2021 Offseason Support for Mahomes: Improved, or Not

With the 2021 offseason coming to a close, it’s time to see just how much the Kansas City Chiefs have improved, or not improved each position group that surrounds Patrick Mahomes. We still could see GM Brett Veach make a move or two prior to Training camp in less than three weeks now, but for the most part, the team that will be in place come September 12, vs the Cleveland Browns, is the team Mahomes will have surrounding him when camp begins in less than 3 weeks.

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Offensive Line

Orland Brown = 9.9

Mahomes Left Tackle and blind side protector will be Orlando Brown. In the three short years of his career in Baltimore, Brown already has as many Pro Bowl berths (2) as the Chiefs previous starter at Left tackle, Eric Fisher had in 8 years. While Fish was 6-foot7 and 315 lbs., he was good in space, and perhaps a better as a run blocker than Orlando Brown. Brown, a 6-foot-8, 350 lbs. behemoth, should give the mobile Patrick Mahomes all the protection he needs having only surrendered 5 sacks and 6 QB Hits in 48 career games, and 2,893 snaps.

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If you follow my Snaps-Per stat, that works out to 263 snaps for every sack or QB hit combined  (–-> 2,893 ÷ 11 = 263). While we know that over the past two seasons, Aaron Donald is one of the best sack artists in the game, he gets to the QB (sacks plus QB Hits) once every 23.4 snaps (1827 snaps ÷ 78 = 23.4). So, you can see that if Brown is holding DEs to this low lack of production, it bodes well for Mahomes. Brown is also versatile, having gained Pro Bowl bids at both RT and LT positions.

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Joe Thuney = 9.9

We assume Thuney will get the nod at LG. Thuney hasn’t missed a start in his 5-year career and took 100% of the offensive snaps for N.E. in his first three years, then 99% in 2019, and 97% in 2020. He’s Mr. Consistency getting called for only 3 penalties last year. Also, in 2020 Thuney allowed just 2 sacks and 2 QB Hits in 979 snaps (which works out to 244.75 snaps per Sack or QB Hit).

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Creed Humphrey = 9.6

The Center position will be covered by either rookie Creed Humphrey, who gave up no sacks in three years as a starter at OU (protecting some very mobile QBs) or by Austin Blythe. Blythe is another model of consistency and played in 100% of the Rams offensive snaps at RG in 2018, 90% of their O-snaps in 2019 once again at RG, then 100% of the Rams OC snaps in 2020. That also means Blythe is another versatile player and I won’t be at all surprised to see him begin the season as the Chiefs starting RG.

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Blythe/Smith = 8.2

At Right Guard, LDT returns and while he didn’t have a very good 2019 as a Chiefs player, as a doctor, he took last season off to care for others during the pandemic. That also might means he’s had a year of rest, while other may call it a year of rust. Either way, he’ll be in the mix at RG. Also, Kyle Long was signed and although he’s been hurt already, he’s a player who’s made the Pro Bowl. Then again, he retired after the 2019 season and hasn’t played more than 48% of the snaps since 2015, the last year he made the Pro Bowl. As mentioned, Austin Blythe is in the mix at RG as well and so is rookie Trey Smith, who is much better than his draft position would indicate, a 6th rounder, selection #226.

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Remmers/Niang = 7.8

Right tackle will likely be handled early on by veteran OT, Mike Remmers. While Remmers isn’s a fan favorite right now, because of his Super Bowl LV performance, when paired with other offensive linemen of high quality — which now exists across the board — Remmers should be very good this year. Lucas Niang may also be in the mix, but Niang may also be the designated Swing Tackle, so Orlando Brown will have a solid backup at Left tackle.

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9.0 thumbs up averaged out (45.5 ÷ 5)… for the “improvement” of the offensive line across the board. Not only is the OL dramatically better than the Chiefs starting OL from Super Bowl LV, but this line will be head and shoulders better than the one that began the 2020 season. That should make Patrick Mahomes one incredibly productive quarterback. In fact, based upon the OL upgrades this offseason, and Mahomes’ apparently excellent rehab coming off of turf toe surgery, I predict he’ll break his own records for passing yards in a season (5,097) and TDs in a season (50).

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Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill = 9.9

Tyreek Hill will again be one of the best wideouts in the NFL, but may have a few less receiving yards than in 2020. In 2018 Hill had 1,479 receiving yards on 137 targets and 87 receptions and two years later, in 2020, Hill had 135 targets and 87 receptions for 1,276 receiving yards. That means, teams have figured out how to keep him from going long as often, but not from stopping him from catching the ball.

