Wild Predictions and Draft Mockery – Wild Card Weekend, it’s a perfect time for Chiefs fans to grab a cup of hot cocoa, curl up on the couch and watch teams that won’t make the Super Bowl play their hearts out… and empty their playbooks. They do so, hoping that they might be one of the 20.7% of wildcard teams, since 1990, that have made it to the Super Bowl without a first round bye. This week we’ve got predictions for the games, and, for the Chiefs only crowd, a little draft talk as well. Kick back, relax, and enjoy an amazing weekend courtesy of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
I generally make a habit of picking the team with the best QB, but in this case I’ll make an exception. I think the Bills go into NRG Stadium, and narrowly defeat the Texans. The reason why is simple: passing defense makes playoff teams. What do these seven teams have in common: New England, San Francisco, Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota and Green Bay? They all have top 10 passing defenses (measured by DVOA). What about the Houston Texans? The Texans rank 26th in passing DVOA. The NFL is a passing league, teams who can’t stop the pass don’t make it far in the playoffs. Texans are lucky to be in the division they’re in or, to be perfectly frank, they might not even be in the playoffs. DeShaun Watson is good, and DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best receivers in the game, so they’ll make a fight of it, but expect an upset in Texas.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
When you think Titans, you think great defense, and pedestrian run-based offense, but perception and reality frequently differ. The Titans have a near average pass defense, and a top 10 run defense. The true strength of the team, in their run to the playoffs, has been their offense. Titans rank 3rd, in weighted DVOA among NFL offenses and they’ve been incredibly balanced doing so. Titans rank 6th in passing DVOA and 5th in rushing DVOA. Such a balanced attack will be difficult for the Patriots to shut down, outright. Ultimately, this game will come down to the Patriots offense vs the Titans defense. It might not be fun to watch, if you like modern offenses, but it’s bound to be a nail-biter. That’s the type of game the Titans have gotten very good at winning. I’ll give them a slight edge over the Patriots, but this game could go either way.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
The Saints pass defense is solid and their run defense is elite. They also have the best QB, WR and Head Coach in this match-up. They are going to beat the Vikings. It won’t be particularly close. No surprise to anyone except a handful of Vikings fans, who haven’t learned to guard their hearts against disappointment.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
In a division that nobody wanted to win, the Philadelphia Eagles won the crown by virtue of being the only team with a winning record, but just barely. Seattle plays in a tough division, but managed to finish 11-5. This game may stay close for a while, as Doug Pederson is a good head coach, but Seattle will ultimately prevail, probably by at least two scores.
The Kansas City Chiefs View
If things shake out in this manner, the Titans will be going to Baltimore, and Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills. Bills despite being the higher seed, are the far easier matchup for KC. Steve Spagnuolo has been excellent at limiting one dimensional offenses. Josh Allen is growing, but he still has a long ways to go and will easily be exposed, by Chiefs’ defense. Ravens will probably beat the Titans, but it will be a really tough physical match for a team whose starters won’t have played the last two weeks. An upset isn’t entirely out of the question, but it’s about as likely as Miami beating NE at Foxborough, with the two seed on the line. Can another miracle happen for the Chiefs? Only time will tell.
A 2020 Mock Draft
I won’t bore you with too many draft details until after the Super Bowl, but this is something like what Chiefs should be looking at. Muti is a versatile athlete who can fill in at tackle, or start at OG and could be developed into a great center. Sermon is a solid all around back, but really excels as a pass protector. Mahomes doesn’t need perfect receivers to succeed, he needs time. Shoring up the OL and adding a good pass protecting back will give him all the time he needs to carve up a secondary. Wade and Holmes would give you a great athletic duo of CBs, who play with the physicality Spagnuolo demands. Chiefs need a do it all LB, but this draft is lacking in game ready options. Surratt is an athletic, ascending player who can turn into just what the Chiefs need. Until then, he should still be able to see the field in certain roles, and be a dominant blocker on Special Teams.
Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne
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