Will the Chiefs Ride the Surge in Version 2022!

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Let’s call it as I think it will be:

The Chiefs Surging Resurgence — 2022!

How’s that? Another Super Surge!

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I wrote two articles this past week, with the beginning of the title being “Notice Is Served…”. I’m very confident that those two articles focused on the positive values that the players bring to the table. In addition, I tried to tinge my viewpoints with conservative estimates and bolster confidence that the expectations were reasonable.

I will follow with this third article focusing on the Chief’s secondary, again with the same title construct. The Secondary will feature a rookie starter on the outside opposite L’Jarius Sneed. That’s the exposure as it will take time for newcomer Trent McDuffie to get up to game speed against top NFL competition.

I have contemplated the upcoming season’s overall outlook and the schedule’s challenges for the past few days. The first eight weeks are going to be brutal. At one point, Laddie and I spoke about how the Chiefs would finish when they got to the Bye. Laddie explained that if the Chiefs got to that Bye-point with a record of 4-3, they would be positioned well to get through and into post-season play. I agree with that assessment.

The Chiefs face the Cardinals on the road in their season opener on September 11th and finish on October 23rd away against the 49’ers. There is no team in between that does not have Post-season aspirations, and most of those were playoff teams in 2021. The Chiefs play away from home four times in seven games, with three games at Arrowhead. Here’s a look at the first 8 Weeks of the Chiefs schedule:

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That’s a tough nut to crack and is probably the reason why NFL experts pick the Chief to fail to add the 7th sequential AFC West title to the string. One “pundit” or an expert observer picks the Chiefs to finish last in the AFC West. The prediction comes from James Jones, a Former NFL WR who states on the Ryen Russillo Podcast that the Chiefs will finish last in the AFC West.

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He posits that the Chiefs will not be among the elite teams of the AFC and that 2022 was the year that the Buffalo Bills would ascend and become the AFC Champion when all is said and done.

I won’t fuss about recognizing the Bills as a top AFC team and being at the top of the AFC Elite Peak. We all probably would arrive at the same conclusion, but to break down the AFC West and have the Chiefs finish last? I think that is a misplaced pessimism. You can read an article by Kelly Thompson at Fansided in which he delves into the Jones podcast and the former wide receiver’s conclusions here, it’s called, “James Jones predicts KC Chiefs will finish last in AFC West.“

I certainly would dispute the notion that the Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers are better teams than that the Chiefs will field in 2022 vociferously. No other team has been able to topple the Chiefs from the AFC West Champion team in six sequential seasons. In the two articles, I dived into why the Chiefs would be a Super Bowl contender once again. I did not address what the other teams have done to try to overtake Kansas City by additions those teams have made, the most noteworthy being that of the Las Vegas Raiders acquiring Davante Adams from the Green Bay Packers. Additionally, pundits are want to cover the learning curve that the Chiefs will face without Tyreek Hill, adding newcomer receivers to the Chief’s receiver corps.

The above conclusion is proper: the Chief’s aerial offense can’t be the same without Tyreek Hill. However, this fact does not preclude the Chiefs offense from being a Potent, Diverse, and Powerful offense that will be difficult to stop. Being a different offense than prior years presents other team defenses with an immediate problem: they won’t know what to expect and won’t know how to defend against the multiple players who are all threats to score on any given snap. As I presented in the first article, I believe that we all witnessed Patrick Mahomes’ effort to gather his WRs in Texas to get acclimated to their QB, his passes, and vice versa for PMII. The pundits do not address a similar learning curve for the Chief’s opponents. Something is missing in their story-line. As Patrick Mahomes has done, no other QB made an effort to bring his receivers on board in the off-season. The players who joined Patrick in Texas unanimously stated they viewed the gathering as crucially beneficial to the familiarization process with their Quarterback.

The Chiefs “New-Look Offense”: Different Will Be Better?

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My answer is an unqualified “Yes!” The reasons are numerous. First and foremost is that the Chiefs have the best QB in the NFL. Oh, I could list all the stats, records, and team successes since he took over the helm. However, I would hold out the 2018 season as a great example, and that team was a success in large part because defenses were kept guessing, and the Chiefs fired on all cylinders.

The WR corps that will be on the receiving end of Patrick Mahomes passes is one huge reason I state this as a soon-to-be fact. Man-for-man, this is going to be the best WR group the Chiefs have ever fielded. Again, I would point out that the Chiefs may keep six players on the active roster, but even if it’s only five, there will be talent in the Practice Squad pool who could seamlessly be called up and who would fit the receiver pool.

On any given snap, any receiver on the field could be the recipient of a Mahomes pass. This includes TEs Travis Kelce, Jody Fortson, and Noah Gray. The RB group is going to be a top-drawer unit as well. CEH, Ronald Jones, Jr., Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, Jerrion Ealy, Derrick Gore, and Tayon Fleet-Davis are all pass-catching RBs. At this point, who makes the roster and who goes to the PS is only guess-work, but the group has several experienced RBs. I think Pacheco is making his bid to make the roster and has received an early nod from S/T’s coach Dave Toub as the top Kick returner. If that’s the case, then the 3rd RB is probably settled: CEH, Jones, McKinnon, and Pacheco. Of course, they are keeping FB Michael Burton on the roster – his value is proven, and he is a valuable contributor to Special Teams.