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Mecole Hardman = 9.1

Hardman is kind of in a make or break season. I say, “kind of” because if he doesn’t break out in 2021, he may end up getting a series of one-year deals like Demarcus Robinson has gotten from the Chiefs, which is not the future he’s wanting, I’m sure. This year, he’ll be expected to help pick up any slack as a result of Sammy Watkins leaving town.

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Byron Pringle = 8.9

Pringle — a 2018 UDFA for K.C. — had a breakout training camp three years back. He had 144 yards on 4 catches — with a long one of 62 yards — versus the Packers in the last preseason game, but he ended up a hamstring injury and was out for that entire season (2018). Now, after a couple of quality seasons working mainly on Special Teams — 434 ST snaps over the past two seasons — he’s ready to pick up where he left off at WR in 2018. Pringle is a 4.46 40 man who has also had 382 Offensive snaps over the past two season so, he could be the main WR who ends up replacing Sammy Watkins.

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Demarcus Robinson = 7.9

Robinson was the Chiefs 4th round pick in the 2016 draft, #126 overall, and has had these receiving numbers in each year since: 0, 212, 288, 449, and 466. He signed a rookie deal which took care of his first three seasons, but has been on a one-year deal ever since. He makes timely catches and seems to be exactly where he’s supposed to be for QB Mahomes, but also has his fair share of the dropsies. He’s caught 120 passes out of 186 targets for a 64% career catch rate, which, if you’re keeping score at home, is not very good. Is he hoping to get some of Sammy’s targets? Sure, but I’m not so sure I’m looking forward to the results. Although, I must report that DRob had a 76.6% catch rate in 2020.

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Although many, including myself, are hoping for big things from this DK Metcalf-lite WR out of Clemson, it’s surely not going to happen in his rookie year, as is usually the case with first year wideouts. As you may recall, pictures of a ripped Metcalf appeared on the internet prior to his being taken in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft, 64th overall. However, Metcalf has had more than 2,220 yards receiving in his first two seasons and if Powell averages half that mount in year’s one and two, I’d be very happy. Right now, I project about 400-to-500 yards his rookie year, and that would even really be quite something. However, please don’t limit that guy who’ll be pitching the ball to him.

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Antonio Callaway = 8.0

Callaway is a WR who has run the 40 in 4.41 seconds, played three years in the NFL, has 972 snaps on offense, and should end up in the WR mix as someone who makes this squad. He was suspended by the league for 10 games for violating the league’s substance policy, but we know Andy Reid’s middle names are “Second” and “Chance.” Callaway was carted off the field in an XFL game last year, but if he’s still got that 4.41 speed, he has a chance to be a roster maker in K.C.. Plus, his time at Florida was noteworthy:

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All Other WRs = 8.1

The Chiefs have a bevy of other WRs who are vying for a spot on this roster. Among those who I haven’t already mentioned are: Marcus Kemp (at 6-foot-4, large enough to spend time at TE), Jody Fortson (6-foot-6, 230 lbs. who could also play TE at times), Gehrig Dieter (friend of PMII but not sure he has a future in the NFL), Maurice Ffrench (2020 UDFA, 4 year player at Pitt, 156 receptions, 1,637 yards, 10 TDs, 4.40 speed), Darrius Shepherd (2 years in Green Bay, but only 96 snaps per year and 4.61 40 time are strikes against him), Chad Williams (3 years in the NFL with 543 snaps on offense plus 4.43 speed, all pluses on his part), Dalton Schoen (rookie out of Kansas State, 4.44 to 4.48 range in the 40), and Chris Finke (rookie UDFA out of Notre Dame with 4.57 speed). The 8.1 grade comes from a vague understanding when comparing to all other team’s available backup WRs.

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It’s clear that Brett Veach is continuing to stock the WR room with backups who could all step up in the event of any injuries happening to the Chiefs starting WRs. While 8.51 doesn’t seem like a very high grade, remember, the Chiefs #1 WR — Tyreek Hill — has gotten the vast majority of the catches over the past couple of years, and we’re hoping that Hardman or Pringle step up this season to help replace Watkins.

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Tight Ends

Travis Kelce = 9.9

Superlatives are all I have for Travis Kelce. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say ti again… he will one day widely be considered the best tight end in football history.

