WR Tyreek Hill: The Chiefs New El Numero Uno

There’s a new top dawg in town when it comes the Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers and that would be none other than Tyreek Hill. It should surprise no one, in retrospect, that the Chiefs cut ties with their previous #1WR Jeremy Maclin, when you consider the moves the team made prior to releasing Maclin.

Before I share with you why I think Tyreek Hill makes all the sense in the world to become the Chiefs new leader of the pack amoung the wideouts, let’s take a look at some of the offseason moves JARD — John-Andy-Reid-Dorsey — have made and fan’s unwitting reaction to each of those roster maneuvers at the time:

1. When Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis were released and C.J. Spiller was signed… it was originally thought it was a move that could be an upgrade at both kickoff returner and giving Spiller some of JC’s carries out of the backfield.

2. When Jehu Chesson was drafted… it was it was originally thought that it was a move that could provide Dave Toub another special teamer and Chesson could eventually become a possession wide receiver… down the line.

3. When Jeremy Maclin was cut… it was originally thought that it was a move that would free up some cash but leaves the Cheifs with no one to take over at the #1WR position.

Looking — and listening — back, we can now see that the move to release Jeremy Maclin was probably in the works since February 1st. There were clues that this is the case. Andy Reid came out early in the offseason and said, “We want to get Tyreek Hill more touches.” That seemed reasonable considering what a dynamic player he’d become in his first season in the league. My buddy over at ArrowheadAddict, Lyle Graversen, wrote a piece called, “Are the Kansas City Chiefs Set at Wide Receiver?” in which he stated,

“… if Kansas City spends a mid round pick on a receiver that just competes for a spot in the rotation that rookie’s totals are pretty much going to have to subtract from players we currently have on the roster and we’re already capping Maclin at 60 receptions and estimating 18 more receptions than Reid’s offenses typically average. I DON’T want the number of receptions for Kelce or Hill to drop at all. Those two are the best weapons on the roster and taking the ball out of their hands would be a mistake.”

While it’s easy for the casual fan to sit back and believe that if the head coach says he wants to get more touches for a specific WR, he’ll just magically do that. The reality is, someone has to lose touches for that to happen. You can’t just automatically say, “Alex Smith will throw the ball more times in 2017,” it doesn’t happen that way. In the past three seasons Smith’s passing attempts for the year have gone from 464 to 470 to 489. An average of and 8.3 increase per year. Even is you double that in 2017 and make it 16 for the season you can see that it only represents one more target per game. Since Alex Smith’s completion percentabge was 67.1 (his best in a Chiefs uniform) last year, if he repeats that percentage, that’s approximately two-thirds of a reception more per game.

When JARD evaluated the team following their season ending loss they likely planned right then and there to relaease Jeremy Maclin after the June first deadline. By waiting until after June 1st, the Chiefs get some savings (here is an explanation of the June 1st deadline at OvertheCap.com). As Mr. Graversen suggested, any new WR coming out of the draft would have to take away touches from WRs already existing in the rotation. So, if Chesson moves into Robinson’s spot on special teams and Robinson moves into the top three WR rotation, the only way for Tyreek Hill to get more touches is for Maclin to be gone and Hill to move into the #1WR role.

When viewed in the following way, the wide receiver position looks to be an improved unit in 2017: Hill should do better than he did in 2016… Conley should only improve and needs just 37 more yards in 2017 to top Maclin’s 2016 output and… this move takes advantage of Demarcus Robinson’s substantial yards-after-catch (YAC) abilities and he’s probably been the best WR this spring. Jon Ledyard of USAToday says of Robinson, “He fights hard after each grab, wriggling out of arm tackles and maximizing each opportunity with the ball in his hands.” Of course, I’m slso hoping a promotion for Demarcus Robinson means a demotion for Albert Wilson.

Before proceeding any further:

Cautionary Note: Mina Kimes of ESPN says the responsiblitiy for Tyreek Hill and his domestic abuse actions now lay upon the shoulders of John Dorsey, Andy Reid, Clark Hunt and the Hunt family and should not be forgotten as the years pass. So, we here at ArrowheadOne will not forget either and think it should always be a part of any discussion involving Hill. Kimes says when the Chiefs chose Hill in the 5th round of the 2016 draft, they knew they were getting a discount becasue he is a first or second round talent, and consequently must also shoulder the uncomfortable realitites they have brought into the public eye… that comes with having Hill wear a Chiefs uniform.

Why mention Jamaal Charles, Knile Daivs and C.J. Spiller above? If JARD knew their plan to cut Maclin from early on in the offseason, which means the WR dominos falling would bring Hill more touches, then they needed to bring in someone reliable who could handle kickoff returns and some punt returns… if needed. It also makes sense because you don’t just line up as the number one wide receiver and never plan on getting hurt. If Hill goes down, even for a few games, JARD must have a contingency plan in place and while the team appears deep at the wide receiver position — deep enough to get by a couple of games without Hill — then it’s only a matter of covering kickoff and punt returns.

What it Means to Be the Chiefs #1WR

While the #1WR designation is critically important on most teams, it is not as important in a West Coast system in which the quarterback is supposed to scatter-shoot and involve many different WRs in the process. The #1WR designation basically comes with being the WR who catches the most passes. In 2015 that was Jeremy Maclin. In 2016 that was Tyreek Hill. Having two playmakers like Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce makes running pass plays for others a whole lot easier and consequently, more effective.

As TV announcer Chris Collinsworth said last season, the Chiefs spent much of the second half of the year playing “two-man ball” featuring Kelce and Hill and I don’t expect anything different this season. The advantage for the Chiefs other receivers will be that Hill and Kelce will demand the most double-team attention and open up the rest of the field for them. Knowing that… it’s hard to imagine that the Cheifs passing attack will be less potent in 2017.

You may have heard by now that the NFL’s players have voted Tyreek Hill as the 36th best player in the league. He has come to be known as “Cheetah” by his peers but some of you may be thinking that Hill is too diminuative to take the load of being the #1 WR for the Chiefs. You recall a guy named DeSean Jackson, right? Well, he goes 5-foot-10 inches and weighs 175 punds while Hill goes 5-foot-10 inches but weighs 185 pounds. If you’ve ever seen him up-close-and-personal… and I have… he’s a mass of muscle and I trust that he can stay more healthy than Jackson has. Why do I feel so strongly about Hill’s ascendence? Am I just assuming something that there is no proof for? Well, here’s your proof.

If you can’t get your hands on a guy, that’s one thing. But, if you get your hands on him and can’t bring him down… then that person has the makings of a star.

So, when Andy Reid said, “We’d like to get him more touches” it wasn’t just a good idea based on optics… the numbers say what we’ve all been thinking, Tyreek Hill is a dynamic playmaker who we can’t wait to see get the ball in his hands more often.

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see him make defenders miss.

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see one hand catches.

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see him adjust to find the ball.

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see him outrun the defenders.

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see him dunk a basketball. 😉

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see him progress.

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see him catch the ball over the middle and avoid getting killed.

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see him even do well in the fantasy leagues.

What does it really mean to be a star WR? You want to see his ability to accelerate.

What more do you really want to see a #1 star WR do?

 
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