What’s the Right Time to Trade Alex Smith?

As questions go, the biggest and most overarching question this season has been: what’s the right time to trade Alex Smith? While some may want to ignore that question right now… in the midst of a career year for Smith along with the lingering hope of a playoff run… the Chiefs are not in a place where they can play around — or perhaps it would be better to say “wait around” — because of the cap-strapped and draft-capital-strapped position they find themselves in right now.

It’s a bogus and a moot point to make if you’re going to site the position that the Cleveland Brown’s new General Manager left the Kansas City Chiefs in, as it concerns draft picks and cap space. It’s over and done with. Caput. Blaming him now, will do the dealing with current Chiefs issues, no help at all.

So, before we talk about when is the best time to trade Alex Smith, let’s see where are the Chiefs at in relation to the 2018, or 2019, NFL draft and their salary cap?

The Chiefs 2018 & 2019 NFL Draft Picks

First, it’s understandable to think that the Chiefs would take the 9 picks they had in the 2017 draft and use some of that “draft capital” to take a quarterback of the future in Patrick Mahomes II, with the 10th pick. However, they not only traded a 1st and third in 2017 to move up, they gave up a 1st round choice in 2018 which leaves the cupboard bare when it comes to adding any first round talent next year.

No one will likely complain now that rookie RB Kareem Hunt has made the Pro Bowl, that the Chiefs also trading a 3rd, 4th and 7th round pick to jump up and draft him as well. While this trade does not directly effect the 2018 draft picks, it’s the process that the Chiefs engaged in that does. There were a high volume of trades taking place throughout the draft this past April, so we can probably expect a similar atmosphere this come spring.

Why bring that up? Because the Chiefs new GM has already made a trade that will effect the 2019 draft. Once again, it looks like the trade for ILB Reggie Ragland was a solid one but, he did cost the Chiefs some future draft capital… a 4th rounder in 2019.

Trades effecting the Chiefs 2018 draft:

• K.C. traded their 1st-rounder in 2018, plus their 27th overall pick (2017)… and a 3rd rounder (2017)… for the 10th pick in 2017.
• K.C. traded their 5th rounder in 2018 to Cleveland in for… OL Cameron Erving.
• K.C. traded their 7th rounder in 2018 to San Francisco in for… CB Kenneth Acker.

So, what does all this have to do with Alex Smith? Simple: it shows clearly that the Chiefs need more draft picks. Especially in the early rounds of the coming draft.

What could the Chiefs get for Alex Smith in a trade?

While Alex Smith is currently the second rated QB in the NFL, he’s the 19th highest paid QB in the NFL. He making $17M in the 2017-18 season and is scheduled to make $20.6M. Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins and yes, Brock Osweiler, all make more than Alex Smith. So, there should be no problem for a team that is QB hungry to be willing to shell out what Alex Smith is being paid by taking on his contract. Frankly, he’s worth more than that and he probably has 5 good years left and may not have even reached his potential yet.

So, what does that make him worth? I’d say the Chiefs could probably get a first and a third for him this offseason. Maybe even a second instead of a third. If that is the case, consider what the Chiefs will have invested in the QB position or what they’re trading for compared to what they paid when they acquired Smith (two second rounders). By trading away a second first round pick for Mahomes last year (a 2018 1st rounder)… then being able to get a first round pick back (in 2018)… it balances the scales considerably. It also means a team that espouses to “building through the draft” will be able to garner some first round value to continue constructing the future of the team.

Now, let me say, I’m a huge Alex Smith fan. However, if the Chiefs can get a first and third for him as well as dumping that $20.6M salary… they need to pull the trigger.

Although subtracting the $20 mil from the payroll is a big enough reason to move him… because the Chiefs are currently at $2.7M under the cap — before Smith takes his pay raise in 2018 — freeing up those cap dollars will mean everything to a team attempting to break through and reach championship contender status.

Now, I’m not saying I think Patrick Mahomes will take the Chiefs to those heights in 2018, but this is also a moot point. The Chiefs drafted him last April to be their QBOTF and so the only question that remains is, when will they make that transition? Of course, if they wait a year Smith will be an unrestricted free-agent by then and the Chiefs will end up with a 3rd round compensatory pick the following year after that by releasing him. So, the time is ripe for trading Smith. All signs point to the 2018 offseason.

Some may question whether or not Patrick Mahomes can come in and work right away in Andy Reid’s offense. While I can see the doubters are going to doubt, doubt, doubt… it should work out to be a positive for the offense because I think Andy Reid will have to scale it back a bit… in other words — simplify his offense, which is what many of us have been calling for him to do all along.

Also, whether or not Patrick Mahomes is ready or not… is… once again… a moot point. It’s going to happen this year or next. The value for Alex Smith appears to be there THIS offseason, so, I think we should all get used to the fact that Patrick Mahomes will be the Kansas City Chiefs starting QB in 2018. Probably.

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