Three Phases of the 2019 Chiefs: Past, Present, and Future

Three Phases of the 2019 Chiefs: Past, Present, and Future – this season has had more twists and turns than an Agatha Christie novel. From the dizzying debut of Chiefs offense, to the sudden emergence of the defense, it’s been quite a ride. At times elating, suspenseful, and depressing, this is Chiefs story, told in three phases.

Phase One: The Offense

Fans have had just the smallest taste of what this offense should be. In game one, when fully healthy, Patrick Mahomes dismantled an elite Jacksonville defense, drive after drive. He was on pace for more touchdowns than the previous year. However, the poor sportsmanship of the Jaguars was on display, and their late hits, and extra curriculars eventually led to some injuries, not the least of which was to Mahomes, himself. Tyreek Hill proved to be the most significant initial loss, as he sustained a nearly life-threatening injury that would sideline him for weeks. All this limited the offense, right out of the gate.

You can’t talk about where the Chiefs are now, without talking about injury. While Hill and Watkins have finally returned, and Damien Williams looks truly up to speed, LT Eric Fisher remains sidelined, and RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif has joined him. The injury that sidelined Andrew Wylie, earlier, led to Martinas Rankin taking his spot, at LG. Wylie, now, is playing at RG. While he played better, in that position, last year, flipping sides is rarely a recipe for improved play, on the OL. Former Iowa OT, Tristan Wirfs, spoke about this difficulty when he was bouncing between Right Tackle and Left Tackle:

“It’s kind of like wiping your butt with the other hand when you first start doing it,” Wirfs said. “It just feels awkward. That might be too much information [TMI], but that’s kind of what it is. Once you settle in, you feel pretty good.”

After missing, nearly three weeks of action, Mahomes is poised to return. Full health has eluded, him to this point and an unrestrained, scrambling, version of him doesn’t seem like it will make an appearance, till the playoffs, if even then. Still, 85-90% of Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL. Titans defense is a formidable bunch, but they’re no match for a football demigod, who’s been itching to get off the bench. Mahomes will look as good as he has, since the Jacksonville game, even if he may need a drive or two to knock the rust off.

Going forward, Chiefs schedule gets quite a bit easier, facing just one good team, after the bye week, in the New England Patriots. Just how good that team is remains to be seen, as they faced, perhaps, the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point. If Chiefs can finally stop sustaining injuries, this offense should be ready to explode back onto the scene.

Phase 2: Defense

What a roller coaster ride. DC Steve Spagnuolo has gone from savior to scapegoat more times than any coach should in the eyes of an emotionally unstable fanbase. Forgive the fans, however, for their frenetic nature, which was passed on to them, by many generations of defensive ineptitude, at just the wrong moments. Any new scheme will have a learning curve, Spags’ was no different. Chiefs defense began the year, much like they ended the last. They were awful against the run, adequate against the pass, and entirely too flexible in their ‘bend but don’t break’ strategy. All of that, finally, began to shift against the Denver Broncos. A blitz heavy strategy, in addition to the use of LB Reggie Ragland, on obvious run downs, transformed the defense.

Even with multiple injuries, Chiefs’ defenders were able to take the lessons learned, from that blitz-heavy game plan, and apply them, against a Vikings team that Chiefs couldn’t afford to blitz. It is hard to believe that the same team, who was ranked 30th in run defense to start the season, held Dalvin Cook to just 71 yards rushing. This defense has gone from bad, to acceptable, to average and they’re trending in the direction of something fans haven’t seen in years, a top 10 defense.

Sunday represents an opportunity to pad the stat sheet, against a bad Titans offense. It’s also another test of the run defense, which struggled, early, with power. With the return of Mahomes, it’ll be interesting to see what the mentality of the defense is:

Will they be more aggressive, knowing they don’t have to carry the offense,

Or,

Will they become more passive, knowing Mahomes can bail them out?

A lot of ground has been gained, but it still must be maintained. With a near full complement of players, plus guys grasping, and buying into, the scheme, we’ll soon know what to expect from Spagnuolo, going forward. So far, he’s looking like a great hire.

Phase 3: Special Teams

Every offseason Dave Toub puts his stamp on the roster. 2019 was no exception. Tremon Smith, DeAnthony Thomas and Dorian O’Daniel all made the roster as guys who, pretty much exclusively contribute on Special Teams. The results, however, were less than spectacular. Smith, a talented returner, was relegated to gunner duty. His replacement, De’Anthony Thomas, only yielded 4.2 yards per punt and 22.1 yards per kick return, notably less than the 25 yards teams get, on a touchback. Hardman struggled, all offseason, with ball security, and it continues to be an issue. This is peculiar, as he doesn’t seem to have any such issues on offense… just on returns. Fans have been so accustomed to Toub’s excellence that they seldom pause to consider his current position. Injuries not withstanding, Chiefs STs return units are not good right now.

While Chiefs rank an impressive 8th in Special Teams Efficiency (by DVOA), not all is well. Chiefs are ranked 31st in kick return efficiency. Early in the season, they shot themselves in the foot by returning kicks that could’ve easily gone for touchbacks, yielding better field position. Right now, teams are so aware of Chiefs struggles, they are deliberately kicking outside the endzone to force returns. Toub is a great coach in most aspects, but Chiefs can’t afford to have their STs be apocalyptically bad, in any area. Whenever possible, Chiefs need to get with the times, and just take the ball at the 25.

With the departure of DAT, and Smith, Chiefs have forced themselves into using Hardman. While he has game-breaking speed, he needs to curb his tendency to put the ball on the ground. Aggression is great on offense and defense, not on Special Teams. Chiefs are two good, on offense and defense, to take low percentage gambles on returns. Toub needs to stop looking for the big play and just find a reliable returner who won’t make mistakes. He’s a good coach and has plenty of time to get things right, but if he hasn’t by the playoffs, Andy Reid needs to step in. The reckless risk-taking that Chiefs have done on STs, can cost you close games. If that happens in the playoffs, Chiefs may need to consider firing Toub.

Three Phases: Conclusion

Much of the story remains to be told. Nick Wright thinks the future for Kansas City, holds victory after victory without the possibility of defeat. Some fatalistic fans still believe that the big win will elude the Chiefs, with Reid at the helm. Personally, I think a lot of it will come down to Chiefs getting healthy and staying that way. In the end, the details matter. If the special teams aren’t fixed by January, it will cost the Chiefs dearly… all other factors aside, if Mahomes is well and truly back, the league should be absolutely terrified, because this defense is just hitting its stride. Look around and you won’t find a more complete team in all three phases than Kansas City. That’s a great place to be.

Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne

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