Week 9 – Chiefs at Browns:

OPEN THREAD

by Laddie Morse

Patrick Mahomes v Alex Smith in 2018

With the season half over, it’s good to take stock of just how far the Kansas City Chiefs have come. Paul Pulley did a good job of explaining the stats on Thursday in his piece called, “Chiefs: Half Way Stats and More Extrapolations.” Along those lines, I am interested in just how well our new QB is doing when compared to to our old QB. I’ve said this before but it bares repeating –> I am an Alex Smith fan. That being said, when Smith finished last season with 4,042 passing yards, 26 TDs and a 104.7 rating, I was thrilled. In fact, that was a banner year for Alex and those stats represent career bests in each category. With the way things have begun this year for Patrick Mahomes, I’m now sure that his presence on the bench… with him waiting in the wings… was a big reason why Smith had his best year. Sometimes a carrot does the trick… this time it was the stick. You could reason that… if Mahomes talent was so apparent during practices last year… then Kendall Fuller wouldn’t be with the Chiefs today. If PMII had been — just another guy — then Alex Smith might not have had his best year… and Washington might not have been as interested in trading for him. At least not so interested that they’d send their best DB to the Chiefs for a 34 year old QB.

So, let’s take a look at how Alex Smith is doing with his new team this year vs how Patrick Mahomes is doing in his first half season with the Chiefs. 

A 2018 Comparison- Patrick Mahomes vs his mentor, Alex Smith* * Smith has only played 7 games in 2018 but, Mahomes has played 8. Still, Mahomes has thrown as many TDs in 8 games as Alex Smith threw all of last year: 26.

Biggest Threat the Browns Defense Poses

The Cleveland Browns defense leads the league in takeaways with 22. If you’re talking about the Give Away/Take Away Differential, Cleveland is #1 with 11 and Kansas City is #2 with 5. However, Takeaways alone, the Browns lead the league with 12 INTs and 10 Fumble Recoveries. This is significant since the Browns overall record is 2-5-1, the reason for their losing isn’t because their defense is not producing turnovers. Consequently, the Chiefs need to be ready for the Browns to try and stay in this game by: producing more turnovers… which creates more possessions for their offense. This is the biggest way the Browns could be dangerous versus the Chiefs.

Biggest Threat the Browns Offense Poses

In the summer of 2017, I remember watching Patrick Mahomes at training camp but more specifically at the end of the Chiefs preseason games. The inconsistencies, or old college habits, were still in play and no one could have guessed hpw far he’d come in one year of sitting behind a very good, and established, quarterback in Alex Smith. The Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield hasn’t had that luxury and he should be vulnerable to whatever the Chiefs DC, Bob Sutton, throws at him.

However, if rookie RB Nick Chubb should be allowed to go off and run free, this game could take a negative turn for the men in Red, White and Gold. The Browns traded away starter Carlos Hyde, a very good RB, so that Nick Chubb could get more reps. Although he’s only gained 318 total rushing yards in 8 games, he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. The Chiefs defense is currently 25th in the league in rushing yards allowed but they are also improving.

I understand that ILB Anthony Hitchens could play but his ribs have been in a lot of pain and even if he wears a kevlar vest which he’s reported to be wearing today, you would expect his snaps to be limited. The question then is, who will be the run-stopping ILB plugged in next to Reggie Ragland? It sounds like that responsibility will be handed to 6-foot 3, 233 lb. LB Ben Niemann, a rookie UDFA out of Iowa.

With the Chiefs needing to limit the Browns running game in this contest… and force them to place more of the offensive burden on Baker Mayfield’s inexperienced shoulders, the question of who will step up and stop the run for the Chiefs is key. Go Ben Niemann!

Will History Dance With Karma Once Again

Hey, remember that time when Todd Haley was fired in mid-season and the Defensive Coordinator took over for him and the best team in the league came to town and Haley’s replacement whipped those suckers? Remember that? It happened 6 years ago when Romeo Crennel took over for Mr. Haley and then beat the unbeaten Green Bay Packers. Note: here’s my account of that game called, “Honey, I Shrunk the Packers” Teams can often go into “Rally Round the Captain” mode when one of their own is taken down. The Chiefs should not ignore the possibility that the Browns team members could be hyped up for this one. While I’m certain John Dorsey would love nothing more than to beat the team that fired him in mid-summer of 2017, his input in this game has to be negligible.

What’s Not Going to Happen

Much has been made of the last time Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes faced each other in college. Here how ESPN staff writer described it,

“The two sides combined for an FBS-record 1,708 yards of offense. Mahomes set FBS records with 819 yards of total offense and 734 passing yards…. And together, Mahomes and Mayfield combined for 1,279 passing yards — the most ever in a college football game…. Even to those who were there that night in Lubbock to watch Oklahoma outscore Texas Tech 66-59, the record-breaking numbers remain almost unfathomable to contemplate.”

However, if it comes down to a shootout in this game… Patrick Mahomes will likely emerge the overwhelming winner. While I can see Mahomes putting up 40+ points in this game, I’d be shocked to see Mayfield crack 20.

My prediction for this one is: Chiefs 45, Browns 17.

Now, what do you predict?

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