I Am In
I start with a logical projection that the Chiefs don’t need 12 Draft picks. Yes, I am familiar with the Statement by Brett Veach that Mahomes indicated that Veach should keep all twelve and that matched what Clark Hunt also apparently had said. So using multiple picks to move up in the draft is using the draft picks.
Draft simulators are make-believe, but I am giving it one more shot two days before the draft. Round 1, Trade Up – Chiefs trade Pick 29, Pick 50, and a 2023 round-three draft pick. The trade is made with the presumption that they must get into the teens to accomplish what they want. It may well have been that Williams would have gone after pick 20. For that matter, Chris Olave might have been the target.
Who do they get?
Jameson Williams(WR, Alabama)
The way I see it, Jameson is an explosive WR with top-end speed and “Juice.” I have not been able to get away from this potential trade-up. I hope that due to the 2021 injury, it will be more in the range of Pick 20. I took the worst-case scenario and used draft capital to ensure that Williams is a “Chiefs” in 2022. Hands down, this remains my first consideration even though Chris Olave has a ton of talent and is probably the best route runner of the 2022 draft. However: Athleticism and Aggressive Playmaking trump that. I want the player that is going to explode with play-making. Jameson is that for me.
I see this: There is no doubt in my mind that Jameson Williams will be a break-out WR in 2022. He is ahead of the timetable for his rehab, as has been reported by various sources. His Skill Set is a total match for the Chiefs and his rock chucker, Patrick Mahomes. WR is the only offensive side-of-the-ball draft pick that I regard as a must. Jameson is a home run in this regard from everything I can glean from the many varied sources to whom I might give credit.
Basic Metrics:
- Height: 6’1 1/2″
- Weight: 180 pound
- Wingspan: 75 7/8
- Length: 32 1/8″
- Hand: 9 1/4″
The Credos:
Williams is highly efficient. He gets separation with acceleration out of the gate. He is dangerous when the offensive plays are schemed to break him loose. Williams has proven to have a powerful YAC ability. He has elusive lateral agility and is a RAC threat with fluid hips, allowing easy transition to change of direction. His height fits the new genre of hybrid WRs for the Chiefs, standing at 6’1 1/2″. His body type can add more muscle bulk. Williams breaks tackles and can fend off arm tackles. My Bottom Line is: Williams is abrupt, twitchy, and fast with strength and height, with which he can make contested catches.
What are the Detractions: The ACL Injury in 2021. As noted, the word is his recovery and rehab is ahead of schedule. You will have to add whatever detractions you can find. What I think can happen is that Jameson lasts beyond pick 20. Then Brett Veach must consider a trade-up.
Making the first Round One pick brings me to Pick 30. I know. All of the Chief’s boosters believe that Defense must be the highest priority for the draft. But Williams is a once-in-a-generation talent.
Sidenote: I ran a mock after this one, and of course, things shifted. I stood pat and was able to draft Jordan Davis with pick #29 and WR Chris Olave with pick #30. Go figure. I want to emphasize that this particular mock was drawn up with the worst possible scenario of using two major picks to trade up to select Williams.
The Round 1, Pick 30 Selection: Dax Hill(CB, Michigan)
I was trying to see how Brett Veach & Co. would view the talent available when we get to this point. My decision is based on the fact that the DE and DT talent has been swept from the round-one board for those two positions.
I turn to time and again to who is left on the 16 or so players on the Chief’s Big Board and arrive at Dax Hill, CB(Michigan). If you have been following what I have written in the recent past, then you know that I genuinely wished that the Chiefs would be able to select one of two DTs: Davis and Wyatt. In this mock, they are both gone. As far as the top DEs? They also have been taken off the board. It is my view that the potential CBs, and Safeties as the most likely choices. Dax Hill stands out – he is an aggressive, physically extremely gifted, athletic talent for the secondary.
Even after trading up for Jameson Williams, the Chiefs managed to keep a second first-round pick. Since the mock saw both DTs and DEs pass beyond our reach, Hill’s elite athleticism stands out — and he can play both safety and CB and has proved that in his NCAA career. Possessing 32″+ arm length is an advantage as well. More than that, his athletic prowess translates into playmaking explosiveness.
Hill Metrics:
- Height: 6’0 1/4″
- Weight: 191 pounds
- Wingspan: 79 1/4″
- Length: 32 1/4″
- Hand: 9 1/2″
Hill’s Combine/Pro Day results:
- 40-Yard Dash: 4.38
- Broad Jump: 10′ 2″
- Vertical Jump: 37″
- Three-Cone: 6.57
- Short Shuttle: 4.06
The evaluation of Hill by Pro Analysts: “Hill’s athletic numbers hint at otherworldly dynamism, and he lives up to that on tape. When Hill plays at full speed, his closing to the interception point is difficult to match. Expectedly, the Michigan product has elite explosiveness and pursuit speed. These qualities combine into an impressive range, both downfield and side to side.”
Beyond that? Hill can also play Cornerback.
If that hasn’t sold you that Hill is a valid round-one selection, nothing will. I am not saying he doesn’t have defects: Play recognition and anticipation need development. He is still young, at age 21 this season. With coaching that the Chiefs boast, I think Hill folds into the secondary immediately. For me, Hill is the right choice with Pick 30. Hill is another draft pick that will be an immediate starter for the Chiefs in 2022. Not only that, but he also fits the Spagnuola formula for versatility. There is no doubt that Dax Hill would be a superb draft selection in 2022.
