Laddie Morse
I’m not saying the Kansas City Chiefs “can’t” win Super Bowl LVII, but if things don’t change quickly, it doesn’t look like they will. I know the Chiefs spent significant draft capital on their defensive secondary, and their pass rush, in the 2022 draft, but their secondary — you better sit down for this — is now the worst in the NFL!
Secondary a Primary Problem
I realize that saying they have the worst secondary will upset some of you, but I don’t know how else to describe a group that has allowed the most TD passes in the league this season, by a significant margin. From StatMuse.com:
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Here’s a more complete look, the top 15 teams in the NFL who have allowed the most TD passes to opposing teams (this includes last Monday Night Football).
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What this is saying is that 87.5% of the NFL’s teams have allowed fewer TD passes than the Chiefs have. I can tell you from being a classroom instructor for 39 years that being in the bottom 4th percentile (or less) is a horrible place to be. When you are the worst and nothing can make you feel better, until you climb out of the hole you’ve dug for yourself.
You may be asking yourself, “Is he even a Chiefs fan?” and I can assure that I’m the biggest Chiefs fan in the world… you just can’t ignore the facts.
You can argue that it’s because the Chiefs Offense, which sometimes gets an early lead and forces other teams to play from behind, but that won’t cut it because this year, it hasn’t happened that often. After 13 games played, and with four to go until the playoffs, the Chiefs secondary has allowed 3 more TD passes than any other team. That’s three more than the Titans, 4 more than the Cardinals and Steelers, and 7 (seven) more than the Lions, Raiders, Chargers and Jaguars.
Plus, only two of those teams would make the playoffs from that group, if the playoffs started today: the Titans and the Chargers. It’s clear, that’s not the company you want to keep.
I watched a good part of the Eagles/Giants game on early on Sunday and the Philly team blew out the NYGs, 48-to-22. The Eagles are the clear favorites in the NFC to make it to the Super Bowl. The clear favorite to make it to the Super Bowl in the AFC? Well, sorry to tell you this, but it’s not the Chiefs. In fact, there is no “clear” favorite in the AFC. The Bengals are surging… the Bills are inconsistent like K.C…. and then there’s the Chiefs who are literally floundering.
The reason the Chiefs are not the clear favorite has mostly to do with their defense. The reason the Defense is playing poorly? It’s not t he DL. The defense had 6 sacks against the Broncos to go along with, 7 tackles for a loss, and 11 (eleven) QB Hits. You read that right… ELEVEN, QB Hits. So, while the DL and front seven were taking care of business, the secondary was not, allowing 4 TD passes, and one of those was to the Broncos back-up QB, Brett Rypien.
The K.C. godhead has been saying for most of the season that it will take time for the rookies who they drafted to the defensive backfield to mature and that by the playoffs they should be good to go. At this point in the season, I’d say, they just need to go. I like L’Jarius Sneed a lot, but besides him, I don’t find a lot to be sure of.
The 2023 NFL Draft
I’ve been saying for some time now that the Chiefs should target the DL and OL in the early rounds of the NFL draft in 2023. However, knowing what we know now, I’d really like to see Brett Veach trade up again and get the best CB possible in this draft. This may be a good year to pick up a top rated CB because the Top three CBs according to DrafTek are 6-foot-2 or 6-foot-1 and two of them run sub-4.47 40 yard dashes while CB Kelee Ringo out of Georgia runs a 4.35.
The Chiefs are 22nd in the NFL in Team Passing Yards allowed per game. However, it’s the TD passes allowed that’s truly disturbing.
Patrick Mahomes’ INTs
The other stat line that makes me think the Chiefs could lose the next Super Bowl, or even lose out on the opportunity to go, is the number of Interceptions that Patrick Mahomes has thrown.
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Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, and Derek Carr are not QBs who you want to be associated with. Mahomes response after the game with the Broncos was:
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I call that statement, lifting the bus instead of throwing them under it where they belong. Besides, I wouldn’t say his teammates picked him up on that day anyway. The real problem is… if Mahomes goofs up, the defense HAS TO step up.
Reid said of Mahomes INTs, “It just comes with the territory” and while Mahomes is the Superman of QBs — and does Superman type things on a regular basis — he has also thrown 48 INTs in his career, in 76 games, for a .63 INT/game average. It’s not so much one INT that hurts, but when he has multiple INTs it means the rest of the team must step up, even though I’ve shown above that the defensive backfield — is a major weak link — and is in disarray. While I recognize that interceptions may be the baggage that gets you aboard the Mahomes train, it’s the excess baggage here that is disturbing, and limiting. Plus, there appears to be a pattern to his INTs this year. He is at times perfectly willing to throw into coverage to “make a play” and that’s what really gets him into trouble.
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Steve Spagnuolo
Much to the chagrin of Chiefs Kingdom, I don’t believe DC Steve Spagnuolo is the problem. It has more to do with what he has to work with… meaning, who he has to work with (the players). Andy Reid continues to put a premium on Offensive players and even in last year’s draft, one year of defensive drafting isn’t enough. During the offseason, the only big names he signed were Offensive players: WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling plus RB Ronald Jones II who has only had 14 snaps so far. Brandon Williams is the biggest Defensive name the Chiefs have signed this year (on November 30th) and he just played in 15 snaps for K.C. against Denver.
While I’m thrilled that K.C. is now drafting at the bottom of each round, because their previous year’s record is so good, but they have to locate more players who are like L’Jarius Sneed. Trent McDuffie may turn out to be a very solid defender, but he was beat for a TD by Jerry Jeudy.
While the DL was good in this game versus the Broncos, their performance against the Bengals and the Bills left so much to be desired that they were the primary reasons for those losses. So, I want to see Brett Veach focus all his attention on the DL and the DBs. Or maybe in the reverse order.
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Right Track
In some ways, the Chiefs appear to be on the right track. Rookie DE George Karlaftis is up to 3.5 Sacks for the season and has registered one sack in each of his last three games. Chris Jones is up to 10 sacks this season and with 11 games played Frank Clark now has 4 sacks and his play has improved this year. Yes, I still think it was the right move to trade Tyreek Hill and take all those extra picks. However, that has also been dependent upon Patrick Mahomes maturing as a QB and learning he can’t lean on one individual to bail him out at the last second, or on 3rd downs, especially when it’s 3rd and long.
Wrong Track
When you are up by 27 points to a bad team, you just can’t let them off the hook. This was not like being down to the Houston Texans 24-to-0 as the Chiefs were on January 12, 2020 (a playoff game). The Chiefs then outscored the Texans 51-to-7 to win that game 51-to-31. When our QB does something fantastic, we celebrate it. So, when he blunders, we must also wale and moan in protest. Of such is fandom.
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Patrick Mahomes may have become the best QB in the NFL and he might even deserve the MVP honor this season, but if he doesn’t clean up his act, the Chiefs won’t even be making the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs may end up an early out in the upcoming playoffs.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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