow up the combine, here’s something to remember: tape is king. Good athletes with bade tape have about as much chance of succeeding in the NFL as Lithuanian discus thrower: Tautvydas Kieras. Some of you die-hard Chiefs fans may remember that Kieras was signed, in the off-season, as a freak athlete. I don’t think he even made it through training camp. If you haven’t figured out football, at the college level, the odds of you putting it all together, in the NFL, are pretty slim. There are success stories, but they are stories for a reason: because they are uniquely rare. Don’t be fooled by a flashy athlete who doesn’t flash on the field.

The Short Shuttle Time is HUGE

Fans pay the most attention to the 40 yard dash, but the 20 yard shuttle has far more importance. Per Josh Norris of Rotoworld, among Offensive Lineman: players with, “19 of the top 22 times, were players who got drafted. Those 19 OL went on to start 85% of their NFL games, on average.”

Big receivers tend to have success, but what lets the little guys succeed, in the big leagues? Perhaps the better question is: what do Julian Edelman and Wes Welker have in common? Both had 40 times slower than 4.5, (Welker was a 4.65!), but both had short shuttles that were 4.01, or faster. If you don’t have the body to box people out, you better have the feet and consequently, athletic testing (3-cone and short shuttle times), to get open.

For CBs, short shuttle, is clearly important, since they have to stick with those shifty guys. Among Marcus Peters, Ronald Darby, Jalen Ramsey, and Patrick Peterson, not a one had a short shuttle slower than 4.2. Some of the bigger press CBs can get by, with slower shuttle times, but such Corners may struggle with smaller shifty wide-outs… if they can’t get hands on them at the line.

A Jump In Competition

When people think about the vertical jump, they often think about WRs or CBs, going up to get the ball. What’s more critical, actually is what the jumps (vertical and broad) say about your explosion. RBs and pass rushers need to test tops, in their position groups, to draw attention. For Running Backs look for broad jumps of 10’ or better, and vertical jumps of 35” or better. Keep in mind that the bigger the back, the more impressive the jump. Justin Houston, and Dee Ford, both had impressive jumps, in the testing process, posting broad jumps 10’4” or better, and vertical jumps 35.5” or better.

The 3-Cone of Silence

3-cone is a complementary stat. It’s not the first thing you look at, but it can be the cherry on top, or the fly in the ointment. CBs should test well in the 3-cone, running no slower than 7 seconds. For WRs, it depends on their size, smaller wideouts better test well, whereas bigger, possession types, don’t have to be quite as fluid. Linebackers, who are going to have any kind of coverage responsibilities, should post good times, though enforcer type Mikes can get by running a little slower. 3-cone is best used as a tool to analyze tape. If a guy looks stiff, on tape, but tests well, at the combine, he might just lack instincts, or be slow to react. If a guy looks like a good athlete on tape, but tests poorly at the combine, it could be an underlying medical issue, or his football IQ could have allowed him to look more athletic, on tape, than he is. Since instincts, for linebackers, are incredibly important, don’t shy away from a guy who tests poorly, if he looks good on tape. If a guy looks stiff on tape, and runs slow in the 3-cone, write him off, he’s not going to do well in the NFL.

Riding The Bench

Kind of a tertiary statistic is the Bench press. It only really matters in a few specific situations. Press CBs need to test at least ok in the bench, as do outside WRs, who will have blocking duties. It garners the most attention for OL and DL, but, at both positions, it’s really more about the technique, with strength being the cherry on top. Personally, I view the bench more as an elimination test than a display of promise. The number of 30 bench reps doesn’t impress me that much more than 24, when it comes to DL, or OL. If a guy posts a huge number, you check the tape. Strength is only useful if it shows up on the field.

A low number of bench reps can be a problem though. When WRs can’t throw the bar up 10 times, you start to worry about their ability to get off press coverage. If a TE can’t hit at least 14 bench reps, don’t expect them to come into the NFL, and be able to block. Bench press is a little test, but it is an important one. Some players will choose to forego it, either due to injury, fear of injury, or the simple knowledge that they aren’t going to do well. If a player already has strength concerns, and opts out of the bench press, don’t expect them to go far, in the NFL.

The combine is biggest for small school players, and guys with some athletic concerns. You may hear about players rising, or falling, in the draft, based on their combine results. Smart teams don’t fall in love with numbers though. There’s no substitute for on-field production. Guys like Tanoh Kpassagnon and Phillip Gaines will wow on draft day, but players like Derrick Nnadi, and Steven Nelson will play on Sunday. Let the combine numbers guide you to the players, but use the tape to make your mind up. We know Veach will. Go Chiefs.

Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne

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