David Bell
It took everything I had not to use swear words in the title. The Chiefs offense was blanked out vs. the Broncos. IOW… no TDs. Versus the Dolphins, all they could manage was a total of 14 points. Oh Good Grief Charlie Brown! I am goign to be quite diect when I say that the responsibility for the problems that we are seeing with the offense should be laid at the feet of Andy Reid and OC Matt Nagy.
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I’m Also Unhappy With Mahomes’ Recent Decisions
Although Patrick Mahomes did not throw an interception in Frankfurt, he did cough up another fumble. Mahomes has had four turnovers in the past two games. So far, Mahomes in 9 games, has 8 INTs, 3 fumbles, while throwing 17 TDs for 2,442 Yards. His completion percentage is 68.6% and he owns a Passer Rating of 96.7 and compared to his career Passer rating of 104.8, you can tell he’s having a down year.
Mahomes has expressed disappointment with his own performance this season in several games and rightfully so. Save one game in 2017, his Passer rating has never been below 98.5… until this year. There is something going on with PM II that is difficult to quantify. In 2022, his Passer rating was 105.2. At this point in the season, his areal YPG is not going to reach his former numbers. My point in discussing PM II is he is not performing at his previous levels. Nine (9) games into the season, Patrick is not going to come anywhere near 5,000 yards passing. I question his target acquisition at the same time. I looked at game tape to see if receivers were getting open on their routes. While this is not a scientific view of missed opportunities, they were present in each game.
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Shifting the NFL Meme Aerial Game?
I was thinking about developing this construct: Defensive Coordinators have caught up with NFL Offenses –> they have have developed plans and defensive sets to counter the highly potent offenses over the past few years. For example, take a gander at the Chargers and their QB, Justin Herbert. On Sunday Night football they may be favored over the Jets, but the Over/Under is set at 40. That is very low expectation with the Chargers involved in that game whereas the expected O/U for the Colts vs. Patriots this week, is 43.5. Neither team is an offensive powerhouse.
The Chiefs were favored in the game in Germany. This week, the Texans face the Bengals who are favored to win outright. The O/U is predicted to be 47.5. CJ Stroud is the surprise QB of the season and it seems likely to me he will end up becoming the 2023 Rookie of the year. Joe Burrow and the Bengals finally hit their stride last week. I think it will be difficult for the Texans to meet their half of the O/U.
If the Chargers are not living up to their hype (they won their game 27-to-6, but the final score was way under the 40 set O/U game points), and… neither are the Chiefs. In their first loss of the season they fell to the Lions 20-21. I could not imagine at the time that this game would be held to a total of 41 points. Match that up with the loss at Denver when the Chiefs managed only 3 FGs by Harrison Butker or the 2nd half of the game vs. the Dolphins where they managed a complete goose egg!
In the AFC West you would not expect to see the Chiefs or Chargers with such low PPG. At least I did not expect it.
My overall point is –> both the Chargers and Chiefs have highly capable QBs, but Herbert has only 13 TDs and 1,800 passing yards, and Mahomes only has 2,442 passing yards and 17 TDs. The Chargers are averaging 24.9 PPG, the Chiefs 23.1. The Dolphins were leading the NFL with an average of 31.7 PPG and still do lead the NFL, but in the last 3 games their PPG total has fallen to 20.7, however they scored only 14 points in their loss to the Chiefs. If you had predicted that K.C. would be ranked 12th in the NFL in the PPG category, I would have exclaimed: NONSENSE! However, that is where we rank and our logical competition in the AFC West is the Chargers… who are ranked 9th.
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More Study Needed
The issues for this article came about as I thought about recent games that I watch, but is inclusive of the Chiefs in my thinking. The past two seasons, the Chiefs selecting defensive players high in the draft has been the theme, despite taking WRs Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice in the previous 2 drafts. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defensive capability has grown by leaps and bounds and the proof of the result is how well the Chiefs defense has played over the first nine games. The Chiefs defense has only allowed 14.6 PPG so far this year.
While I have been completely dismayed at the ability of the offense to score points, I am not dismayed at the improvement of the Chiefs Defense under DC Steve Spagnuolo, Secondary Coach Dave Merritt, and DL coach Joe Cullen. I am digging deeper into the numbers and trying to track an NFL Trend as it unfolds in 2023.
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Numbers of Interest
Top 15 Teams PPG Through Week Nine
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| Team | GP | TotYds | TotY/P | TotY/G | PYDS | PY/G | RYDS | RY/G | TD | PTD | RTD | PTS | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 9 | 3918 | 7.1 | 435.3 | 2676 | 297.3 | 1331 | 147.9 | 38 | 20 | 17 | 285 | 31.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | 3391 | 5.5 | 376.8 | 2347 | 260.8 | 1167 | 129.7 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 252 | 28.0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8 | 2772 | 5.3 | 346.5 | 2042 | 255.3 | 893 | 111.6 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 220 | 27.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8 | 3013 | 6.3 | 376.6 | 2034 | 254.3 | 1068 | 133.5 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 218 | 27.3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 9 | 3332 | 5.9 | 370.2 | 2423 | 269.2 | 973 | 108.1 | 29 | 18 | 10 | 240 | 26.7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 | 3321 | 5.7 | 369.0 | 1992 | 221.3 | 1443 | 160.3 | 27 | 10 | 17 | 239 | 26.6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 3097 | 5.2 | 344.1 | 2104 | 233.8 | 1110 | 123.3 | 26 | 11 | 12 | 232 | 25.8 |
| Detroit Lions | 8 | 3125 | 5.7 | 390.6 | 2174 | 271.8 | 1051 | 131.4 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 200 | 25.0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 2537 | 5.6 | 362.4 | 1939 | 277.0 | 725 | 103.6 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 174 | 24.9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8 | 2731 | 5.1 | 341.4 | 1956 | 244.5 | 900 | 112.5 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 193 | 24.1 |
| Houston Texans | 8 | 2809 | 5.5 | 351.1 | 2276 | 284.5 | 696 | 87.0 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 187 | 23.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 3318 | 5.7 | 368.7 | 2473 | 274.8 | 934 | 103.8 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 208 | 23.1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | 3193 | 5.6 | 354.8 | 2590 | 287.8 | 732 | 81.3 | 24 | 20 | 2 | 206 | 22.9 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8 | 2626 | 4.6 | 328.3 | 1650 | 206.3 | 1153 | 144.1 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 181 | 22.6 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 | 3094 | 5.0 | 343.8 | 2294 | 254.9 | 935 | 103.9 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 195 | 21.7 |
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Bottom Line
Defensive Coordinators and Defenses have caught up with the rapid empowerment of the offenses over the past five seasons. The success of Patrick Mahomes with Kansas City was likely the catalyst. More to come on this topic.
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David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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