The Offensive Line

If I had to give an overall assessment, the Chiefs would bring back four of five starters from 2021. Swap in Wylie, who took over for Lucas Niang, and the Chiefs have the five starters returning and building on the 4-Cs (Cohesiveness, Coordination, Continuity, and Communication). I harp on this as a crucial aspect of the OL each season.

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My basic evaluation is that no matter who takes over the role at ROT at the beginning of the season, the Chief’s offensive line is going to be stout. It looks very good because of that. My biggest regret is that I don’t think Lucas Niang can return and be in the lineup on opening day. If he is capable of playing, but in need of getting up to speed, the Chiefs would best be served to start him on the active roster and not the PUP. In this case, the Chiefs might keep ten offensive linemen on the active roster.

I took a look at Orlando Brown Jr. in training camp this week and he looks like he has slimmed down considerably and will be faster as the starting LOT. It appears that Brown is in better physical shape than I’ve ever seen him — just comparing his videos with the Ravens.

If Brown’s condition is what I think it is, and with one of the best IOL Groups in the NFL (Thuney, Humphrey, and Smith), it all comes down to who will settle in at ROT. I am presuming that Lucas Niang starts the season on the PUP, which means that Andrew Wylie is likely to pick up where he left off at the close of the 2021 season. Rookie Darian Kinnard will make the roster, and I think Geron Christian will be the SW/T. The IOL depth is also suitable with Allegretti and Wylie could serve as depth there. That is a darned good group of players, with a couple of others vying for a roster spot. The emergence of Darian Kinnard is something I am hoping to see more of in training camp.

The “New-Look Defense”

The defense is going to be strong at the start. How strong is where the question comes to our attention? Spagnuolo’s defense will depend on the youth movement at the same time.

Linebackers

This is a very strong group. Gone is the green dot LB Anthony Hitchens, replaced by Nick Bolton. Bolton proved his case in 2021 even as the signal caller. He will play next to Willie Gay, Jr. in all defensive sets.

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When the 4-3 base is used, I look to see Elijah Lee make waves. The Chiefs LB group is as deep as ever can be recalled. Leo Chenal rounds out the 4th LB. Mike Rose goes to the PS. Would the Chiefs retain 5 LBs to the active roster? Jermaine Carter would get the nod at this point or win the role against Lee for the Active Roster. Still, this group is robust and still includes Darius Harris.

Success Breeds Success

The Front Four

Improved since the O posted the first “Notice Is Served” article. Brett Veach signed DE Carlos Dunlap and now that gives the Chiefs two experienced DEs: Clark and Dunlap, who I would posit as the starters. Then we get to rookie George Karlaftis. George is a sponge, soaking in everything he can get. Finally, Spagnuolo needs to see progress from Josh Kaindoh and Malik Herring; one of them probably goes to the PS.

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At DT, the Chiefs Field One of the Best

That being: Chris Jones. Derrick Nnadi should get the nod on the left side as he is a solid run-defense. I would truly like to see the Chiefs sign a pass-rush DT. Unfortunately, that probably is improbable. Getting a true 1-gap DT (Nose Tackle) would also be a boon.

If I had to guess right now? Khalen Saunders gets the nod for the 3rd DT, but I remain skeptical. Taylor Stallworth could move up and take that possible slot. Cortez Broughton (on the I/R right now) is also on the roster. Who knows how that shakes out? Suffice it to say, the Chiefs will be well-served at DE with the Dunlap signing. I am convinced that the Chiefs will use a 4-man front with Clark, Dunlap, Jones, and Karlaftis.

The Secondary Youth Movement

The “New-Look” Cornerback Group

The most questionable group of the defense is going to be the secondary. L’Jarius Sneed will start outside. Opposite him, Trent McDuffie gets the nod.

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Rashad Fenton is working back from surgery and is on the PUP. Spags is rotating between Jaylen Wilson and Joshua Williams as the 3rd CB. Lonnie Johnson, a Vet, has an excellent shot to round out the group. There’s a slew of other players, including Deandre Baker and Dicaprio Bootle, but we must wait and see it play out in camp.

The “New-Look” Safeties

I am pleased as punch about the Safety group even though Tyrann Mathieu is gone. Justin Reid will be the signal caller for the secondary. I think he will be even better than my worrywart self as I was disposed to retain Tyrann Mathieu. Juan Thornhill will gain the nod as the free safety. Newcomer and rookie hard hitter Bryan Cook, will round out the front three in the group. I like Bryan Cook a bunch!

The Chiefs “New-Look” Offense and Defense

Both are going to be solid. After the first five games, I think the secondary gels and DC Steve Spagnuolo will have determined how the Front end of the defense will utilize players, and he will choose the rotation of linemen and how they are used. Ditto the Linebacker Group as Brendan Daly, the new LB Coach, will provide the plan to use the players and get the most out of Leo Chenal.

There is little concern on my part about the offense, and truthfully, though I think the young players need NFL time, it will be a good defense. I’d suggest the defense moves up in ranking to about 15th by the end of the season. As far as all the noise about the offense taking a step back? It’s just noise. The Chiefs offense is going to blow by a lot of teams that will begin by overlooking the prowess both on the ground and in the air. After all, leading the effort is Patrick Mahomes. Who is going to bet against him? Besides James Jones??

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David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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