We are all very confident in the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense. Maybe some of us are a bit more confident than others. Granted, with injuries to linebacker Justin Houston and and the departure of cornerback Sean Smith, it’s understandable why some could be doubting the return to prominence of the Chiefs defense. Still, when you look at the game holistically, most would say the defense is STILL the strong point of this football team.
So, where does that leave the offense?
Last year, without running back Jamaal Charles in the mix due to a torn ACL, the Chiefs
were 27th in total offense with 331 YPG of offense. Further, despite the fact that quarterback Alex Smith hit a career-high yardage mark with 3,486, the Chiefs were 30th overall in passing yards per game. On the flip side, despite Charles’ absence, the Chiefs ran the ball well, finishing 6th overall in rushing with over 126 yards per game. Still, despite their lack of passing offense–still–the team finished in the top 10 in the only 
category that really matters: scoring. The Chiefs averaged just a field goal short of four touchdowns per game with an average of 25.3 points per game.
At this point in his career–and time with the Chiefs–we all know exactly what Alex Smith is. This is not an unapologetic “I love Alex Smith” piece. He will never be Drew Brees, Tom Brady or even Tony Romo. Even after a season in which he threw for a career best, he was still well below the average in total passing yards. Despite the team statistics, Smith was at the bottom of the second tier in regards to passing yards and touchdowns, throwing 20 last season which is slightly above average for him over his career–his average is 18 per full season played.
But, the offense isn’t just Alex Smith. Yes, he runs it. Yes, he touches the ball every play. But he has a slew of other offensive players around him that have to click as well.
We all know what Charles can do. Many think Charles is the top offensive weapon on this team and the centerpiece of the offense. When Charles is playing, I’m inclined to agree, but I will stop short of thinking “this team can’t win unless 25 is on the field and scoring touchdowns.” One needs to only look to last season and see how seamlessly running backs Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware jumped into the offense to see that isn’t the truth. In case you have forgotten, the Chiefs reeled off 10-straight regular season wins and the first postseason win since the 1993 season without Charles in the building. So the days of thinking the only way the Chiefs can win is with Charles are over.
Looking to the tight end position, last year was a huge year for Travis Kelce. The electrifying pass-catching tight end had the best season of his young career for certain. That season, which saw Kelce catch 72 balls for 875 yards and five touchdowns, was the catalyst to “Killa Trav” receiving a $46 million contract extension just days before his first Pro Bowl appearance.
At wide receiver, everyone is familiar with Jeremy Maclin. During his first season with the Chiefs, Maclin caught 87 passes from Smith for 1,088 yards and eight touchdowns. This was only the second 1,000-yard season in Maclin’s career. This was done, despite missing a game due to a mild concussion. Perhaps more importantly, it seems Smith has found a receiver he can trust in Maclin. After 11 years in the league, Smith was finally able to have one of his receivers go over 1,000 yards in a single season.
Moving forward, Smith, Charles, Kelce and Maclin are the keys to the Chiefs having the prolific offense we’ve all dreamed about seeing. But it doesn’t stop with them and they can’t do it themselves. Some of the second-tier players have to step up in order for this team to take the next step.
When looking at the receiving corps, Chris Conley, Albert Wilson and Rod Streater have to insert themselves into the offense early and often. We’ve seen what Conley can do–especially when he was inserted into the offense after Maclin went down with injury in the Wild Card game against the Houston Texans–and Wilson has flashes of brilliance, though he is a bit inconsistent. The real question mark in the group is Streater.
Despite entering the league as an undrafted free agent, Streater had two fantastic seasons with the Oakland Raiders before falling off over the last two seasons. By all accounts, he is stepping up during training camp thus far and has a real shot to make the team, and contribute. Combine that with a second year in the system for Conley and a third for Wilson and the Chiefs receivers could be quite good. They’re going to have to be in order to take some of the heat off of Maclin.
Finally, the Chiefs success or failure on offense begins and ends with he offensive line. As previously discussed, left tackle Eric Fisher just signed a huge contract extension worth $48 million in new money. The Chiefs also rolled the free-agent dice and brought in Mitch Schwartz to anchor the right side of the game for the next five years. In addition to that, Mitch Morse (who will be known as the “other Mitch”) played exceptionally well in the center position last season and projects to continue that trend, if he can avoid concussions this season.
The only two big question marks on the offensive line are the guard positions and rookie Parker Ehinger looks to have taken an early lead on one of those positions. If journeyman lineman Jah Reid, who the Chiefs re-upped for three years during the offseason, doesn’t project as the Chiefs swing tackle, he could conceivably fill that last guard slot, as he played well in that position last season when called upon to do so.
So where does all this leave us? It’s prediction time.
I predict Alex Smith, in his fourth full year under Reid and in the same offensive system will continue to improve upon his season bests. I think Smith’s numbers at the end of the season will 4,000 yards passing, 350 yards rushing, 25 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs and 10 interceptions.
I predict Jeremy Maclin will have his third 1,000 yard receiving season in a row. He’ll finish with 1,300 yards and 13 TDs.
I predict Travis Kelce will also break the 1,000 yard mark this year with 1,100 yards receiving and 8 TDs.
I predict Charles will continue on his path of dominance in the running game and rush for 1,300 yards with 15 TDs. He has blown his ACL before and he has come back before. If you need your memory refreshed, the season after his last major injury, he rushed for over 1,500 yards. I’m confident that happens again.
Finally, based on those numbers, the Chiefs will be right around the 380 yards per game mark. Based on last season’s standings, that would put the Chiefs in the top five category for offense. That might be a tad bit high for this team, but given that it’s “now or never” they’re going to have to step up their game and get close to this point if they want to win the AFC West and then move on to the big stage.
So there it is, folks. Those are my predictions for the season and the offense of the Chiefs. Am I close? Am I crazy? Let me know below! I look forward to hearing from you!