That is Round-One Complete. Let’s take a look at Round Two.
The unfortunate part of this mock is that I used Pick #50 for the Williams Trade. So now we arrive at pick #62 in round two. Again, I was torn between selecting a DE or DT. In this case, I chose Martin Emerson, CB – Mississippi. Boye Mafe was selected in front of pick 62, and he was my choice DE to target in the draft. I do have another. Emerson was among the later players listed on my board. The higher valued players were selected before this pick. You could say that a CB run in rounds 1 and 2 took the targets – a cost of trading up to draft Jameson Williams.
Round 2, pick 62 – Martin Emerson, CB-Mississippi St.
Indeed, I wanted to double-dip for the secondary, DE, and WR and get a 3-down pass rush DT. But, as the mock unfolded, my target DEs were already drafted. Still, I have players for all three positions on the Chief’s board. But Emerson brings a needed talent to the CB group. Coupled with the Dax Hill selection, I felt that Emerson’s attributes would be an immediate advantage to the Chiefs, who will face a well-armed AFC West in 2022. Running the subsequent trial Mock After, I still had a shot at drafting a more highly rated CB.
Emerson’s Metrics explain my reasoning. He has height, aggressiveness, long arms, and tenacity of play that fits the Chief’s defense. Emerson is 6’2″, 200 lbs of aggressiveness. He will be 22 years old in 2022. Other choices were possible for higher-rated players, but that would have precluded selecting Jameson Williams. I like Emerson’s aggressive, dynamic style of play. At 6’2″, he adds height which is an advantage, especially when you consider the WRs and TEs that the Chiefs will face.
At the same time, I believe that Emerson will emerge quickly as an impact player who will vie for a starter type number of snaps early in the upcoming season. Emerson is a solid defender against the run. Play recognition will be a component of his learning curve. Martin’s arm Length is 33 1/3″, and his hand span is 10 1/8″. Emerson will fit well with the Chief’s mix of CBs for the outside role.
The only questions I have about his potential are how quickly he adjusts to NFL Game Speed and how well he takes coaching. I see historically that the Chiefs have lacked that outside defender with a length that was an advantage five years ago(Ron Parker). Emerson is an aggressive player with good speed and height. He is a good fit for the Chief’s secondary.
Metrics and Evaluation?
- Very good size and length.
- Patient but ready feet for press match.
- Uncoils relatively stiff punch to slow the release.
- Properly balanced between combination routes from zone.
- Closes and crowds when the route tracks deep.
- Quick to read and trigger when release kicks in.
- Easily opens hips and swings into transition.
- Punt and kick cover talent
Weaknesses:
- Too content to bat it away instead of taking it away.
- Doesn’t aggressively advance into passing lanes.
- Not a Ball Hawk.
- Below average at tracking and playing the ball.
- Not very competitive taking on blocks..
As far as the weaknesses are concerned, I see those as coaching staff opportunities. I like Emerson’s height and arm length. So it’s going to be a wait-and-see in that regard. In truth, I like Emerson’s fit for the secondary. You will have to put that in a pipe and light it up.
Round 3, Pick 94 – Cam Thomas, DE, SDSU
Oddly enough, Cam Thomas falls to the Chiefs with this draft pick. Advantage Chiefs. So far in this draft, DE has been a delay and gamble point. However, as a fit for the Chiefs, I think Thomas is a great match. I have made the point that Brett Veach would re-sign Melvin Ingram. I still hope that is going to be the case. That Thomas falls to this point in round three is a boon to this draft. At the same time, I am observing that my belief that a DT needs to be drafted remains an unfulfilled ideal. The DT role is resolved with Pick 103, surprisingly. But let’s deal with Cameron Thomas First.
I do not understand why Thomas fell to this point in the draft. He fits the Chief’s need for a physical pass-rush threat. It is ” Advantage Chiefs ” to solve this exposure with this high-quality selection: this late in the draft. It’s probably an unreasonable pick, but that’s how it fell.
Round 3, Pick 104 – Thomas Booker, DT, Stanford
Booker fits the pass-rush need for an IDL. The other DTs I had targeted were all drafted and off the board. Booker has the size and tools for the pass-rush. I think he could platoon early, mixing in with Derrick Nnadi, and Tershawn Wharton. Hopefully, his development with the Chief’s coaching staff will help accelerate him to being a contributor early.
Round Four Onward?
Anyone the Chiefs select in round four bolsters position groups from this point onward.
It might be a second WR or an RB, a second DE, an LB, or an OT. Any two of three will aid the Chief’s depth. Hopefully, Brett Veach finds the gem with these two draft picks. For example, if Austin Williams III is available, he would be a change-up for the WR group. An OT would benefit the OL, and an LB, should the right player be known, would help the LB Group — especially if he could play outside with speed and pass-coverage skills.
Round 7 picks?
If I were Brett Veach, I would use them interspersed with the picks above or trade them to move up in the draft, especially trying to get into round 5 but, at the least, to move up into round six, at least. Indeed the Jets would consider this as they are in rebuild mode.
After I ran this particular Mock, I did another 3 round test(with no trades). The results are below:
Again, Go Figure. In this one, I am weak in finding CBs. I have now sworn off Mock Drafts Forever(until 2023 anyway)
David Bell – ArrowheadOne