David Bell Kansas City Chiefs

Turning the Chiefs Inside Out, Forging the Guts and the Glory

David Bell January 27, 2019 No Comments

 

 

 

 

Turning the Chiefs Inside Out,

Forging the Guts and the Glory

 

by David Bell | January 27, 2019

 

Defense and performance of the players made me quite ill in 2018, especially in the 2019 AFL Championship game. There were two pretty good games during the 2018 season: one game where the defense played well for a half and an overall game versus the Colts which I rate as a quality effort in the Playoffs. The rest of the the 2018 campaign could be summed up by two words: “Awesomely Awful,” and it turned my guts inside out. This enduring awfulness is the appropriate descriptor of the defense effort in the game versus the Patriots as well.

Indeed, I think the Chiefs complete roster and its performance had a poor outing altogether in the AFL Championship game and the responsibility for this lies in the hands of HC Andy Reid. How can Reid change his, and the team’s playoffs fortunes? Turning the Chiefs upside down, forging the guts and the glory.

 

2019 Offseason Moves Taken to Date

Many of us at ArrowheadOne had determined that no matter what, Bob Sutton had to be fired after the season. After the disastrous playoff loss to the Patriots, Mr. Sutton was fired. Firing Bob Sutton was the first important move of the 2019 season.

 

The second move made was Standard Fare: Brett Veach signed 9 players to reserve/future contracts as reported on January 24th: OT Ryan Hunter, TE David Wells, OT Pace Murphy, LB Robert McCray, LB Raymond Davison, DB D’Montre Wade, DT Joey Ivie, QB Chase Litton and WR Josh Crockett.

 

None of these players who were tendered reserve/future contracts are “foreign” to the Chiefs. They may or may not be part of the 63 man roster come opening day 2019. I don’t think there are any gems in this group but one or more might play a role on the 53 man roster.

 

 

 

 

 

The purpose here, is to examine what must happen to alter the course of the roster in a positive direction, one in which problems of quality starters is resolved, one where the defense improves drastically in 2019. [This last comment is where we needed to improve a bunch in 2018 and didn’t. Firing Sutton was a fiery first step in the forging process.]

 

 

Next Right Step, Replacing DC Bob Sutton

I have a view of things in regard to a new DC. What is likely to occur is internal interviews with Andy Reid’s son Britt and OLB Coach Mike Smith would be in that mix. Outside? The first name mentioned was Steve Spagnuolo with Andy had coached at Philly as well as Rex Ryan, who was very good DC in his assignment as well as a HC. Other names have been tossed around, Chris Hewitt of the Ravens, and so on.

 

[As I write this article, Steve Spagnuolo was hired as the new Defensive Coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs! Mike Smith is gone and Britt Reid is hanging in the wind.]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inside Out: Gaining the Walsh Edge

Bill, not Joe. The Chiefs success in the NFL for the past 6 seasons is recognizable and commendable but also it is infuriating because the team has not been able to get back to the biggest contest in the game: the Super Bowl. 2018’s team came close but failed and 2019 marks the 50th Anniversary since the Chiefs have been in that game.

 

There is no “Science of Talent Evaluation and Constructing A Successful Roster” in terms of how to build a team which can get to and win the Super Bowl. However, this regime’s success can be judged by division titles (3 in a row), playoff appearances (2 wins, 5 losses). Something is going right but… the loss to the Patriots and poor performances on both sides of the ball are more than maddening. GM Brett Veach will lead the offseason effort in the task of acquiring the necessary talent to build the roster to the next level of success. That is the Rub. Why? Because there is no “Science of Talent Evaluation and Constructing A Successful Roster” for winning the Super Bowl.

 

A myriad of tools are used to predict performance on a football field at the pro level. Millions of dollars are spent on this task each season but nothing is certain of how well this task is performed until the players selected hit the turf and play the game. A study was done last season on the average success of team drafts every season and at best it comes out to demonstrate that about ½ of the Top Draft Picks were “Wrong” choices.

 

I mentioned the other day that Bill Walsh who was successful as a HC/GM type over several seasons approached fielding a successful offense in big games by reducing complexities. He was also known for his approach to the draft which was highly unscientific but his approach was not to draft the perfect player. Walsh was determined to select players who would create the “difference” or the “edge” he could bring into the 49’ers environment. He was wont to delve into player character and used background checks, built his draft board based on minimizing risk and improving the odds that players would succeed using this mechanism.

 

Part of building a good roster is also determining: when to fish or cut bait. This is huge problem with the Chiefs and players who represent a problem with regards to Age/Cost/Performance Values. Assessing talent is something which each team builds as a tool and this can be used to establish a list of players who should be on the acquisition list.

 

In the past, John Dorsey was stout in his expressing the idea of drafting the BPA (Best PLayer Available). However, we know this is not true as a science. It was based on his willingness to choose a player with a high upside but who might be high risk at the same time. Mike Mayock, one of the best at evaluating talent, is now the Las Vegas Raiders GM. His problem is going to be to shift his talent in evaluating talent as it focuses on each round and constructing a team’s draft based on need and player ability to succeed from the “Inside Out.” In other words, team need must be part of the valuation process: a task which shifts precedence from the “round” to the player’s fit and ability to succeed at their position.

 

Innovation: The Inside Out/BPA Method

The Inside Out/BPA Method still uses talent evaluation and building a draft board based on the potential of each player, top to bottom based on that rating but, it also must include the character/mind-set/background of the player, his “place” with the Chiefs persona and how he will fit the puzzle. These new players must also be considered as to how they well they can replace the players on the roster who do not live up to the task they are assigned. They will be players who have the “Will” to succeed where other players are lacking. These new Chiefs would bring that “Edge.”

 

Drafting a top player at the wrong time can be a crucial error in judgement. Worrying that a player is the Top Player when a pick is to be made can be an error also.

 

This makes for applying an inexact science to an inexact process then doesn’t it? It involves judgement calls, no matter what but is needed to turn the Chiefs upside down, forging the guts and the glory. 

 

David Bell — ArrowheadOne