’Tis the Season of NFL Hyperbole
· by Paul Pulley
What if Patrick Mahomes II goes off?
Kansas City Chiefs General Manager Brett Veach and company have assembled a roster on the offensive side of the ball, the likes that hasn’t been seen very often in the NFL. The biggest question mark is without a doubt, quarterback Patrick Mahomes II. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is not only extra fast, but has great ball skills as well. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins has good speed and at least one of the best hands in the game (probably both hands are good but he seems to use just one many times). Tight end Travis Kelce is an elite player at his position and is a nightmare for the opposition. Running back Kareem Hunt burst onto the scene last year, surprising the world by leading the league in rushing yards, as well as being an excellent receiver out of the backfield.
I’ve been trying to rack my brain (and believe me, that is an exercise in futility) to think of some type of decent comparison, historically, for this combination of skill players that the Kansas City Chiefs has assembled on offense to assist Mahomes. I’m sure some of you with good memories will point out plenty that I have missed, but I don’t intend for this to be all inclusive.
A number of people want to compare Mahomes to Brett Favre, but I don’t really like that comparison, as I think PMII is a lot better than Favre was early in his career. As a rookie in Atlanta, Favre took five snaps, threw four passes, completed none with two interceptions and was sacked once. He did play a little better in his first outing as a Green Bay Packer, but not by much. Favre did finish his sophomore season pretty well, but it really wasn’t until Favre’s fourth season that he really took off.
The 1995 season was one of Favre’s best, but he still didn’t have the weapons around him that the Chiefs have assembled for Mahomes. Favre passed for over 4,400 yards in ’95 and Edgar Bennett rushed for 1,067 yards. Bennett also caught 61 passes for 648 yards. The Packers top wide receiver was Robert Brooks, who caught 102 passes for 1,497 yards. The second best WR was Mark Ingram, who caught 39 passes for 469 yards. Favre’s primary tight end was Mark Chmura, who caught 54 passes for 679 yards.
Another strong armed QB is Big Ben, but Roethlisberger didn’t pass for more than 3,000 yards until his third year in the league and didn’t top 4,000 until 2009, his sixth year. In 2009 Roethlisberger passed for 4,328 yards. The Steelers primary running back was Rashard Mendenhall, who rushed for 1,108 yards and caught just 25 passes for 261 yards. Ben did have two good receivers in Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, catching 79 passes for 1,248 yards and 95 passes for 1,167 yards, respectively. Heath Miller was the Steelers best TE catching 76 passes for 789 yards. 2009 was Holmes fourth year in the League and by far the best year of his career. Ward had a number of productive years, but 2009 was his twelfth year in the NFL and his production dropped off a cliff following that season.
Another comparison could be the 2008 Green Bay Packers. After sitting behind Favre for three years, Aaron Rodgers was given the role of starting QB and promptly threw for 4,038 yards in his first year as a starter. Ryan Grant rushed for 1,203 yards but only had 18 receptions for 116 more yards. The Packers two main receivers that year were Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Jennings had 80 receptions for 1,292 yards, while Driver caught 74 passes for 1,012 yards. Rodgers top TE was Donald Lee, who had 39 receptions for 303 yards. Driver had a good career as a receiver, but again, this was his tenth year in the league and after one more good year in 2009, his production dive bombed for his final three years. 2008 was Jennings third year and was statistically the best of his career.
The closest comp in the modern era might be the 2012 Atlanta Falcons. This was Matt Ryan’s fifth year as a pro and he finished the season passing for 4,719 yards. RB Michael Turner rushed for 800 yards and added 128 yards on 19 receptions. RB Jaquizz Rodgers added 362 yards on the ground, but another 402 yards in receptions. The Falcons receiving corp was top notch, led by Roddy White who caught 92 passes for 1,351 yards. This was Julio Jones second season and he had 79 receptions for 1,198 yards. Of course Ryan’s TE was Tony Gonzalez who ended up with 93 catches for 930 yards. 2012 was White’s eighth year in the league and the last year of his career that he topped 1,000 yards. The best TE to ever play the game, Tony G, was in his sixteenth and next to final year of his illustrious career.
We could also look at the 2011 Detroit Lions, which was Matthew Stafford’s third year as the Lions QB. Stafford passed for 5,038 yards that season, but Detroit didn’t have much of a running game and Calvin Johnson was far and away the best receiver on the team.
There are, of course, other strong armed QB’s that have played in NFL. We could go back to Steve Bartkowski, we could look at Jeff George or even John Elway, etc., etc. However, none of those quarterbacks had a supporting cast similar to what the 2018 Chiefs have assembled.
The closest comparison might actually involve a lengthy trip down memory lane. All the way back to the 1984 Miami Dolphins. 1984 was Dan Marino’s second season in the NFL and he finished the year with 5,084 passing yards. The ’84 Dolphins had more of a running back by committee, with FB Woody Bennett rushing for 606 yards and Joe Carter rushed for 495 yards. The third RB, Tony Nathan carried the ball for 558 yards, but also added another 579 yards through the air. 1984 was Bennett and Nathan’s sixth year in the NFL but was Carter’s rookie season.
