Week 3: Chiefs at Colts, OPEN THREAD
Laddie Morse
Recently, I was watching a couple of Premiere League soccer analysts discuss pre-game strategies. It may surprise some of you to know I’m a soccer fan, but the point is, they made a big issue out of each team’s coach using his own approach to making sure they could put themselves in a position to win. The same is true here. So, let’s begin with that: positioning.
Positioning to Win: Indianapolis
The Colts are a running team. They want to win at the running game because they have a couple of running back in Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines and both are very good. They also have a formidable Offensive Line. Their OL is certainly the most expensive in the NFL and the Colts out-cost the Cards by $2.1M. Their OL just hasn’t shown up yet, but that doesn’t mean they won’t at noon today. Since their OL is high paid, and a strength, that likely means they try to run the ball first.
Taylor is 5-foot-10 and goes 226 lbs. and is the prototypical size that Brett Veach says he covets in a RB, and with good reason in Taylor’s case. Last year he finished with All-Pro honors and was selected by all the players in the league as the 5th overall best player in the NFL (yes, that’s the same group of players who placed out Patrick Mahomes as the 8th best).
For the Colts to win, they must feed Taylor the ball early and consistently with success, while at the same time holding the Chiefs offense to less than 27 points. If they are to have a chance to win, they must control the ball by running it successfully.
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The other strategy the Colts must win with is: getting their best WR, Michael Pittman Jr., the ball regularly. Pittman is 6-foot-4 and weighs in at 223 lbs.. He had 1,082 yards receiving last year and will be their main target. If the Colts can get Pittman the ball with regularity and run the ball successfully, they’ll have a good chance of winning against any opponent this year. You’d probably be surprised to find that the Colts have been winning their first two games in the important categories, except one: the win-loss column:
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Colts’ Motivation
What surprises me is that the Colts scored zero points against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have picked first in the draft the past two seasons. Meaning, they had the worst record in the NFL for two years running and the Colts couldn’t muster one measly TD or even a FG.
Tying the Texans in Week One and then scoring zip and losing to the Jags in Week Two is about as bad a start as you can imagine for these Colts. That should give them some real intrinsic motivation, which comes from not wanting to start this season without a win in their first three games. You would think. Playing their first game of the year at home should help sooth their emotional wounds too. Right? Maybe not.
Based on the above passing and rushing stats, the Colts have to figure they’re bound to break out soon. Too bad for them that they play the Chiefs — the best team in the AFC — this week.
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Positioning to Win: Kansas City
The Chiefs need to keep the ball in Patrick Mahomes hands as much as possible. If they can keep from turning the ball over, and they can continue to disperse the ball to the many targets and weapons they have, they should win this one going away. K.C. has averaged more than 110 yards rushing per game this year, while holding their opponent to less than 90 yards per game. If their defense can hold Jonathan Taylor to less than 125 yards, they should be able to hold the Colts offense down enough to place themselves in a position to win their third game in a row and remain perfect in the won-loss columns.
While the Colts will be trying to run the ball down the Chiefs throats, K.C. will be wanting to remain balanced by interspersing enough running plays to keep the Colts defense honest. It’ll be important for Mahomes to continue to use his RBs as receivers this week too:
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Patrick Mahomes has been able to share the ball with many different WRs so far this year. He said it best right before the season began:
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“The biggest thing is there’s going to be a different player every single game that has the big game…. So I’m sorry to all you fantasy football guys. It’s going to come from everywhere, so you’re going to have to kind of choose the right guy every week.”
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So, it’s revealing that Mahomes has thrown TDs to 6 different WRs, but not one to either: JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling or rookie Skyy Moore. My prediction is that it will change this week and I’d say that two of the three will get a passing TD vs the Colts.
Now, if that happens, the Chiefs will be in a great position to win.
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Chiefs’ Motivation
With so many rookies on their roster, finding the motivation should be a lot easier for the Kansas City Chiefs this year, than in year’s past. Why? Because these first year players are coming here with high expectations. Expectations = Motivation. Beyond that, Patrick Mahomes had stated this following the loss to the Bengals:
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“Whenever you taste winning the Super Bowl, nothing less than that is success. The leaders on this team know: This isn’t our standard.”
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So, the new players are motivated, and so are the veterans. Also, with K.C. shipping Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins for a boatload of draft picks, Mahomes has had to learn new ways of quarterbacking. He said this offseason:
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“For me I started being more patient,
started taking the underneath stuff,
and then started opening it up.”
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While that may not land under the heading of “motivation” if makes me think, I’m not so sure the Colts are suited to be able to defeat these Chiefs. Especially if Mahomes can “start taking the underneath stuff,” as he says.
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Injury Report
Shaquille Leonard — formerly Darius Leonard — is their best defensive player and not having him in the middle of their defense is a huge loss for them.
Not having Mike Danna will not be a positive for K.C. either. However, with Malik Herring, who had a very good camp and offseason, making his NFL debut, the Chiefs should be in good shape with him in rotation.
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Game Preview
Here’s a 5:04 Game Preview of the Chiefs vs the Colts with Matt McMullen and former Chiefs RT Mitchell Schwartz:
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Key Question
Will Colts QB Matt Ryan pose as big a threat as the Chargers Justin Herbert did last week? Why is that such an important question? Because, with Michael Pittman Jr. playing the Mike Williams role, and Jonathan Taylor playing the Austin Ekeler role… the big question then becomes: will Matt Ryan pose as big a threat as Justin Herbert did last week? Since I’m doubting that this will be the case, I’m predicting the Chiefs are victorious and win going away: 35 to 21, and that includes a meaningless TD by the Colts late in the game.
The #1 Reason K.C. Wins Today
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And…
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne