Would You, Could You, Chiefs Fans? 12·5·19

Would You, Could You, Chiefs Fans? 12·5·19 – like any other fan at ArrowheadOne, I dream dreams for the Chiefs of free agent super signing sessions and offseason dream drafts coming true simply because I once rode the Matterhorn at Disneyland. I also daydream of dominating defensive designs dancing in my head — now a real possibility — producing a plethora of endless little zeros followed by… more zeros.

Yes, I have spent a lot of time in an ocean of “What if?” Like, I used to think about… what if the Chiefs hadn’t drafted Donald Stephenson in 2012 at #74… they could have had a little known guy named Russell Wilson next in that same draft at #75… and, instead of Bernard Pollard… they could have had Devin Hester 3 picks later. So, let’s take a look at some Chiefs issues that… could be.

Would You, Could You… believe that Tom Brady is physically fading fast? Take a look at a couple of graphs I constructed, then tell me what you think he can still do to hurt the Chiefs defense this coming weekend?

If you don’t buy into the idea that Tom Brady is declining because his overall completion percentage is in a free fall, perhaps a look at his QB Rating will be more revealing.

If you’ve been paying attention to Tom Brady’s behavior when his receivers fail to make the catch or are out of place, you should know he’s showing more frustration that he ever has before. I’d question if that’s because of HIS performance, or THEIRS? One way or the other, this may not be one of those late season fixes the Patriots are known for so they can elevate their game by the time the playoffs roll around.

Would You, Could You… accept the idea that the Chief are at least headed towards having a “Tenacious Defense?” A couple of our ArrowheadOne writers have predicted the Chiefs will have a top ten defense by year’s end. They sit at #16 (in points allowed per game) right now after beginning the year near the bottom of the heap.

Admittedly, the Chiefs run defense is still wanting, but their pass defense has been pretty good at times. Even though the run defense is ranked 30th in yards allowed, every team appears to be using the run to attack the Chiefs defense and the Chiefs defensive response to that is to hold the yards per carry down. In fact, the Chiefs run defense is tied for 11th in the league in YPC allowed.

The Chiefs, as a team, are sitting at #4 in the giveaway/takeaway differential and while some of that is dependent upon the offense not fumbling or throwing INTs, the defense is responsible for 12 INTS and 7 fumble recoveries: 19 takeaways overall. It’s clear to me that the defense is headed in the right direction. I can’t wait to see where they end up in February.

The Chiefs defense is tied for 9th place in team sacks with the Philadelphia Eagles with 34.0 sacks. Gee, I really like it when the Chiefs are in the top ten… in any defensive category.

Would You, Could You… get behind the idea that the Chiefs are still going to end up with an AFC Bye in the playoffs by finishing with the #2 cede? Well, if they do, it may be because of their strength of schedule (S.O.S.).

Sure, their are still a number of ways the Chiefs could enter the playoffs but if you’re a Chiefs fans you’d like to see the mget a Bye the first weekend… thereby gaining a week of rest before making another run at the Super Bowl. One way that could actually happen is if,

1) The Chiefs win-out and finish 12-and-4 while,

2) The Bills win-out and also finish 12-and-4.

In that case, the deciding factor would be the team with the most difficult “Strength-of-Schedule” would get the Bye week… and that would belong to, none other than the Chiefs. Most likely.

I say, most likely, because, for now, the Chiefs have a decided advantage in that area.

I’ve included the Buffalo Bills here at #24 because if they win the remainder of their games, and if the Chiefs do so as well… for now… the Chiefs would have the harder S.O.S.. I’ve included the Patriots S.O.S. to show how weak their schedule has been, which bodes well for both the Chiefs and the Bills in the remaining four games.

While the chart says the Pats are tied for the 27th easiest S.O.S in the NFL this year, there is really only one other team — the Washington Redskins — who have an easier S.O.S.. That should screw opinions about th 2019 Pats.

Would You, Could You… accept that Patrick Mahomes has become a “Game Manager” this season? While it’s clear that the injuries he’s had to his ankle and knee have hampered his performance, it’s hard to tell if that’s what’s holding him back from having another… 50 TDs and 5,000 yards… season? Right now, Mahomes is on pace to produce: 28 TDs and 4,176 yards passing… in 14 games (which translates to 32 TDs and 4,772 passing yards in 16 games (if he were to have played that many game this year).

Now, I’m in no way complaining about 32 and 4,772 because those are great numbers. They just don’t represent the same pace as in 2018. In Alex Smith’s last year in K.C. he had 26 TDs and 4,000 yards passing and while I’d never want to mistake Mahomes for Smith, those numbers are not dramatically different.

The point is, Alex Smith was always called a “Game Manager” while in K.C. so… is that what Mahomes has become? A game manager? Let’s be clear, I never thought being a game manager was a negative thing, but Mahomes magic of 2018 has been harder to come by this year, even though we all know he can turn it on at any given time. I’m just wondering, is anyone else seeing what I’m seeing? Take a look at ProFootballFocus’ breakdown of the best QBs in 2019 so far:

To be fair, if we’re going to put Tom Brady under the scrutiny we’re putting him under here, then shouldn’t we question what’s going on with Patrick Mahomes? I don’t know how Mahomes fell out of PFF’s top ten because I still think of him as a top five guy… even the best NFL QB out there. I know some of you are thinking, how can he call Mahomes a game manager but still think he’s the best QB out there? Mostly because of last year.

I believe Terez Paylor when he says that the Chiefs signed Spencer Ware because Reid doesn’t fully trust Darwin Thompson in pass protection… yet. That statement is not so much about DTrain as it is about Mahomes and his OL. Reid needs a RB who can provide what his OL can’t, especially when other teams blitz or call stunts. He needs a RB who can read those kinds of DL tricks and still protect PMII’s fanny. I doubt you’ll see anymore quarterback sneaks this season either.

If I had a franchise and could choose any player to start a team with, it would be Patrick Mahomes: he has too many skills and positive intangibles to not do so. I’m just not seeing the same player I saw last year and I’m wondering how much of that really has to do with his injuries?

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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