What an exciting off-season 2022 has become. We did not expect the Tyreek Hill Trade, and it was not the only jaw-dropping trade but it was a huge surprise. Thanks to all for visiting hot take central!!
Maybe toss one back down at the Corner Pub and proffer a toast to this real, crazy off-season so far.
As the off-season drama continues, the more I believe we are experiencing the “new typical The NFL off-season”. It is starting to look more like the MLB or NBA offseasons. Stars move, Another team goes for it, dynamics change, franchise cornerstones bail, contracts increase. Players manage their health and their career as they see fit. But so do the teams. I try to keep this in my head: football is a game, but NFL player is a career and the Team is a business.
Let’s Talk Work
My jobs are marketing/sales, and business owner. Did I grow up dreaming of these jobs? No, not really. I was more interested in being a pro basketball player and/or rock star. The issues that I needed to overcome include being 6’1″, small vertical, slow first step, bad off-hand dribbling hand, a less than a refined ear for exact pitch, and merely better than average singing voice. In short, I am not exceptionally talented in the music and athletic fields. My talents are pragmatic business acumen, above-average data evaluation, and grinder mentality. It is less glamorous and pays less, but it affords a beautiful life. An old saying is: work to live, don’t live to work. I love working and accomplishing things, but I love living more. Work-life balance is essential, and I seek it; Business organizations evolve, grow, regress, change, and stuff.
A good job fit today does not guarantee and good fit tomorrow, let alone a couple of years from now. Why (besides my on-brand rambling) do I bring this up? Work is a fact of life. We all have a choice about where we do it. I am a job hopper. My current day job position just turned four–this is the longest I have been continuously employed at the same job with the same organization. I have spent more time with companies, but the job/tasks change. Patience is not my virtue, and I am not working on it. I work hard, play hard, and look for new opportunities when the arrangement is not what I want. My loyalty and work ethic is firm until it isn’t. Translation: I will work my tail off as long as I am at my job, and that means through the last day.
Tyreek Hill
There, I said his name. I bring this up all the prior stuff to reiterate that Tyreek Hill changed jobs. More than once I have taken a call from a recruiter, and coyly said that I am open to the right new opportunity, and bounced for something new. I have abandoned distinct rights to win for theoretical emerging markets for better working environments. The other thing driving every decision is higher pay. We have reached my destination for this column.
Tyreek Hill left a job for a higher paying job. Right off the bat consider that his new contract has a $52M guarantee. Wow. He decided a bigger paycheck is better than a clearer path to winning.
Many fans are mad, bitter, hurt, and I understand where they are coming from. I would be a hypocrite to not understand Tyreek’s decision. Tyreek secured a raise, and another company offered him obnoxious money. Good for him for taking it. Also, it’s good for Brett Veach for not matching the Dolphin’s offer. Hill walked into Veach’s office, gave notice, and asked for respect for his decision. Veach declined to counter, shook his hand, and wished him well.
This is how adults do business, and I applaud them both. My sincerest thanks to Cheetah and Brett Veach for recognizing elite talent and taking the high road. I look forward to Hill’s Ring of Honor ceremony.
Future Projections
Tyreek Hill will be in the CHIEF’s Ring of Honor and rightly so. That will be an awesome day. The unfortunate thing is he could have been a retired jersey, but that bus just left the station. Only ten players have retired numbers for the CHIEFS, and Hill was on track to be part of 11-13 with Mahomes and Kelce. I am happy for Tyreek getting his money, but I am sad this scenario is out the window at the same time. To use an altered George Washington-ish quote from Alexander Hamilton: “Being great at football and putting up stats is easy. Becoming a legend is harder.”
Hill has the tools and the talent but did not want the grind. He wanted the money. His future generations thank him, and his story is still awesome. However, I see the end of the road of excellence as demonstrated by what the Stats have been and are likely to be with the Dolphins.
My CHIEFScast video series is back up and running. We discussed this trade in-depth, and I made an analogy. All people live on budgets and make choices. Picture a city and its variety of neighborhoods. Think about the poshest suburb and owning a mansion. The mansion is over the top, and you and your neighbors have the Curb appearance that people drive by and ogle. I suppose envy is part of the reason people do this. Now picture the top-notch suburb just below where you have one of the biggest houses on the best block. You spend the same amount of money in both places. The difference is you eat ramen noodles in the mansion, and eat steak in the big house. It is the difference between looking and living the part.
Now change the house to the paycheck and the meal to what the QB feeds you. Tyreek Hill just picked the mansion ($30M/year) and ramen noodles (catching balls from Tua). No shade. Just truth.
Where Are We Going
The CHIEFS will be fine. Brett Veach did not counter what was offered by the Dolphins because he believes in his team culture the fact that no one is bigger than the team. The CHIEFS had no business having Hill’s new contract on their books so they did not put it there. I made my point clear regarding Miami’s spending in my last column. Here is my list of projections for Tyreek’s remaining career:
- 1 more Pro Bowl appearance
- 1-3 more seasons with ambition (this may mean playoff hopes with Miami or as a part of a contender and as a journeyman after)
- 1-2 seasons with 1,000 yds
Hill’s stat collecting days are over. Tyreek decided to chase the money over the stats and the rings, and that is what I see him getting. We are looking at a combination of two situations.
Le’Veon Bell
Bell was 1/3 of the Killer B Steeler trio and struck fear into the hearts of men. He also became the highest-paid weapon, not RB, in the league. That happened on the “hapless” (also discussed in my last column) Jets. In three short years, Bell went from almost 2K yards to sitting out to just over 1K yards. The decline was sharp, fast, and not fun to watch. Le’Veon went from late prime/early decline Ben with WR Antonio Brown in his prime to whatever the Jets were fielding. Tyreek Hill is leaving Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce for whatever the Dolphins are doing.
New York Giants
Last year the Giants decided to double down on the Daniel Jones situation. The decision to keep him at starting QB required a weapon upgrade. Acquiring WR Kenny Golladay, at 4 years $72M was the free agent move of the offseason. The pairing of Golladay with Sterling Shepherd as well as having the return of Saquon Barkley was to have provided the Giants with multiple offensive weapons. It wasn’t enough. With that offering was worth a two-win season over the 2021 campaign for the Giants. The Dolphins are going all-in for 2022 (translated: There is no excuse to be offered for Tua underperforming with Hill as a target nor for having a paired set of targets of Ty Hill and Jaylon Waddle). Down in Miami, This topic has already hit the front of the Herald’s Sports page.
On to 2022
The CHIEFS will be fine. Veach will draft and has already signed Marquez Valdez-Scantling(MVS) and brought aboard JuJu Smith-Schuster(envision JSS in the slot–a #2 possession type WR). It’s a tough schedule already. But they are still the Chiefs. They play football at Arrowhead Stadium. But now the field is called GEHA Field. Oh well, things change. In 2022 they might even don a throwback helmet, acknowledging their Lamar Hunt and Dallas Origins. That would be fun for a game.
Miami will miss the playoffs with a list of parts and a lesser sum. Tyreek Hill will live well and regress on the field.
That’s my take until proven otherwise. I feel confident the Internet will let me know if I get this wrong.
Josh Kingsley – ArrowheadOne