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Nick Keizer = 7.4

Keizer was a UDFA with the Ravens in 2018, then signed with K.C. in 2019. He had 6 catches for 63 yards last year, but was primarily used as a blocking TE on 302 offensive snaps. He also had 263 ST snaps in 2020.

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Blake Bell = 8.0

Any time a player leaves the Chiefs… then returns, it’s all pluses on my grade card. While Bell hasn’t lit it up in his time in K.C. — 8 catches in 2019 for 67 yards — he has the potential to end up being the best #2 TE in the Andy Reid era. That is, unless that designation goes to…

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Noah Gray = 8.3

Gray was a tight end drafted this year out of Duke University who played there four seasons. While I don’t usually expect rookies in Reid’s offense to excel in year one, Gray may get increasingly more snaps as the year progresses and then K.C. will have another weapon over the middle come playoff time. Gray is expected to be a mostly pass catching TE, in part because he has very good hands. Anyone who can consistently hold onto the ball is going to get more snaps in Reid’s offense. Period.

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Evan Baylis = NG

Baylis was rated the 19th best TE UDFA prospect following he 2017 NFL draft. He’s been with three other teams since then. I won’t be surprised if he’s cut before the end of camp and replaced by a player at another position. [NG = No Grade]

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Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire = 9.2

CEH is going to be a better back in 2021 than he was in 2020. Significantly statistically better. In math, when you compare any two sets of data, if one of those sets of data are two standard deviations different than another set, it’s called, “statistically significantly better” and I think that’s what will happen with CEH’s stats this year compared to last. Last offseason, CEH didn’t have the offensive playbook when the team broke away from their team zoom meetings in the spring, and then waited for training camp to begin. CEH has also had a full year now to not only digest the playbook, but a full “normal” offseason to take in any and all changes Andy Reid is making in his offense.

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Darrel Williams = 8.8

Darrel Williams is 26 years old, was a 4 year player at LSU where he was a team captain and is now perhaps the most under-appreciated member of the Kansas City Chiefs. He was a 2018 UDFA for K.C. and has played in 34 games in 3 seasons. He was the backup at LSU to Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice and Sporting News says DWill: “might well be the poster child for the next man up.” Darrel Williams has had 354 yards rushing for K.C. in three years, but also has 310 yard receiving during his time with the Chiefs.

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Jerrick McKinnon = 8.8

McKinnon was a wonderful signing by Brett Veach. He presumably to take the place of Damien Williams. McKinnon has 4.41 speed, which is faster than Damien Williams, and is 29 years old with 5+ year experience. McKinnon gives Reid a nice change-of-pace back who can challenge defenses on the edges and will help stretch the field wide and deep.

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FB Michael Burton = NG

Gone is Anthony Sherman, in is Michael Burton. If Reid has plans for a FB on the roster, Burton is the only one listed, so he should get the call.

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Other RBs = NG

There are a number of running backs who are competing for perhaps the RB #4 spot, if Reid keeps that many. Darwin Thompson has not distinguished himself in his first two seasons as a drafted player so I expect him to be cut. Other RBs include: Elijah McGuire and Derrick Gore and I expect one of them, at least, to end up on the Chiefs Practice Squad. My prediction? Gore.

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Grading Summary

As a classroom teacher for almost 40 years, I will share with you that I never handed out grades of 100% (unless someone got every question right on a multiple choice test) and that’s because, I don’t believe in the idea of “perfect.” So, it’s rare that I’d be leaning towards a grade like that. Consequently, I can’t see fit to offer a guy like Travis Kelce a 10 out of 10. If we do that, aren’t we basically saying theres no room for improvement? So, you might want to keep that in mind, before you decide to lay into me for some of my scores. That said, I consider my grading system to be quite generous otherwise.

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While the offseason changes have come as a result of improving the offensive line, that kind of team growth that is a game changer for all other offensive positions. If the Chiefs had NOT fixed their offensive line this offseason, advancements in the running game would not be as possible and the same goes for the wide receiver position. By making the OL priority one, not only does QB Patrick Mahomes get the protection and time he needs to operate behind the line of scrimmage, but the running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers will get the time they need to operate beyond the line of scrimmage. This offseason was a win-win-win-win situation for every offensive position group and I don’t know if I’ve ever been as excited to see a season get started, as I am for this one.

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What’s your take? Have the Chiefs improved their support for Patrick Mahomes this offseason? Or not?

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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