With the 2018 National Football League Draft complete, the Kansas City Chiefs roster is coming into shape, and their season is coming into focus… kind of. It’s really kind of fuzzy, actually. Vegas’ Oddsharks has the Chiefs winning 7.5 games this season… NFL.com’s Elliott Harrison has the Chiefs listed as the 17th best in their current Power Rankings… but to listen to a lot of fans, the Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl this year.
I never place a lot value in the Vegas odds-makers because they’ve under-rated the Reid-led Chiefs in each season he’s been here… all winning seasons. Elliott Harrison has missed a time or two… and I’m being incredibly gracious. However, the Kansas City fans who believes this year’s version is headed to the Super Bowl… well, I just can’t get a bead on this team so it’s hard to say. In fact, it may be harder this year to project what will happen with this year’s team than with any team in a recent memory (now, I know you think my “memory” is not that good anyway so that’s not saying much, but I can still recall when Maury Wills stole 104 bases in 1962, so please, cut me a little slack).
What I can confirm is… that this year, I spend more time “hoping” it works out with more players on the squad than ever before. THAT… is the basis upon which I say, the Kansas City Chiefs are unpredictable.
Unpredictable Players Already on the Roster
- Safety Eric Berry- oh wait, he’s a 29 year old returning from an Achilles tendon injury and surgery so we can only hope he’s as good as he used to be (even though we should never doubt Eric Berry… that’s really kind of like doubting that Moses came down from the mountain with the tablets).
- QB Patrick Mahomes– oh wait, he’s really just a red-shirt freshman this year. He’s played a total of one NFL game and so may fans have him in the Hall of Fame already. Mahomes has only completed 23 passes so far in the NFL and one of those was to an opposing player. We can only hope he’ll be at least that good in 2018.
- OLB Justin Houston – yes, from 2012 through 2014, JH averaged 14.3 sacks per game… but, since then he’s averaged 7.0 per game. A secondary, but no less disturbing, fact about Houston is his salary structure for several years: 2017: $16.35M — 2018: $14.75M, 2019: $15.25M — 2020: $17.0M. I’m thinking… I could HOPE he returns to his 14.5 average sack level all I want… but in all likelihood, it ain’t gonna happen. JH is also 29 years old.
What is Predictable in 2018 Chiefs
- RB Kareem Hunt- Hunt was the NFL’s leading rusher in 2017 and with the addition of Sammy Watkins and the expected increased focus on the passing game (which takes the defensive focus off of Hunt), he should have another stellar year on the ground. In fact, we should be able to predict an increase in his receiving yards as well.
- WR Tyreek Hill– Hill will still be fast. What do they say… you can’t teach speed. Hill should increase his numbers in 2018 even though he may have fewer targets.
- TE Travis Kelce– Kelce is the best tight end in the game. Linebackers can’t keep up with him and… DBs aren’t tall enough to cover him and… women adore him, oh wait, ignore that last part. His numbers should be excellent again this year. Bank it.
- RT Mitchell Schwartz– Schwartzy will always be the best Offensive lineman on this team. He’s even good against the best OLBs in the game like Von Miller. That always makes me smile. A lot.
- DE Chris Jones– Jones will bring the power-and-light show. He can be powerful on the field… and bring lightness off the field. That much can be counted on.
Maybe there is a difference between a “sure thing” and a player we can “count on” but it’s lost on me. I think those five players are the only sure things on this team. Everyone else’s performance in 2018 is filled with… “Gee, I sure hope he….”
Vet Unpredictables for the 2018 Season
- Allen Bailey– I am hoping a second offseason since his pectoral tear will see him coming back and dominating tackles like we’ve seen in years prior to 2017.
- Dee Ford– he may be in a contract year and if he preforms well this season I will have to think that is the reason and would consequently be fine with the Chiefs allowing him to move on.
- Eric Murray– I have a long shot-hope that Murray will begin to act like a Safety… but my hope is fading.
- The LG Position– I hope the Chiefs find someone who can fill the weak link on the OL… or all the other good work that the offensive linemen are doing could be lost. One bad apple….
- The 3rd WR Position– you can only hope that one of the Chiefs other wideouts not named Hill or Watkins shows up to excel and give Patrick Mahomes a critical 3rd WR-ing target. With Albert Wilson gone it’s up to one of these to step up: Demarcus Robinson (no proof yet), Chris Conley (see Eric Berry Achilles above), Jehu Chesson, De’Anthony Thomas (I stopped hoping that DAT would be the difference maker a year ago), Marcus Kemp (last offseason’s WR super-hero and someone I hope gets the job but I recognize it’s a long shot), Gehrig Dieter, Nelson Spruce, Daniel Braverman, and Branden Shippen.
- Backup to Starters– I’m hoping that previous John Dorsey selections in the draft like Ukeme Eligwe or Tanoh Kpassagnon can shed their “development player” tags to realize their potential.
- Starting LBs– I’m hoping that both Reggie Ragland and Anthony Hitchens become “All That They Can Be” so that the Chiefs defense will return to a run-shut-down-defense. Until that happens… it’s just a hope.
While we can readily believe that Kendall Fuller will be a shutdown corner from the outside or the slot based upon his play last season… we certainly hope that he continues down that path. Beyond the addition of Fuller there are…
The Chiefs New Kids in Town
- DT Xavier Williams– a career backup who is also a home town kid from the KC area… we can hope he has the chops to step up into a starting role on the interior of the Chiefs defensive line.
- CB David Amerson– you can hope that ex-Raider David Amerson becomes an excellent man-coverage corner but it’s hard believing he’ll be that in Sutton’s defense. But, we can hope.
- OLB/DE Breeland Speaks– Speaks looks like a tough guy who can give us a good replacement value for Tamba Hali… I hope.
- DT Derrick Nnadi– Nnadi may well become the starter. I like him more than the X-man but you can’t hang your hat on expectations without production.
- The Rest of the 2018 Draft Picks– they all look like excellent picks to me… but short of drafting a top ten player… we don’t know what we can count on.
It’s a bit telling when your punter and kicker are both part of the group who can be counted on. I have great hope for the 2018 Kansas City Chiefs overall. I even think they could win the AFC West again for the third year straight. We just won’t know… until we know.
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