As I was living in south Florida in the mid ‘80s, when it came to football, there was no other topic of conversation. A second year QB with two young wide receivers who put up fantastic numbers, dubbed the Marks brothers, Mark Duper and Mark Clayton. 1984 was Duper’s third year in the league and Clayton’s second. Clayton finished the year with 73 catches for 1,389 yards and Duper had 71 receptions for 1,306 yards. Marino and the Dolphins didn’t have much for a receiving TE, as the number one TE was Dan Johnson (also his second year), who ended up with 426 receiving yards. With the three running backs combining for 1,659 rushing yards, the TE wasn’t really a receiving threat back in those times.
I realize the game has changed dramatically since the 1980’s or even since Favre played in 1995. Heck folks, with these new tackling rules in place, the 2018 game may change drastically from 2017.
250 Yards Per Game
That’s it. The math is simple. 16 games in a season, a quarterback only has to average 250 yards per game to top 4,000 for the season. Good quarterbacks do this routinely. Aaron Rodgers has topped 4,000 yards six times (in a season) in his career, Philip Rivers has done it nine times and Drew Brees has topped 4,000 yards twelve consecutive years and counting.
The question now becomes, can Patrick Mahomes II pass for at least 4,000 yards in 2018? I am going to say yes, and he will do it with ease. In week 17 against the Denver Broncos, Mahomes passed for 284 yards. I know, I know, a lot of you are going to say Denver didn’t play their best players all game. Well, ladies and gentlemen, neither did the Chiefs. Mahomes “aweful-sive” line had three reserves, his primary running back was our FB who set all kinds of career records that day. His primary receivers were, Albert “Who got a great deal from Miami thanks to 2:PM” Wilson; then there’s the almost unstoppable, assuming he catches the ball, Demetrius Harris; and there was also, DeMarcus “I catch almost half of my targets” Robinson.
What will PMII do with a verifiably top notch supporting cast. That is the $64,000 question.
How good can Tyreek Hill be. Going back to the comparison of the 2012 Falcons, can Hill be as good as Roddy White. White had good speed, but not Hill speed. They both track the ball well, but White would win a contest of route running skills.
Kareem Hunt, in my opinion, is better than either Michael Turner or Jaquizz Rodgers. Maybe better than both combined.
I really hate to compare TonyG to anyone. I’ll probably go to my grave saying Gonzalez is the best TE to ever play the game, but Kelce is a lot younger than Tony G was then and Kelce definitely has the receiving skills.
Now, is Sammy Watkins as good as Julio Jones? Comparing what the Falcons gave up to draft Jones and what the Bills gave to draft Watkins, they should compare favorably.
Jones first five years stats are:
- 2011, 13 games, 54 rec., 959 yards and 8 TDs
- 2012, 16 games, 79 rec., 1,198 yards and 10 TDs
- 2013, 05 games, 41 rec., 580 yards and 2 TDs
- 2014, 15games, 104 rec., 1,593 yards and 6 TDs
- 2015, 16 games, 136 rec., 1,871 yards and 8 TDs
Sammy Watkins stats are:
- 2014, 16 games, 65 rec., 982 yards and 6 TDs
- 2015, 13 games, 60 rec., 1,047 yards and 9 TDs
- 2016, 08 games, 28 rec., 430 yards and 2 TDs
- 2017, 15 games, 39 rec., 593 yards and 8 TDs
- 2018, ? ? ? ?
As you can see, the first three years of their careers are pretty comparable. With both players suffering injuries in their third year. The huge difference is their fourth year. Jones had the huge advantage of playing on one team, with a very good quarterback his entire career to this point. Watkins on the other hand, has had E J Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and Jared Goff as his QBs. Not exactly a fair comparison, Goff may turn out to be a good QB but the 2017 Goff was no where near the 2012 Matt Ryan.
1,000 Yards per Season
Again, the math is simple. 62.5 yards per game average for 16 games. That is what it takes to finish with 1,000 yards.
- Hill topped that average in 10 games last year, four times he bettered that with one catch.
- Kelce topped the 62.5 yard barrier 7 times last year, but he still managed to finish the season over 1000.
- Watkins only topped the 62.5 yard mark 3 times in 2017. I’ll bet he is glad to be on a team where he isn’t the forgotten man.
- I’m not sure if Kareem Hunt can average 62.5 yards rushing or not. Last year it seemed a lot of his yards came late in games with some long runs. However, if the passing game really goes wild, it could spread the opponents defense and really open up some running lanes.
The 2018 Chiefs Statistically on Offense
How good will the Chiefs be this season? Who the heck knows. If all the key players stay healthy, I think they can be top of the league good. Will 2:PM throw for 5,000 yards? I doubt it, but I do think 4,400 is doable. Can the Chiefs set a NFL record with a 1,000 yard rusher, a 1,000 yard receiving TE and two 1,000 yard wide receivers? The weakest link here could be the rushing game. Will Reid abandon the rush as he has done so many times in the past.
How far can all of this take the team? The crazy thing is, of all the examples I listed above, the 1984 Dolphins are the only team to make it to the Super Bowl, and they lost. The 2008 Packers and the 2009 Steelers didn’t even make the playoffs. Can 2:PM throw for 32 touchdowns? That is an average of two per game. I doubt he does that in his first year as a starter, but down the road I believe it will be commonplace.
In conclusion, I believe the Chiefs are building an offense that will be very, very good for several years to come. Not only do we have the starting players I have mentioned above, but we have several key reserves. Such as Chris Conley, Spencer Ware and the Williams’ Family of running backs (whichever end up making the team this fall). Hopefully Jace Amaro, or one other tight end will rise to the top to take over the 2nd TE position.
What do you think are the “outer limits” for this offense?
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